Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Eagle Point, OR

FXUS66 KMFR 082335 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 335 PM PST Mon Dec 8 2025

.Updated Aviation Discussion.

DISCUSSION
A strong upper ridge off the California coast this week will keep much of the moisture associated with a strong atmospheric river to our north. The frontal boundary associated with that moist plume will settle southward later tonight into Tuesday and this will bring increasing rain chances to NW sections of our forecast area and also the coast/coast ranges, but the impactful rainfall will largely stay to our north. In fact, many areas south of the Umpqua Divide and east of the Cascades won't see any rainfall from this system at all. As the front edges southward tonight through Tuesday evening, mid level winds will increase in NE portions of our area and this will bring occasionally gusty winds from the Cascades eastward in Oregon (primarily north of Highway 140). Limited vertical mixing could make it difficult for the winds to completely mix down to the surface, so the strongest winds will be over the higher terrain, but also possibly in some of the more typically channeled valleys (around Summer Lake). Please refer to our wind advisory for the details.

After the front briefly jogs southward, the upper ridge will re- strengthen at midweek and amplify as it heads into California and the West Coast late this week into the weekend. As such, moisture will shift well to our north and precip chances will diminish Wednesday to almost nil everywhere Thu-Sat. Overall, we're expecting yet another dry, mild period for this time of year, which isn't exactly a good thing since we're heading into (climatologically) our wettest time of the year and snowpack is pretty much non-existent. This pattern will probably bring more valley/basin low clouds/fog during the nights/mornings. Areas that remain clear will have cold mornings, but also milder afternoons.
It's not out of the question that some of the climate sites in NorCal (Montague, Mount Shasta, Alturas) and perhaps even Klamath Falls challenge a mid-December record high or two late this week.

Beyond that, models show the upper ridge axis pushing east of the Cascades Saturday night with a Pacific frontal system approaching the coast and moving inland Sunday. Most ensemble members weaken this front as it moves onshore, so it remains to be seen just how much, if any precipitation it will bring. Will this be the system that opens the storm door for our area? While the CPC 8-14 day forecast gives hope for a wetter period next week (odds are shown to be 50-60% for above normal precip), model clusters and ensembles still show plenty of drier solutions within the membership and a tendency for upper ridging near or just off the California coast. If that ridge remains strong enough, this could keep the storm track to our north. -Spilde
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