Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Selma, OR
November 28, 2023 3:31 PM PST (23:31 UTC)
Sunrise 7:18AM Sunset 4:44PM Moonrise 5:37PM Moonset 9:06AM
PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 223 Pm Pst Tue Nov 28 2023
Tonight..E wind 5 kt. Wind waves less than 2 ft. SWell W 5 ft at 12 seconds.
Wed..E wind 5 kt...backing to nw in the afternoon. Wind waves less than 2 ft. SWell W 5 ft at 11 seconds.
Wed night..N wind 5 kt...backing to sw after midnight, then... Backing to se early in the morning. Wind waves less than 2 ft. SWell W 4 to 5 ft at 14 seconds.
Thu..S wind 5 to 10 kt...veering to W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves less than 2 ft...becoming sw 2 ft at 2 seconds in the afternoon. SWell W 3 to 5 ft at 13 seconds. Rain and slight chance of tstms.
Thu night..NW wind 5 to 10 kt...backing to sw after midnight. Wind waves nw 3 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 7 to 8 ft at 12 seconds...building to 9 to 10 ft at 12 seconds after midnight. Rain.
Fri..Northern portion, S wind 20 to 25 kt. Brookings southward, S wind 10 to 20 kt...rising to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves nw 3 ft at 7 seconds. SWell W 10 to 12 ft at 12 seconds. Rain.
Fri night..SW wind 15 kt. Wind waves nw 5 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 9 to 10 ft at 12 seconds... Building to 11 to 12 ft at 12 seconds after midnight. Rain.
Sat..SW wind 15 kt...backing to s. Wind waves nw 4 ft at 6 seconds...shifting to the S 3 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 12 ft at 13 seconds.
Sun..S wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves S 4 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 12 ft at 14 seconds...subsiding to W 9 ft at 12 seconds and W 6 ft at 18 seconds.
Tonight..E wind 5 kt. Wind waves less than 2 ft. SWell W 5 ft at 12 seconds.
Wed..E wind 5 kt...backing to nw in the afternoon. Wind waves less than 2 ft. SWell W 5 ft at 11 seconds.
Wed night..N wind 5 kt...backing to sw after midnight, then... Backing to se early in the morning. Wind waves less than 2 ft. SWell W 4 to 5 ft at 14 seconds.
Thu..S wind 5 to 10 kt...veering to W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves less than 2 ft...becoming sw 2 ft at 2 seconds in the afternoon. SWell W 3 to 5 ft at 13 seconds. Rain and slight chance of tstms.
Thu night..NW wind 5 to 10 kt...backing to sw after midnight. Wind waves nw 3 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 7 to 8 ft at 12 seconds...building to 9 to 10 ft at 12 seconds after midnight. Rain.
Fri..Northern portion, S wind 20 to 25 kt. Brookings southward, S wind 10 to 20 kt...rising to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves nw 3 ft at 7 seconds. SWell W 10 to 12 ft at 12 seconds. Rain.
Fri night..SW wind 15 kt. Wind waves nw 5 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 9 to 10 ft at 12 seconds... Building to 11 to 12 ft at 12 seconds after midnight. Rain.
Sat..SW wind 15 kt...backing to s. Wind waves nw 4 ft at 6 seconds...shifting to the S 3 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 12 ft at 13 seconds.
Sun..S wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves S 4 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 12 ft at 14 seconds...subsiding to W 9 ft at 12 seconds and W 6 ft at 18 seconds.
PZZ300 223 Pm Pst Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Lower seas will persist in the waters through Wednesday. Active weather returns late Thursday through the weekend with periods of gusty south winds, a building northwest swell and fresh wind waves.
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Lower seas will persist in the waters through Wednesday. Active weather returns late Thursday through the weekend with periods of gusty south winds, a building northwest swell and fresh wind waves.
Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 282244 AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 244 PM PST Tue Nov 28 2023
DISCUSSION
Satellite image shows clear skies over most of the forecast area, with the exception of a few high level clouds on the northeast side of the upper low off the northern California coast.
The upper low will continue to move south along the California coast and weaken at the same time before pushing inland around the Bay area. We'll see varying amounts of high and mid level clouds this evening and tonight, but it wont be enough to prevent low clouds from developing once again in the Umpqua Basin and around Grants Pass late this evening.
Wednesday will be dry with low clouds and patchy freezing fog remaining a fixture in the Umpqua Basin and Grants pass area which could last through the morning hours before burning off in the afternoon. Elsewhere we can expect varying amounts of high and mid level clouds, especially in northern California.
