Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Selma, OR

FXUS66 KMFR 102052 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 152 PM PDT Fri Apr 10 2026

DISCUSSION

Thunderstorms remain the main concern within the forecast today with a 5 to 15 percent risk of severe 60 mph winds and hail around 3/4" mainly around Douglas County. The cut off low in the Pacific will become negatively tilted and bring a little extra dynamics to the atmosphere today. However, potential instability is still a question, especially here in southern Oregon given all the cloud cover this morning and early afternoon. Conditions are notably clearer farther to the north and the RBG BUFR forecast soundings looks pretty good for some thunderstorms, although they're also low side of convective available potential energy.

This upper level low will eventually become ingested in the upper level flow and shift eastwards later tonight into Saturday morning ahead of the next trough in the Pacific. The chance of showers will persist through tonight into Saturday, although the next batch of heavy showers and thunderstorms will hit the area Saturday afternoon as this subsequent low approaches the coast.

Snow levels will lower to 5000 as this cooler air settles in Saturday night. With most of the heavy precipitation focused on Siskiyou County, we decided to go with a winter weather advisory above 5000 feet Saturday night. The 50th percentile NBM snow accumulation was showing 8 to 12 inches over that higher terrain and we thought it could impact the Scott Mountain Summit over California Highway 3. Once the low is over California on Sunday, impacts will diminish as the shower intensity will decrease and there should be some breaks in the cloud cover to help the sun really heat up surfaces.

The relatively cooler and unstable air in this low's wake will keep the atmosphere unstable. Scattered showers will likely continue into Monday with a 40 to 60 percent chance of rain.
High temperatures will cooler than normal and in the upper 50's for many valley locations. However, the cloud cover will keep temperatures in the upper 30's and lower 40's overnight, so we're not anticipating any frost or freeze products.

Otherwise, the extended forecast isn't looking too eventful.
Models are showing a deep trough and well defined cold front pushing down from the north around Wednesday. This should result in more snow in the mountains and cooler and wetter than normal conditions Wednesday and Thursday.
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