Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Selma, OR

FXUS66 KMFR 171235 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 535 AM PDT Fri Apr 17 2026

KEY MESSAGES

- Chilly this morning with freezing temperatures for most inland areas. But, today will start a warming trend into early next week with weekend highs that will be near to a few degrees above normal at the coast, and several degrees above normal inland.

- Gusty, breezy southerly winds (sustained at 10 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph, except locally gusting to 45 mph at Weed on Sunday) for the Shasta Valley and east of the Cascades Sunday through Wednesday.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will accompany a slow-moving low pressure system. Light showers develop at the coast as early as Saturday night, but precipitation chances gradually increase early next week. A slight chance of west side thunderstorms as early as Monday afternoon. A wider spread in model solutions of the low position and strength for Tuesday and Wednesday, but still with a higher probability of isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon and the highest probability of rain from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning.

- Higher uncertainty beyond Wednesday, but with the potential for a shortwave on the back side of the mid-week trough to develop into a closed low near our area on Day 6/Thursday. This would continue shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday, then either lingering into Friday or shifting south of our area by Friday.


DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A Freeze Warning is in effect through 9 AM PDT for the valleys of eastern Curry, Josephine, Jackson, and western Siskiyou County. Also, a Frost Advisory for Coos and Douglas County valleys. The cooling overnight has been aided by clear to mostly clear skies. A gradual increase of high clouds is expected today, while patchy valley low clouds in portions of Coos and Douglas counties dissipate after sunrise. High pressure will strengthen over our area today into Saturday, then continue to build as it shifts toward the Great Basin and Rockies on Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Both southerly flow and moisture aloft will strengthen Saturday night into Sunday with thicker high clouds expected. The main effect of the approaching upper level closed low will be an increase in south to southwest winds for the Shasta Valley and the east side. The strongest winds (gusts up to 45 mph) are expected in the southern Shasta Valley near Weed during Sunday afternoon, secondarily in Lake County near Summer Lake and Silver Lake on Monday and Tuesday (gusts up to 35 mph).

KEY MESSAGE 3...The downslope flow on Sunday (and possibly through Tuesday) will very likely keep the Shasta and Rogue valleys dry, but a few sprinkles can't be completely ruled out from the coast to the Cascades. Even at the coast, a relatively dry lower atmosphere should keep things mainly dry into Sunday evening. The probability of showers will trend higher later Sunday night into Wednesday, with ensemble data showing a wider spread in solutions but also higher average precipitation amounts Tuesday night into Wednesday. The probability of thunderstorms will be highest during Monday and Tuesday in the late afternoons, but it is too soon to tell what portions of our area will be favored for activity.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Compared to conditions Sunday through Tuesday...on the back side of the low, during Wednesday into Thursday, the scenario flips with a saturated lower portion of the airmass in a noticeably cooler west to northwest flow for a higher probability of more uniformly light showers. This new low is likely to track southward with a gradually diminishing probability of showers and gradually warming temperatures late next week.
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