Wednesday night, an upper trough and associated cold front will approach the outer waters late tonight. Inland areas will remain dry, but precipitation could reach the marine waters late Wednesday night. We'll see increasing high and lid level clouds Wednesday evening with the cloud cover becoming thicker as we go further into Wednesday night. Overnight lows west of the Cascades could actually occur later in the evening, then remain nearly steady or even rise a bit in the overnight hours.
Thursday, the front will reach the coast around daybreak, then moving inland during the day. Snow levels are expected to hover around 4000 feet, but they could briefly lower to around 3500 feet in heavier precipitation. Storm total snow Thursday will be between 2-4 inches, most centered around Crater Lake and Diamond Lake, and 1- 2 inches near Lake of the Woods. Keep in mind precip will be coming in during the day, so it's possible snow amounts noted could end up a little less due to melting on the roads.
The upper trough axis will move into the area Thursday evening, then east of the Cascades Thursday night. Precipitation at this time will become more showery, but a moist west to northwest flow will remain with snow showers persisting around 3000 feet and above along the Cascades resulting in a better opportunity for road snow around Crater Lake, Diamond Lake, Lake of the Woods, and north part of highway 97 north of Chiloquin. Storm totals Thursday night in these areas are expected to be between 2-4 inches at Crater Lake and Diamond Lake, and 1-3 inches near Lake of the Woods and an inch or two on highway 97 north of Chiloquin. -Petrucelli
LONG TERM
The extended forecast starts with the first significant winter weather event for our region this season. An upper level wave will come sliding down from the north west within a relatively cold airmass. Temperatures around 4500 feet will be well below freezing and snow levels will be pushing down to 3000 feet Thursday night and Friday morning. This wave by its self might result in moderate impacts as the snowfall rates are not that impressive. The Winter Storm Severity Index is only pointing at moderate impacts for this time period.
There should be a 'brief' lull mid day Friday before the next wave moves in quickly by Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. This one is a little more concerning for a few reasons as some warmer moist air begins to ride over a relatively cooler airmass. There is also a cold/stationary front situated west to east over the Pacific. This should also aid in some additional synoptic lift around our region. The NBM's latest forecast is a bit of a concern with snowfall rates potentially reaching 1" an hour for 12 to 18 hours over the Cascades. The pattern would fit that idea with westerly flow hitting the Cascades and the stationary boundary over the Pacific.
NBM probabilities also give some warning to a bigger winter storm event. The probability for 2 feet of snow over 48 hours ending Saturday evening is about 80% over the higher Oregon Cascades.
Therefore, combined with other pattern recognition, we decided to go through with a winter storm watch from 0Z Friday until 0z Sunday.
As we move into the forecast, a warm front and leading edge of the next atmospheric river appears to slam right into Oregon around Sunday. Temperatures will warm and snow levels will increase up to 8000 feet. This scenario has about an 80% chance of occuring.
However, some models show a cold front approaching our region late Sunday night, which could increase precipitation and keep snow levels relatively lower. This solution has a 20% happening.
Overall, impacts will likely decrease into Sunday as warmer air begins to move in.
Ensembles suggest integrated vapor transport(IVT) are fairly high and around 300 to 500 along the coast based on the latest GEFS data by Monday. However, the IVTs have a strong southerly to south westerly component. We've had an IVT event like this already this fall with minimal precipitation along the coast and farther inland.
In any case, the take home point here is warming temperatures should allow for decreasing snow impacts into next week.
-Smith
AVIATION
VFR conditions are expected to continue for most areas through the TAF period under continuing stable atmospheric conditions.
LIFR ceilings are still persisting around the Umpqua Valley this morning. Based on the latest satellite imagery around 1730Z, the clouds are not burning off, so these ceilings should last into the early afternoon. We're anticipating more LIFR ceilings and fog later tonight.
We also considered adding fog into the Rogue and Illinois valleys later tonight, however we kept things clear in those areas tonight.
Dew Points don't change much and they should max out in the upper 20's like the last few nights. If there is a little more moisture sneaking in today, then it's a 50/50 chance of fog forming later tonight around MFR.
-Smith
MARINE
Updated 200 PM Tuesday November 28, 2023...Seas will remain low, near the current readings of 4-5 feet at 11-13 seconds, through Wednesday night.
