Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Selma, OR

FXUS66 KMFR 082347 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 447 PM PDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Aviation Discussion updated

SYNOPSIS

Cool showery weather continues through tonight into Tuesday.
Temperatures gradually trend warmer through the week. A heat wave will impact the region around the weekend into early next week.
Heat risk will become high in some valleys Sunday night as overnight temperatures remain relatively warm.


DISCUSSION

There are plenty of showers on radar this afternoon with rain falling over most of the forecast area under warm air advection.
Coastal locations are reporting 0.5 inches of rain with lower totals <0.1 inches around the westside valleys and even lower totals east of the Cascades. We'll see a cold front eventually hit the coast later tonight and bring one last shot of rain mainly to coastal locations.

With the relatively cooler air moving in, we'll see the showers persist along the coast during Tuesday. Thermodynamic profiles haven't changed with very little convective available potential energy(CAPE) around the boundary layer. This hints at just plain old showers with no electrification of the cloud. The air aloft is relatively stable and drier above 9000 feet, so these showers will be fairly shallow and likely lighter with little or no rain falling.

Conditions begin to dry out by Tuesday night with some relatively cooler air already in place. There is a threat of frost over populated areas east of the Cascades early Wednesday morning as skies will begin to clear out with the trough moving east.
Therefore, we put some frost in the weather wording for locations east of the Cascades Wednesday morning.

Conditions trend warmer heading into Wednesday as high pressure continues to build across the region and highs move about 4 to 5 degrees warmer and meet climatological normals for this time of year. No weather concerns on Wednesday with deeper northerly flow and a short wave flying through eastern Oregon. This departing shortwave will build a healthy north east to south west pressure gradient across the state of Oregon

By Thursday morning, a thermal trough begins to set up over south western Oregon and north western California. One can see this in the inverted 850mb heights and 1000-500 mb thickness values in the GFS. Temperatures will further increase as a result with some broader northeast to east flow across the region. Net result of these winds should be temperatures moving warmer. The 500 mb ridge is still situated west, although temperatures will move warmer without much change in the 500 mb heights.

From Friday into the weekend, heat risk will gradually increase as temperatures continue to trend warmer. Heat peaks on Sunday as the ridge axis likely settles over our area with 592dm heights.
Right now, we're forecasting a high temperature of 105 in Medford on Sunday with a low of 65 Sunday night. The extreme forecast index(EFI) is hinting at an unusually strong heat event with max temps and min temps right around 0.8 to 0.85, which is fairly strong for early June, yet not extreme. Confidence is pretty high with the placement of this ridge based as well, so this heat is definitely on the way for southwest Oregon and northern California. Finally, it looks like this ridge flattens out around Wednesday of next week(16th-17th) based on analysis of the GEFS 500 mb heights. Therefore, this heat wave should be of the shorter variety.

-Smith
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