Wednesday, August5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Gurnee, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:47AMSunset 8:07PM Wednesday August 5, 2020 8:17 PM CDT (01:17 UTC) Moonrise 9:38PMMoonset 7:36AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 254 Pm Cdt Wed Aug 5 2020
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 kt becoming west late. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thursday..Northeast winds around 5 kt becoming east in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming south after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 ft or less.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southeast 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ740 Expires:202008060315;;985549 FZUS53 KLOT 051954 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 254 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-060315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gurnee, IL
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location: 42.38, -87.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 052345 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 645 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

SHORT TERM. 253 PM CDT

Through Thursday night .

Continued quiet but not as cool conditions are expected over the next 36 hours. Despite steep low level lapse rates and a weak shortwave aloft supporting a robust cumulus field and a band of cirrus this afternoon, subsidence and dry air at mid levels are keeping a lid on any shower activity that might otherwise want to develop. Even so, some virga or a random sprinkle would not be a surprise into the early evening.

Overnight lows tonight and Thursday night will not be nearly as chilly as this morning but still a bit below seasonal norms. Highs Thursday look just a couple degrees warmer than today and in general tomorrow should be a near repeat of today, likely with greater cloud cover earlier in the day.

Lenning

LONG TERM. 325 PM CDT

Friday through Wednesday .

The pleasant, low humidity stretch of weather will come to an end on Friday, with warmer and more humid conditions over the weekend. Friday itself will have seasonably warm low to locally mid 80s (upper 70s shore), pleasantly low humidity as dew points mix out into the 50s-low 60s F and plenty of sun. Saturday will then see 850 mb temps surge into the upper teens Celsius, with 925 mb temps in the lower 20s C by later in the day. After a nice Friday night and a seasonable start to Saturday, high temps will jump to the mid to upper 80s with aforementioned increased humidity. The hot and humid day of the weekend will be Sunday, when high temperatures into the lower 90s and dew points into the 70s, except perhaps over the heart of the Chicago heat island, will yield peak heat indices near to around 100F, and locally slightly over 100F.

Convective chances over the weekend appear rather nebulous. An initial short-wave crossing the mid and upper MS Valley late Friday night into Saturday could outrun the instability axis, which will be primarily just to our west as of 12z Saturday. If any showers and storms make it into the CWA, question would be if there's any redevelopment in the afternoon and evening, as some guidance indicates fairly stout capping moving in. It appears that while set-up favors primarily isolated showers and thunderstorms, there would be a relatively greater threat into northwest, north central, and far northern Illinois. If any stronger updrafts can form PM hours, 25-30 kt of bulk shear may result in a few isolated stronger storms. Overall, would appear many areas should stay dry on Saturday. Height rises into Sunday would then likely keep convective coverage low/isolated at most through the daylight hours, with moderate to strongly unstable but likely capped air mass from a fairly stout EML.

While confidence is not all that high, next more apparent convective threat would be Sunday night into Monday ahead of a cold front. Would have to watch for an MCS approaching from the west during that time. Then depending on effects from any earlier convection, another round of showers and storms would be possible with the true cold front Monday afternoon-evening, possibly with some strong-severe (depending on deep layer shear magnitudes) and localized flood risk. Monday's low-level thermal progs would favor similarly warm temps to Sunday, but potential for more cloud cover and scattered convection may limit things slightly. Behind the front, the 12z suite indicated a drier trend on Tuesday and Tuesday evening, so nudged PoPs lower from NBM initialization. Predictability really decreases by mid next work week and beyond, as the 12z ECMWF suite indicates a benign dry and warm pattern may stick around for at least a few days, while the GFS has a much more active look.

Castro

AVIATION. For the 00Z TAFs .

Light and variable winds will be in place through tonight with light winds for Thursday as well. Am expecting more of an easterly direction to set up toward midday Thursday but speeds will only increase into the 5-7 kt range for the most part. VFR will continue with scattered to occasionally broken cumulus developing toward midday.

MDB

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 7 mi78 min SSE 11 G 12 72°F
45187 11 mi38 min S 9.7 G 12 71°F 71°F2 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 16 mi78 min S 12 G 14 71°F 1017.9 hPa (-0.4)
45174 23 mi18 min SSE 9.7 G 12 72°F 72°F2 ft1018 hPa (-0.7)59°F
OKSI2 36 mi138 min ESE 2.9 G 6 73°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 38 mi28 min SE 13 G 15 72°F 59°F
CNII2 40 mi33 min ESE 7 G 8.9 70°F 56°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 43 mi38 min SE 8.9 G 11 70°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL5 mi23 minESE 310.00 miOvercast70°F59°F68%1017.5 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI15 mi25 minSE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F57°F66%1018.4 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi26 minWNW 510.00 miOvercast75°F53°F46%1018.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUGN

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3SW3CalmCalmCalmW33SW4W3CalmCalm34SW74W5
G15
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G16
3SE8SE8SE6SE7SE3
1 day agoN6N6NE9N8
G16
NE7NW5NW5NW6NW54NW5N5N7
G16
NW75NW8NE9
G15
NE10NE7NE54N9
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NE7N3
2 days agoCalmN3NW3CalmNW3N5NW7N7N5N5--N6N5N54NW6N7N7
G16
6N6N8
G16
N4N7N6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.