Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Selma, OR

FXUS66 KMFR 221152 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 452 AM PDT Thu May 22 2025

.Updated Aviation Discusssion

DISCUSSION
An upper trough is moving into the area this morning and will move east of the forecast area this afternoon. Radar image shows isolated showers in northern Lake and Klamath County and along the coast and just offshore. Isolated showers are expected in these areas this morning, then it will be dry in the afternoon as the upper trough moves east.

Another weak upper trough will move into the area later Thursday night into Friday morning, but this isn't expected to have much, if any affect on the weather. Some of the guidance suggest convective showers could break out east of the Cascades Friday afternoon.
Instability is marginal, and some of the guidance suggest it could be unstable enough for an isolated thunderstorm or two in eastern Lake County Friday afternoon.

There's good agreement with upper ridging remaining a play maker for the first half of the weekend with continued dry and warmer weather for the interior.

The operational models have come into better agreement with the general consensus showing the upper ridge remaining in place into the weekend. The upper trough will slowly move east towards the coast late Sunday afternoon and could trigger a few showers along thew coast and an isolated thunderstorm or two in the northern Cascades. However, this could end up being the exception and not the rule with the expectation that it will remain dry, with warmer afternoon temperatures for the interior this weekend. Afternoon highs are expected to be in the lower 80s for the interior westside valleys and upper 70s east of the Cascades Saturday, with further warming Sunday with low to mid 80s for the interior westside valleys and upper 70s to low 80s east of the Cascades.

The upper trough does move into the area the area Memorial Day, but it will weaken at the same tine which makes sense since it will be running into the upper ridging. The weakening of the trough will result in continued dry and warm weather for most locations for Memorial Day.

After Memorial Day and probably for most of next week. Evidence is pointing towards dry and warm weather and some guidance suggest a stronger upper ridge nudging towards the Pac NW late next week into the following weekend resulting in afternoon temperatures heating up for the interior. Stay tuned. -Petrucelli
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