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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 623 Am Est Tue Dec 5 2023
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 623 Am Est Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. Weak high pressure builds in today, eventually dissipating as low pressure develops well south and east of the area on Wednesday. High pressure moves in Thursday and weakens Thursday night. This high pressure area moves offshore Friday into Friday night. High pressure offshore builds offshore Saturday. Offshore high pressure area moves farther away farther out into atlantic Saturday night.

FXUS61 KALY 051205 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 705 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

SYNOPSIS
Any lingering upslope and lake effect snow showers diminish early today with cloudy skies and seasonable temperatures the rest of the day. Clouds linger tonight with a few isolated snow showers possible tomorrow as an upper level disturbance passes overhead. Next chance for snow showers, mainly west of the Hudson River, returns on Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 6:55am...Forecast is track with just some lingering light flurries in Schoharie County and the northern Catskills which will diminish over the next few hours as subsidence increases.
Otherwise, rather mild temperatures in place to start our Tuesday with temperatures in the low to mid 30s and these temperatures will not feature much of diurnal swing thanks to weak cold air advection and cloudy skies.

Previous discussion...Weak sfc high pressure from the Ohio Valley builds into the Northeast today leading to sufficient subsidence that any early upslope and lake effect snow showers in the higher terrain will diminish. Ridging aloft is weak enough that westerly flow and a fetch of the lake is maintained.
Thus, any breaks of morning sun unfortunately will quickly fade behind clouds as we reach our convective temperature and forecast soundings show moisture remaining trapped underneath the subsidence inversion. Otherwise, very shallow boundary layer mixing, light northerly sfc winds supporting weak CAA, and cloudy skies will prevent much of a diurnal temperature change today. In fact, temperatures early this morning may only rise a few degrees (near or less than 5) through the day staying in the mid to upper 30s in the valley with upper 20s to low 30s in the hill towns and higher terrain.

Clouds stay put tonight as a trough approaches from the Ohio Valley which will provide mid-level moisture and enough forcing to maintain cloudy skies. High pressure over Ontario strengthens and maintains a light northerly sfc wind and weak CAA for much of the Northeast. Thus, despite the clouds, temperatures likely drop into the 20s for much of eastern NY and western New England.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
The upstream trough tracks over the region on Wednesday keeping clouds around through much of the morning and even potential for a few isolated snow showers, especially west of the Hudson, as the trough axis passes overhead. However, limited overall forcing and moisture should keep any snow accumulations to a minimal (under 0.5 inch) and only show slight chance POPs.

As the trough axis passes to our east Wednesday afternoon, dry air advection and stronger subsidence in its wake should allow clouds to finally break for some sun. Despite the increased sun, northerly winds will maintain CAA and temperatures will remain a few degrees under climatology with highs only reaching into the mid to upper 20s in the hill towns and high terrain with low to mid 30s in the valley.

Mostly clear skies should allow temperatures Wednesday night to turn quite cold. While a warm front will be on the approach, the ridge axis looks to remain just to our west through 12 UTC Thurs. This would support mostly clear skies and an opportunity for radiational cooling to result in temperatures dropping into the teens and low 20s for much of eastern NY and western New England. The ensemble spread for low temperatures shows 10th percentile values ranging from the upper single digits to mid teens while 90th percentile values range from the upper teens to mid 20s so this tells us there is good consensus among the guidance for temperatures to fall into the teens for much of the area.

After a chilly start to Thursday, expect increasing clouds as the warm front continues its eastward push. Overall moisture and forcing is once again lacking as an incoming shortwave shears out. However, CVA ahead of the shortwave could be strong enough west of the Hudson River that when combined with WAA, snow showers are maintained. Decent model consensus with this solution with guidance suggesting more organized snow showers during the day Thursday mainly in the western/southern Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, and northern/eastern Catskills which is where we have chance POPs. POPs trends downward to slight chance heading towards the Hudson with a dry forecast further east. Moisture is sufficient west of the Hudson to support some minor snow accumulations but amounts likely are under 1 inch (up to 2 inches in the southern Adirondacks). Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies likely through the day with temperatures remaining near normal as sfc winds back to the west and eventually south. Highs expected to reach into the mid to upper 30s in the valley with upper 20 to low 30s in the higher terrain and hill towns.

Ridging gradually builds towards the Northeast Thursday night as the sfc warm front slowly pushes through the region. A westerly flow fetch aloft and warm air advection will keep cloudy skies in place so temperatures will not be as cold compared to Wed night with lows only dropping into the mid to upper 20s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Upper ridging builds into our region Friday and Saturday with warm advection. Generally dry weather with periods of mid and high clouds.
Highs Friday in the 40s with upper 30s higher terrain. Highs Saturday in the upper 40s to lower 50s with mid 40s higher terrain.

High amplitude upper trough develops in the central U.S. and strengthens as the upper trough goes negative tilt as it tracks through the northeastern U.S. through the day Sunday. Strong upper dynamics and low level jet and thermal forcing will result in locally heavy rain Sunday, exiting Sunday night. Highs Sunday in the 50s with upper 40s higher terrain.

Cold advection spreads through the region Monday with some possible lake effect clouds and some scattered snow showers into the southern Adirondacks. Highs Monday in the 40s with 30s in the southern Adirondacks. Timing of the rain and the frontal passage still in question seen in the spread in guidance/ensembles.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Quite a bit of lake effect cloudiness across the region with VFR ceiling at KALB and MVFR ceiling at KPSF and KGFL. The cloud layer should slowly lift through the morning, so all TAF sites should have ceilings above 3000 feet by around 16Z. KPOU will just have intervals of scattered clouds above 3000 feet.

The VFR conditions are expected to continue through this afternoon and night. Visibilities are expected to remain VFR through the entire TAF period, too.

West to northwest winds at 10 Kt will become gusty at KPSF and KALB this afternoon. East to north winds at KGFL. Winds will trend to north and weaken to less than 10 Kt through this afternoon and less than 6 Kt this evening through the night.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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New Baltimore
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Tue -- 12:51 AM EST     Last Quarter
Tue -- 04:13 AM EST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:19 AM EST     4.02 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:47 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:22 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 04:32 PM EST     1.00 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:22 PM EST     4.30 feet High Tide
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New Baltimore, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Castleton-on-Hudson
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Tue -- 12:51 AM EST     Last Quarter
Tue -- 04:40 AM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:36 AM EST     3.92 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:47 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:22 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 04:59 PM EST     0.70 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:39 PM EST     4.20 feet High Tide
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Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

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