Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sergeant Bluff, IA
 | Sunrise 5:46 AM Sunset 9:08 PM Moonrise 1:28 AM Moonset 4:12 PM |
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sergeant Bluff, IA
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FXUS63 KFSD 211725 AFDFSD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1225 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- The heat will continue into Sunday. Central SD will see some relief by Sunday, the rest of the area by Sunday night into Monday. Afternoon/evening heat indices average 100-110 degrees while nighttime heat indices only fall to 70 to 80 degrees.
- Southerly winds will gust to 25 to 40 mph at times through Sunday. While fire weather concerns are fairly low, isolated locations have struggled to get rainfall the past 3-6 weeks so some locally dry locations may be susceptible.
- Sunday evening into Monday morning may see some strong to severe thunderstorms with potential for locally heavy rainfall.
- An active pattern looks to set up for much of next week. Still a lot of details to work out but the position of the upper level jet suggests the potential for multiple chances of showers/thunderstorms and heavy rainfall, especially for southern SD, northern NE and northern IA.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025
A very warm night in progress across the area with current temperatures still in the low to mid 80s as of 3 am this morning.
Have had spotty very high based ACCAS showers try to develop through the James River Valley overnight, though nothing has been sustainable with dry air and a strong cap in place across the area.
This activity is in association with a weak eave moving across the region, though any activity that may develop is expected to exit to the northeast by 12Z.
Otherwise, little change to the forecast with a very hot day in storm with upper level ridging continue to have influence over the region. 850 mb temperatures will be in the range of 26 to 32 degrees C for this afternoon, and this will translate to highs approximately ranging from 97 to 106 degrees across the area - with warmest readings from the Interstate 29 corridor an eastward. Combined with these hot temperatures, dew points are generally expected to be in the 60s to lower 70s - although lower west of the James River. These factors will yield afternoon heat indices of 100 to 110 across the area, and the going heat headlines remain appropriate. The only relief from the oppressive heat will be southeasterly winds gusting 25 to 35 mph in the afternoon. Not much relief for tonight with lows again mainly in the 70s to near 80. Although a couple hi-res models would indicate the possibility of spotty ACCAS again tonight west of Interstate 29, kept it dry for now with soundings continuing to show a strong capping inversion in place.
Sunday will be the transition day, and although still hot for most of the area, a surface low will track from south central SD to northeastern SD during the day - pulling a cold front into our far west by afternoon. This will knock temperatures back a bit, with highs in the lower to mid 90s west of the James River Valley. To the east, highs will again be in the upper 90s to lower 100s with heat indices of 100-110 across the area. It should remain dry through the day with a strong capping inversion remaining.
By Sunday evening, most hi-res guidance indicates isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing through the James River Valley in the vicinity of the front - this in response to slightly cooling mid levels and increasing lift provided by an upper level jet nudging into western and central SD. Out ahead of the front, it will be very unstable with MUCAPE running around 2500-3000 J/KG with effective shear of 30 to 40 kts in the vicinity of the front. This will be conducive for a few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds as the front pushes eastward on Sunday night.
Models are in fairly good agreement on unsettled weather continuing for much of next week with the aforementioned upper level jet only slowly shifting to the northeast and the frontal boundary meandering across the region through the week. Our area will remain in a southwesterly upper level flow through the period as a trough persists over the western CONUS, and the boundary may be the focus for showers and storms as a series of shortwaves traverse the southwesterly upper level flow. This could result in periodic severe weather chances along with heavy rain chances - focused on Tuesday night into Wednesday as outlined in the WPC ERO. This is supported by ECMWF and NAEFS ensembles indicating PWAT values in the 99th percentile with respect to climatology for late Monday into Wednesday. At this time, ensembles would suggest the higher rainfall totals through the week will reside over southern SD, northern NE and northern IA. Temperatures through the week look to be just either side of normal (highs mid 70s to lower 80s). It appears that rainfall chances will decrease toward the end of the week (Thursday/Friday) as the upper level jet shifts off into the Great Lakes/New England area and the upper level flow becomes more zonal.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025
VFR conditions will persist for the this TAF period. Taking a look at satellite imagery, mostly clear conditions continue this afternoon as southerly to southeasterly surface winds continue to increase with gusts between 25-40 mph expected at times.
Expect the clear conditions to persist for the duration of the TAF period as southerly surface winds gradually decrease into the overnight hours to end the TAF period.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Sunday for SDZ061-062- 065>071.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for SDZ038-050-052- 053-057>059-063-064.
Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for SDZ039-040-054>056-060.
MN...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ071-072-080- 081-089-090-097-098.
