Monday, August26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gurnee, IL

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:09AMSunset 7:37PM Monday August 26, 2019 2:37 AM CDT (07:37 UTC) Moonrise 1:31AMMoonset 5:03PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- 943 Pm Cdt Sun Aug 25 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 am cdt Monday through Monday evening...
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 kt. Chance of showers through the night. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Monday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 kt. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Monday night..South winds 15 to 20 kt becoming southwest after midnight. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 3 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 20 kt. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ740 Expires:201908261015;;214684 FZUS53 KLOT 260243 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 943 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740-741-261015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gurnee, IL
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location: 42.38, -87.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 260549
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
1249 am cdt Mon aug 26 2019

Update
901 pm cdt
few changes to going forecast. First, increased precip chances and
amounts late tonight into Monday morning. GOES imagery and
regional WSR-88D mosaic show a well defined convectively enhanced
vorticity maximum pushing eastward across northern mo. Short range
numerical guidance generally seems to be handling this feature
well and there's good agreement in blossoming area of showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms across northern il overnight into
Monday morning. Already seeing a gradual increase in coverage of
showers in advance of the vort MAX across eastern ia and western
mo, and this trends seems likely to continue overnight as 20-30kt
low level flow off the deck transports very moist air north in
advance of this feature. High freezing levels and weak instability
would tend to support pretty efficient warm rain processes, which
could allow for some locally heavy rainfall totals Monday morning,
particularly with any convective elements that develop. Could see
some totals exceeding an inch by time this first wave of rain ends
early-mid afternoon. Antecedent conditions have generally been
pretty dry, so not anticipating widespread flooding problems,
though antecedent conditions are far less important in urban
areas, so if the localized heavy rain does indeed develop and sets
up right over an urban area there could be some flash flood
issues. Certainly nothing that suggests a headline at this time.

Widespread rain and low cloudiness through early afternoon should
slow the northward progress of warm front Monday and have adjusted
hourly temps to keep temps in the 60s to around 70 in the rain and
then delayed the high temps until late in the afternoon. Updated
grids and forecast text products have all been sent.

- izzi

Short term
233 pm cdt
through Monday...

the primary weather story through the period will be the
increasing chances for rain across the area late tonight and into
Monday.

The main weather maker of interest for our area into Monday is the
mid upper level disturbance currently shifting over northwestern
mo, per water vapor imagery. This feature is expected to shift
east-northeastward over il on Monday as a larger scale trough
begins to dig over the northern plains and the upper great lakes.

As it does so, a corridor of deep gulf moisture (featuring
precipitable water values around 2") will be transported
northward up the mississippi valley tonight into Monday morning,
essentially setting up the ingredients for a wet morning across
the area.

While some scattered sprinkles, or light rain showers, will be
possible across the area late this afternoon and evening, it
appears the better moisture will not arrive until after midnight.

Therefore, we should see an uptick in shower activity later this
evening and overnight as warm moisture air advection (isentropic
upglide) continues to increase. The shower coverage will likely
peak in coverage around, or just prior to, daybreak through late
morning when the upper level disturbance moves over the area. Some
moderate to heavy rain rates will be possible with these showers
as they should be very efficient rainfall producers. This could
result in some minor localized flooding issues. Otherwise, shower
activity should become more widely scattered during the afternoon.

There is also a chance for a few embedded thunderstorms with this
activity, but lapse rates are expected to remain rather poor, so
thunderstorms should remain limited.

Another chance of showers and thunderstorms is likely Monday night
in association with the approach of a cold front.

Given we will see a great deal of cloud cover and some rain
Monday, temperatures will likely remain in the 70s.

Kjb

Long term
308 pm cdt
Monday night through Sunday...

Monday night: an upper trough axis within a developing upper low
over far southeast manitoba will shift east across the CWA during
this time. Meanwhile, as associated surface low will push a cold
front across the area. A few showers and possibly a thunderstorm may
be ongoing early Monday evening in response to increasing low-level
flow and resultant WAA moisture transport ahead of the approaching
trough front. Shower and storm activity will increase across eastern
ia and northeast missouri early in the evening and expand NE into
the forecast area through the remainder of the evening into the
overnight hours.

