Wednesday, January29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Gurnee, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 5:01PM Tuesday January 28, 2020 11:31 PM CST (05:31 UTC) Moonrise 10:25AMMoonset 9:48PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 923 Pm Cst Tue Jan 28 2020
Rest of tonight..North winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of flurries. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of flurries. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wednesday night..North winds 5 to 10 kt becoming northwest after midnight. Cloudy. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming west in the afternoon. Cloudy. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ740 Expires:202001291015;;675475 FZUS53 KLOT 290323 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 923 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-291015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gurnee, IL
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location: 42.38, -87.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 290502 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1102 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2020

UPDATE. 922 PM CST

Evening Update .

Going forecast appears to be in good shape this evening, and no significant changes have been made.

Although weak radar returns associated with patchy drizzle and flurries have decreased in coverage over the past few hours, a few locations are still reporting flurries at times, particularly near Lake Michigan (MDW recently). Forecast soundings indicate low level winds will become a little more solidly northeast above the surface overnight after the passage of a weak surface trough earlier this evening, which will maintain the potential for some additional flurries. Relatively shallow boundary layer and light winds/weak convergence should prevent these flurries form being impactful in any way. Otherwise, rather uneventful late January weather conditions are anticipated, with cloudy skies and temperatures holding in the upper 20s to around 30 persisting through the overnight hours.

Going forecast has all of this handled well, and therefore no changes needed at this time.

Ratzer

SHORT TERM. 244 PM CST

Through Wednesday night .

Concerns are somewhat limited for the next few days, but some low chances for freezing drizzle or snow (more so flurries) do exist.

Radar returns have eased in the past few hours, and similarly cloud bases have come up. The morning sounding at KDVN depicted the top of the cloud layer right around -10C. We have had a few observations of flurries recently, with some snow showers across northwest Indiana. Aloft, a weak upper disturbance is mostly through the area and therefore the overall lift has decreased and weak ridging will shift in from the west tonight.

Concern will shift to possible lake effect flurries or snow showers overnight into Wednesday. With the aforementioned ridging moving in the overall forcing for precipitation tonight it not great. But as the low level flow turns around to the NE, we may get of lake enhancement to encourage some snow showers offshore due to some convergence over the center of the lake. In spite of weak surface winds from the NNW, 925-850 mb winds onshore could steer a few of these inland at any point later this evening and into early Wednesday. Most guidance suggest this would be flurries, but there could be a few showers that bring a dusting lakeside.

Outside of this, a broad upper trough across the plains will shift into the region tomorrow, with the better forcing south across the Ohio Valley. With this shifting into surface high pressure and shallow moisture, this would only suggest some light snow or flurries, possibly some drizzle/freezing drizzle also. This will clear the area to the east Wednesday night leaving weak high pressure in place, but we could see lows dip a tad further into the 20s with some cold advection behind this trough.

KMD

LONG TERM.

Thursday through Tuesday .

223 PM . A ridge of high pressure will being moving across the area Thursday morning and Thursday currently appears dry but will likely remain cloudy. The next weak wave will move across the area Thursday night into Friday morning with a small chance for light snow with flurries likely along with a chance of freezing drizzle. Precip will likely be light . similar to the past few days and confidence is low.

A second and tad stronger wave will move across the area later Friday into Friday night and this system has been fairly consistent on the models. This system may have a better chance of producing minor snow accumulations . under an inch . though some differences do remain between the models.

A brief warmup is expected Sunday into Monday with 40s possible. A few concerns for how warm temps become on Sunday are cloud cover and the deeper snow cover over northwest IL. With some sunshine . guidance highs seem on track and could be a few degrees too cool By Monday. it appears cloud cover will be increasing with precip possible by late afternoon. Gfs turns winds to the northeast as well. Thus confidence is lower for high temps Monday.

There remains quite a bit of uncertainty for Monday night through Tuesday night next week but the models have been consistent with a stronger cold front moving across the area and a shift to colder temps for the middle of next week. How that evolves could be quite complex Eventually. winds turn northerly with surface low pressure moving south of the area . as currently indicated. This would turn initial rain to snow from north to south with a wintry mix quite possible somewhere in between. Its too early for details but this time period will need to be watched closely as small changes to the track could lead to large changes to the forecast for our area. cms

AVIATION. For the 06Z TAFs .

Little change in the current conditions is expected through the TAF period. Winds will remain around 5 knots and VRB generally within the 350-050 direction through this evening before backing NW by Thursday morning. MVFR ceilings will also persist through the period.

Light winds should allow any light lake effect -SHSN that develops over southern Lake Michigan tonight to stay offshore or only briefly affect the immediate shoreline (GYY) toward daybreak. A mid-level trough currently approaching the Missouri River Valley will cross the region during the afternoon in a weakening state and possibly result in some isolated to scattered flurries.

Kluber

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 16 mi31 min W 4.1 G 6 29°F 1020.7 hPa (+0.4)
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 38 mi31 min NW 2.9 G 2.9 31°F 26°F
CNII2 40 mi16 min N 2.9 G 6 31°F 23°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL5 mi36 minN 010.00 miOvercast29°F19°F69%1021.6 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI15 mi98 minN 010.00 miOvercast30°F21°F69%1020.9 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi39 minENE 310.00 miOvercast31°F21°F67%1021.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUGN

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm3NW4NW4NW7NW3NW3N4N5NW3NW3NW5NW4N3N5NW3CalmCalmN4N4CalmN4CalmCalm
1 day agoW5CalmN5NW4NW3NW4NW6NW4NW6NW5NW4N54NW6NW4N5NW4CalmCalm--NW4NW3NW3NW3
2 days agoW53W5W75--35W7W76W6
G18
W7W86W8NW7NW6545W4W4W3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.