IA...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Sunday for IAZ001>003- 012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Sunday for NEZ013-014.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1225 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- The heat will continue into Sunday. Central SD will see some relief by Sunday, the rest of the area by Sunday night into Monday. Afternoon/evening heat indices average 100-110 degrees while nighttime heat indices only fall to 70 to 80 degrees.
- Southerly winds will gust to 25 to 40 mph at times through Sunday. While fire weather concerns are fairly low, isolated locations have struggled to get rainfall the past 3-6 weeks so some locally dry locations may be susceptible.
- Sunday evening into Monday morning may see some strong to severe thunderstorms with potential for locally heavy rainfall.
- An active pattern looks to set up for much of next week. Still a lot of details to work out but the position of the upper level jet suggests the potential for multiple chances of showers/thunderstorms and heavy rainfall, especially for southern SD, northern NE and northern IA.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025
A very warm night in progress across the area with current temperatures still in the low to mid 80s as of 3 am this morning.
Have had spotty very high based ACCAS showers try to develop through the James River Valley overnight, though nothing has been sustainable with dry air and a strong cap in place across the area.
This activity is in association with a weak eave moving across the region, though any activity that may develop is expected to exit to the northeast by 12Z.
Otherwise, little change to the forecast with a very hot day in storm with upper level ridging continue to have influence over the region. 850 mb temperatures will be in the range of 26 to 32 degrees C for this afternoon, and this will translate to highs approximately ranging from 97 to 106 degrees across the area - with warmest readings from the Interstate 29 corridor an eastward. Combined with these hot temperatures, dew points are generally expected to be in the 60s to lower 70s - although lower west of the James River. These factors will yield afternoon heat indices of 100 to 110 across the area, and the going heat headlines remain appropriate. The only relief from the oppressive heat will be southeasterly winds gusting 25 to 35 mph in the afternoon. Not much relief for tonight with lows again mainly in the 70s to near 80. Although a couple hi-res models would indicate the possibility of spotty ACCAS again tonight west of Interstate 29, kept it dry for now with soundings continuing to show a strong capping inversion in place.
Sunday will be the transition day, and although still hot for most of the area, a surface low will track from south central SD to northeastern SD during the day - pulling a cold front into our far west by afternoon. This will knock temperatures back a bit, with highs in the lower to mid 90s west of the James River Valley. To the east, highs will again be in the upper 90s to lower 100s with heat indices of 100-110 across the area. It should remain dry through the day with a strong capping inversion remaining.
By Sunday evening, most hi-res guidance indicates isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing through the James River Valley in the vicinity of the front - this in response to slightly cooling mid levels and increasing lift provided by an upper level jet nudging into western and central SD. Out ahead of the front, it will be very unstable with MUCAPE running around 2500-3000 J/KG with effective shear of 30 to 40 kts in the vicinity of the front. This will be conducive for a few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds as the front pushes eastward on Sunday night.
Models are in fairly good agreement on unsettled weather continuing for much of next week with the aforementioned upper level jet only slowly shifting to the northeast and the frontal boundary meandering across the region through the week. Our area will remain in a southwesterly upper level flow through the period as a trough persists over the western CONUS, and the boundary may be the focus for showers and storms as a series of shortwaves traverse the southwesterly upper level flow. This could result in periodic severe weather chances along with heavy rain chances - focused on Tuesday night into Wednesday as outlined in the WPC ERO. This is supported by ECMWF and NAEFS ensembles indicating PWAT values in the 99th percentile with respect to climatology for late Monday into Wednesday. At this time, ensembles would suggest the higher rainfall totals through the week will reside over southern SD, northern NE and northern IA. Temperatures through the week look to be just either side of normal (highs mid 70s to lower 80s). It appears that rainfall chances will decrease toward the end of the week (Thursday/Friday) as the upper level jet shifts off into the Great Lakes/New England area and the upper level flow becomes more zonal.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025
VFR conditions will persist for the this TAF period. Taking a look at satellite imagery, mostly clear conditions continue this afternoon as southerly to southeasterly surface winds continue to increase with gusts between 25-40 mph expected at times.
Expect the clear conditions to persist for the duration of the TAF period as southerly surface winds gradually decrease into the overnight hours to end the TAF period.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Sunday for SDZ061-062- 065>071.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for SDZ038-050-052- 053-057>059-063-064.
Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for SDZ039-040-054>056-060.
MN...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ071-072-080- 081-089-090-097-098.
IA...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Sunday for IAZ001>003- 012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Sunday for NEZ013-014.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KSUX
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KSUX
Wind History Graph: SUX
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of Upper Mississippi Valley
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