Thursday afternoon, active weather returns with multiple fronts expected to pass through the region from Thursday through the weekend, and continuing into early next week. Thursday evening a steep northwest swell between 11 and 12 feet will build into the waters. When a strong front moves through on Friday, gusty south winds will combine with the existing swell to increase the steepness and choaticness of the seas.
The northwest swell will rebuild and grow throughout the day on Saturday. The trend in the forecast swell heights have been trending up in height, which could make bar crossings increasingly more hazardous.
-Miles
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for ORZ023>026- 028>031.
Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon above 4000 feet for ORZ025-027>030.
CA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for CAZ080-081- 084-085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for PZZ356.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ370- 376.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 244 PM PST Tue Nov 28 2023
DISCUSSION
Satellite image shows clear skies over most of the forecast area, with the exception of a few high level clouds on the northeast side of the upper low off the northern California coast.
The upper low will continue to move south along the California coast and weaken at the same time before pushing inland around the Bay area. We'll see varying amounts of high and mid level clouds this evening and tonight, but it wont be enough to prevent low clouds from developing once again in the Umpqua Basin and around Grants Pass late this evening.
Wednesday will be dry with low clouds and patchy freezing fog remaining a fixture in the Umpqua Basin and Grants pass area which could last through the morning hours before burning off in the afternoon. Elsewhere we can expect varying amounts of high and mid level clouds, especially in northern California.
Wednesday night, an upper trough and associated cold front will approach the outer waters late tonight. Inland areas will remain dry, but precipitation could reach the marine waters late Wednesday night. We'll see increasing high and lid level clouds Wednesday evening with the cloud cover becoming thicker as we go further into Wednesday night. Overnight lows west of the Cascades could actually occur later in the evening, then remain nearly steady or even rise a bit in the overnight hours.
Thursday, the front will reach the coast around daybreak, then moving inland during the day. Snow levels are expected to hover around 4000 feet, but they could briefly lower to around 3500 feet in heavier precipitation. Storm total snow Thursday will be between 2-4 inches, most centered around Crater Lake and Diamond Lake, and 1- 2 inches near Lake of the Woods. Keep in mind precip will be coming in during the day, so it's possible snow amounts noted could end up a little less due to melting on the roads.
The upper trough axis will move into the area Thursday evening, then east of the Cascades Thursday night. Precipitation at this time will become more showery, but a moist west to northwest flow will remain with snow showers persisting around 3000 feet and above along the Cascades resulting in a better opportunity for road snow around Crater Lake, Diamond Lake, Lake of the Woods, and north part of highway 97 north of Chiloquin. Storm totals Thursday night in these areas are expected to be between 2-4 inches at Crater Lake and Diamond Lake, and 1-3 inches near Lake of the Woods and an inch or two on highway 97 north of Chiloquin. -Petrucelli
LONG TERM
The extended forecast starts with the first significant winter weather event for our region this season. An upper level wave will come sliding down from the north west within a relatively cold airmass. Temperatures around 4500 feet will be well below freezing and snow levels will be pushing down to 3000 feet Thursday night and Friday morning. This wave by its self might result in moderate impacts as the snowfall rates are not that impressive. The Winter Storm Severity Index is only pointing at moderate impacts for this time period.
There should be a 'brief' lull mid day Friday before the next wave moves in quickly by Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. This one is a little more concerning for a few reasons as some warmer moist air begins to ride over a relatively cooler airmass. There is also a cold/stationary front situated west to east over the Pacific. This should also aid in some additional synoptic lift around our region. The NBM's latest forecast is a bit of a concern with snowfall rates potentially reaching 1" an hour for 12 to 18 hours over the Cascades. The pattern would fit that idea with westerly flow hitting the Cascades and the stationary boundary over the Pacific.
NBM probabilities also give some warning to a bigger winter storm event. The probability for 2 feet of snow over 48 hours ending Saturday evening is about 80% over the higher Oregon Cascades.
Therefore, combined with other pattern recognition, we decided to go through with a winter storm watch from 0Z Friday until 0z Sunday.
As we move into the forecast, a warm front and leading edge of the next atmospheric river appears to slam right into Oregon around Sunday. Temperatures will warm and snow levels will increase up to 8000 feet. This scenario has about an 80% chance of occuring.
However, some models show a cold front approaching our region late Sunday night, which could increase precipitation and keep snow levels relatively lower. This solution has a 20% happening.
Overall, impacts will likely decrease into Sunday as warmer air begins to move in.
Ensembles suggest integrated vapor transport(IVT) are fairly high and around 300 to 500 along the coast based on the latest GEFS data by Monday. However, the IVTs have a strong southerly to south westerly component. We've had an IVT event like this already this fall with minimal precipitation along the coast and farther inland.