The dynamics with this system will be seasonably strong for late
august. Meanwhile, a modestly unstable evening airmass will be
present owing to increasing mid-level lapse rates and surface
moisture. This will support broken clusters of convection along the
front and trough axis that may contain strong to marginally severe
wind gusts. Additionally, high pwat values and a deep layer below
the freezing level support very heavy rain with any thunderstorm.

Some training along the front implies at least some localized
flooding risk.

Tuesday and Wednesday: any lingering showers across the eastern cwa
at daybreak Tuesday should quickly exit to the east as the cold
front and upper trough axis clear the area. An upper low will form
and then stall over northern ontario through Wednesday, keeping the
area in continued cyclonic flow with embedded weak disturbances. With
an overall lack of moisture, the passing of any weak disturbances
should be inconsequential for precip and affect mainly just the mass
fields. The surface gradient flow between strong low pressure under
the upper low and high pressure extending into the ohio valley will
produce gusty west winds on Tuesday and especially Wednesday.

Thursday through Sunday: the upper low will begin to shift NE on
Tuesday ahead of a fast-moving trough within wnw flow aloft that
will brush the area to the north on Thursday night. An associated
cold front will then stall somewhere across illinois and indiana by
Friday through Saturday. Guidance differs on the exact location over
which it stalls, but at least slight chances pops are warranted both
days with the front in the vicinity. High pressure with seasonably
cool conditions will then build back into the region for Sunday.

Kluber

Aviation
For the 06z tafs...

a well defined upper level disturbance over northeastern mo will
continue moving eastward. Showers are developing in advance of
this system and should spread an area of rain and showers across
the terminals overnight and continuing through Monday morning.

Given the increasing moisture and fairly strong forcing, there may
be some periods of moderate to heavy rain Monday morning which
would bring visibility and CIGS down to ifr levels. Some embedded
tsra cannot be ruled out late tonight into Monday morning, but
weak instability and unfavorable timing, will continue to keep
mention of tsra out of the tafs.

The rain should help saturate the lower levels and with persistent
sely flow off of the lake and warm front to the south of the
terminals, conditions would support ifr CIGS developing Monday
morning and perhaps lingering into the afternoon. Diurnal warming
should allow CIGS to lift slowly Monday afternoon as the wave
moves east and the prevailing rain ends. A lull in activity is
expected for much of the afternoon as weak shortwave ridging
crosses the region as the first wave exits to the east and the
next system approaches from the west. Another round of shra tsra
is expected for Monday night, possibly beginning by late
afternoon or early evening. This second round of pcpn is likely to
have more tsra with increasing low level instability through the
afternoon hours and stronger forcing associated with a cold front
pushing across the region. There is some uncertainty to the exact
timing of the FROPA with some of the latest guidance suggesting a
slower progression to the system. However, regardless of the exact
timing of the fropa, a period of shra tsra is likely with lower
end MVFR or higher end ifr CIGS vis.

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... Beach hazards statement... Ilz006-ilz014 until 10 pm Monday.

In... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory... Winthrop harbor to northerly is. Until 10 pm Monday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45186 8 mi37 min ESE 14 G 18 71°F 72°F4 ft
45187 11 mi37 min SE 14 G 19 74°F 72°F4 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 16 mi37 min SSE 18 G 21 71°F 1013.5 hPa (-1.7)
45174 23 mi27 min ESE 16 G 19 72°F4 ft1011.6 hPa
FSTI2 32 mi97 min ESE 15 71°F
OKSI2 36 mi97 min SSE 4.1 G 9.9 72°F
45177 38 mi157 min 73°F1 ft
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 38 mi37 min SE 20 G 22 71°F 64°F
CNII2 40 mi37 min E 11 G 14 70°F 60°F
JAKI2 46 mi97 min SSE 2.9 G 11 72°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL5 mi4.7 hrsESE 810.00 miFair71°F57°F61%1014.9 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI15 mi2.7 hrsSE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F62°F71%1014.7 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi2.8 hrsESE 710.00 miOvercast73°F59°F62%1014.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUGN

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9SE8SE5SE5E4SE6SE8E11SE9SE10
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1 day agoNW3CalmCalmSE3SE4E9SE12SE8
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E9NE9E9NE8NE8NE7E9E7E7SE6SE7
2 days agoNE5NE4NE5NE6E8E9E8NE8E8NE7NE8
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NE9NE6N4N4CalmNW5NW4NW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.