Dearborn, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dearborn, MI

April 12, 2024 4:36 PM EDT (20:36 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:53 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM
Moonrise 8:06 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 851 Pm Edt Wed Sep 6 2023

.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters - .
the areas affected include - .
detroit river - . Michigan waters of lake erie - .
at 848 pm edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to up 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 16 nm west of lake erie metropark harbor to 8 nm northwest of Monroe harbor to near luna pier, moving northeast at 20 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near, Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, woodland beach, and detroit beach around 855 pm edt. Stony point around 900 pm edt. Lake erie metropark harbor, estral beach, and gibraltar around 910 pm edt. Detroit river light around 915 pm edt. Elizabeth park marina and wyandotte around 920 pm edt. Grosse ile around 925 pm edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
these strong Thunderstorms will likely produce winds up to 30 knots, and could pose a serious hazard for boaters. A special marine warning may eventually be required when these storms reach the nearshore waters. Boaters should consider heading for shore before these storms arrive.
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lat - .lon 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4226 8317 4233 8311 4238 8294 4235 8293 4232 8307 4224 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341

LCZ400
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dearborn, MI
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 121931 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 331 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A Wind Advisory is in effect until Midnight tonight. Northwest wind gusts peak around 45 mph with localized 50-55 mph gusts possible early this evening in the Thumb.

- Widespread rain continues today with highest rainfall amounts across the Thumb. Rainfall will taper off from southwest to northeast through the evening, fully exiting the Thumb between 10 PM to Midnight.

- Wind intensity decreases overnight, but breezy conditions continue tomorrow with gusts up to 30 mph. Isolated gusts to 35 mph possible.

- Thunderstorms are possible Sunday as a weak low pressure system and cold front track through the area.

DISCUSSION

Rapid deepening of low pressure has commenced over the past 12-24 hours characterized by a 1000-500mb 12 hr height change down to 13 dam, where a now 977 mb low now sits over western Ontario. To put this in perspective, a low of this strength for this time of year falls outside all of climatology w.r.t the CFSR data. An uncharacteristically strong low level jet has and will continue to increase in intensity along the western flank of the departing low pressure system through the remaining afternoon and evening hours.
With several hours of diurnal heating remaining, shallow mixing depths will continue to tap into the llj, producing 45-50 mph wind gusts. Isolated peak gusts to 55 mph cannot be ruled out across SE MI, but this is more favorable across the Thumb and especially along the shoreline given the peak jet maxima location resides across this area. This location also has favorable isentropic downglide and west- northwest flow off the bay/lake. Wind gust intensity will wind down between 8PM-10PM EDT, where the wind advisory is then expected to expire.

Rain showers will also recede from southwest to northeast through the remainder of the day, fully exiting the Thumb between 10PM - Midnight. Visible satellite has been interesting to observe through the day which highlights the west-northwest surface to 600mb flow, juxtaposed by the southeast to northwest upper-level flow from 400mb- 300mb. Vertical wind profiles highlight the elevated nature of this frontal boundary through h300, which is one mechanism for the ongoing precipitation, with additional support from the PV features with the low, fed with a surge of wrap around moisture.

The loss of diurnal heating late tonight and overnight will produce a shallow stable layer through 200 ft which will cut off the stronger winds aloft, although the pressure gradient will still support sustained winds of 15-20 mph through the mid-morning hours.
Gusts to 30-35 will also remain possible with any brief neutrality to the stable layer. Otherwise, a PV filament will swiftly move over MI between 06Z-12Z, and behind it, subsidence with a deep dry layer ribbon. This will help support clearing trends by daybreak, with stability further reinforced from surface to mid-level ridging. This will set the stage for sunny skies tomorrow, albeit still breezy.
Diurnal heating will tap into a weaker wind field aloft, producing gusts 25-30 mph, isolated up to 35 mph. Peak gusts will be favored in the late morning to early afternoon, waning into the evening hours.

