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LCZ423 851 Pm Edt Wed Sep 6 2023
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters...
the areas affected include...
detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie...
at 848 pm edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to up 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 16 nm west of lake erie metropark harbor to 8 nm northwest of Monroe harbor to near luna pier, moving northeast at 20 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near, Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, woodland beach, and detroit beach around 855 pm edt. Stony point around 900 pm edt. Lake erie metropark harbor, estral beach, and gibraltar around 910 pm edt. Detroit river light around 915 pm edt. Elizabeth park marina and wyandotte around 920 pm edt. Grosse ile around 925 pm edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions...
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
these strong Thunderstorms will likely produce winds up to 30 knots, and could pose a serious hazard for boaters. A special marine warning may eventually be required when these storms reach the nearshore waters. Boaters should consider heading for shore before these storms arrive.
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lat...lon 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4226 8317 4233 8311 4238 8294 4235 8293 4232 8307 4224 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 231039 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 639 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023


AVIATION

Surface observations have reported nothing more than minor shallow ground fog at a few locations this morning. Will continue to mention br/hz the first hour, otherwise any fog will rapidly dissipate. An upper level blocking pattern will support surface ridging over Southeast Michigan through tonight. A concerted push of drier and cooler air between 3.0 and 12.0 kft agl is expected to result in more clear skies for today. SKC with light easterly winds are expected tonight.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 359 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

DISCUSSION...

Tropical Storm Ophelia moves inland up the east coast today after making landfall on the coast of North Carolina while a mid/upper level closed low moves over the northern plains. A northern stream trough will also be moving across eastern Canada. Southeast Michigan will be pinned between these features through this weekend which will result in ridging over the CWA that keeps weather conditions relatively quiet.

There are some high clouds spilling into Michigan from Wisconsin early this morning downstream of a weak shortwave feature and associated showers. These could hamper some patchy fog development across southeast Michigan if they hold together, though the lower dewpoints leading to larger dew point depressions across have been a greater limiting factor for any fog development thus far. A surface ridge drifts across the south end of the Hudson Bay today maintaining a relatively dry easterly flow over southeast Michigan. Today is expected to remain dry, though am hesitant to have a 0 POP forecast given the development of showers and even some thunder yesterday that were generated in a weakly capped/weakly forced/easterly flow environment. Today however, will see stronger ridging and a stronger cap that leads to keeping any mention of precipitation out of the forecast. The ridging will lock in the airmass for this weekend resulting in daytime highs today and tomorrow in the low to mid 70s range.

A weak backdoor cold front will be drawn south into the central Great Lakes Sunday afternoon/evening by the aforementioned surface high over Hudson Bay/northern Ontario. The lack of moisture and forcing tied to the front will should keep another dry day in the forecast for Sunday. Temperatures for a few locations for Monday will come down slightly into the upper 60s with the persistent cooler east to northeast flow. The next chance for precipitation comes Monday/Tuesday as models point toward a shortwave being drawn into MI from the south into the weakening Midwest low as it drifts southeast. Confidence in timing this interaction is low at this time, so will maintain some low end chances for Monday/Tuesday given the uncertainty. Temperatures mainly in the 60s for midweek with greater cloud coverage will result from the troughing over the region.

MARINE...

The western periphery of a high pressure system will continue to provide dry weather along with lighter winds through the day. Wind direction from the southeast will back to the east-northeast through the afternoon and evening. There will then be a modest increase in the pressure gradient over the Great Lakes tomorrow in response to Tropical Storm Ophelia riding up the Atlantic coast. This will reinforce northeast flow over the Great Lakes while bringing some elevated wind gusts during the afternoon and evening. Small Craft Advisories will be in consideration mainly for the Saginaw Bay as wave heights near four feet.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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