In any case, the take home point here is warming temperatures should allow for decreasing snow impacts into next week.
-Smith
AVIATION
VFR conditions are expected to continue for most areas through the TAF period under continuing stable atmospheric conditions.
LIFR ceilings are still persisting around the Umpqua Valley this morning. Based on the latest satellite imagery around 1730Z, the clouds are not burning off, so these ceilings should last into the early afternoon. We're anticipating more LIFR ceilings and fog later tonight.
We also considered adding fog into the Rogue and Illinois valleys later tonight, however we kept things clear in those areas tonight.
Dew Points don't change much and they should max out in the upper 20's like the last few nights. If there is a little more moisture sneaking in today, then it's a 50/50 chance of fog forming later tonight around MFR.
-Smith
MARINE
Updated 200 PM Tuesday November 28, 2023...Seas will remain low, near the current readings of 4-5 feet at 11-13 seconds, through Wednesday night.
Thursday afternoon, active weather returns with multiple fronts expected to pass through the region from Thursday through the weekend, and continuing into early next week. Thursday evening a steep northwest swell between 11 and 12 feet will build into the waters. When a strong front moves through on Friday, gusty south winds will combine with the existing swell to increase the steepness and choaticness of the seas.
The northwest swell will rebuild and grow throughout the day on Saturday. The trend in the forecast swell heights have been trending up in height, which could make bar crossings increasingly more hazardous.
-Miles
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for ORZ023>026- 028>031.
Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon above 4000 feet for ORZ025-027>030.
CA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for CAZ080-081- 084-085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for PZZ356.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ370- 376.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR | 36 mi | 43 min | 0G | 65°F | 52°F | 30.07 | ||
| 46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA | 46 mi | 31 min | N 3.9G | 55°F | 53°F | 30.06 | ||
| CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA | 48 mi | 49 min | W 6G | 61°F | 53°F | 30.04 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Wind History from BOK
(wind in knots)Wedderburn
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:41 AM PST 5.79 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:39 AM PST 3.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:24 AM PST Sunrise
Tue -- 09:07 AM PST Moonset
Tue -- 11:23 AM PST 7.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:46 PM PST Sunset
Tue -- 05:38 PM PST Moonrise
Tue -- 06:44 PM PST -1.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:41 AM PST 5.79 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:39 AM PST 3.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:24 AM PST Sunrise
Tue -- 09:07 AM PST Moonset
Tue -- 11:23 AM PST 7.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:46 PM PST Sunset
Tue -- 05:38 PM PST Moonrise
Tue -- 06:44 PM PST -1.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Wedderburn, Rogue River, Oregon, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 5.6 |
| 1 am |
| 5.8 |
| 2 am |
| 5.3 |
| 3 am |
| 4.6 |
| 4 am |
| 3.8 |
| 5 am |
| 3.2 |
| 6 am |
| 3.2 |
| 7 am |
| 3.7 |
| 8 am |
| 4.6 |
| 9 am |
| 5.8 |
| 10 am |
| 6.9 |
| 11 am |
| 7.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 7.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 6.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 5.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 0 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.9 |
| 7 pm |
| -1.1 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 3.9 |
Brookings
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:33 AM PST 6.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:27 AM PST 3.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:22 AM PST Sunrise
Tue -- 09:05 AM PST Moonset
Tue -- 11:15 AM PST 7.98 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:47 PM PST Sunset
Tue -- 05:39 PM PST Moonrise
Tue -- 06:32 PM PST -1.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:33 AM PST 6.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:27 AM PST 3.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:22 AM PST Sunrise
Tue -- 09:05 AM PST Moonset
Tue -- 11:15 AM PST 7.98 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:47 PM PST Sunset
Tue -- 05:39 PM PST Moonrise
Tue -- 06:32 PM PST -1.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 6 |
| 1 am |
| 6 |
| 2 am |
| 5.5 |
| 3 am |
| 4.7 |
| 4 am |
| 3.9 |
| 5 am |
| 3.5 |
| 6 am |
| 3.5 |
| 7 am |
| 4.1 |
| 8 am |
| 5.2 |
| 9 am |
| 6.4 |
| 10 am |
| 7.4 |
| 11 am |
| 8 |
| 12 pm |
| 7.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 6.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 5.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 6 pm |
| -1.1 |
| 7 pm |
| -1.1 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 4.3 |
Medford, OR,
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