Dry conditions will continue into early Sunday morning, with a clipper low pressure system bringing the chance for elevated rain showers focused over the Tri-Cities and Thumb. Thunderstorms also remain a possibility with mid-level lapse rates near 7C/km and MUCAPE values aoa 500 J/kg. Will maintain PoPs around 50% across the Tri-Cities and Thumb, down to 20% closer to the M59 corridor, given uncertainties with how far south precipitation will expand as top down saturation will have to overcome a stout low-level dry layer.
Zonal flow behind the low will advect milder air into SE MI, promoting daytime high temperatures in the 70s. Low-end shower and storm chances will exist Sunday afternoon and early evening on the boundary of a cold front favored away from the Tri-Cities and Thumb.
If storms come to fruition they will bare watching given favorable daytime time heating with 40 knot 1-6 km bulk shear in place. Warmer than normal temperatures will carry on into the midweek period along with a brief period of dry weather. Rain and thunderstorm chances increase Tuesday and Wednesday in response to lee cyclogenesis that will develop and push a low pressure system into the Midwest.

MARINE

Strong low pressure (977 mb) along the Ontario/Quebec border this afternoon, but the low has pretty much bottom out and should begin to slowly weaken as it moves off into Quebec. Solid gale force wind gusts across the Central Great Lakes, and still several more hours for winds to increase as further cold advection occurs. There will likely be a few isolated gusts over central/northern Lake Huron, but do not see the duration long enough to support storm warning.
Widespread rain may also help with precipitation drag.

Gradient gradually loosens over the course of Saturday as the low slides into Quebec with weak surface high pressure building in its wake. While winds likewise slowly weaken, gale potential lingers over northern/central Lake Huron into early Saturday afternoon.
Calmer conditions take hold by Saturday night before a much weaker low drops out of Canada into the central Great Lakes Sunday. System brings chances for additional light showers and a few thunderstorms daytime Sunday. No wind headlines expected with this system as gusts generally top out around 20kts.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 210 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

AVIATION...

MVFR conditions will prevail for much of the afternoon with southeast Michigan experiencing overcast skies, rain, and gusty winds on the western end of the departing low pressure. W-NW wind gust potential peaks around 21Z with gusts to around 40 knots that last until about 8-9 pm this evening. Gusts to around 40 knots result from slightly better mixing that develops. VFR conditions will develop this evening as dry air begins to push in and scatters out the rain and low clouds. Expect gusts to hold at around 25-30 knots tonight and persist out of the W-NW.

For DTW... High confidence in west to northwest wind gusts reaching at least into the 35-40 knot range this afternoon. Light showers and MVFR ceilings will linger. Ceilings expected to lift towards lower VFR this evening.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for cigs at or below 5k ft through this afternoon. Low to Moderate this evening.

* High for west-northwest wind gusts reaching cross wind thresholds this afternoon.



DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ047>049-053>055- 060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron...Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ421-422-441>443- 462>464.

Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT Saturday for LHZ361>363.

Lake St Clair...Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT Saturday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ444.

Low Water Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ444.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 18 mi37 min W 20G31 50°F 29.42
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 38 mi37 min W 32G38 51°F 29.4743°F
AGCM4 39 mi49 min 49°F 43°F29.34
TWCO1 47 mi37 min SW 37G47 52°F 46°F


Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KDET COLEMAN A YOUNG MUNI,MI 10 sm23 minWNW 17G3410 smOvercast Lt Rain 54°F43°F67%29.42
KVLL OAKLAND/TROY,MI 11 sm21 minWNW 19G3010 smOvercast Lt Rain 52°F43°F71%29.45
CYQG WINDSOR,CN 14 sm8 minW 22G399 smOvercast50°F45°F82%29.44
KDTW DETROIT METROPOLITAN WAYNE COUNTY,MI 14 sm33 minW 23G329 smOvercast Lt Rain 50°F45°F82%29.47
KONZ GROSSE ILE MUNI,MI 19 sm21 minWNW 22G2910 smOvercast Lt Rain 52°F45°F76%29.47
KYIP WILLOW RUN,MI 20 sm4 minW 26G3310 smOvercast Lt Rain 52°F45°F76%29.51
KPTK OAKLAND COUNTY INTL,MI 23 sm43 minWNW 24G3910 smOvercast Lt Rain 48°F43°F81%29.42
Link to 5 minute data for KDET


Wind History from DET
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Tide / Current for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of great lakes   
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Detroit, MI,



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