Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cairo, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Update as of 118 pm EDT
Some isolated to scattered light rain showers have slowly moved south and west of the Capital Region associated with upper low over the OH Valley. A few hundredths have been noted in the NYS Mesonet up to the Helderbergs and northern Catskills with a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch or so near I-84. A few rumbles of thunder may be near KPOU and I-84. We removed the PoPs north and east of the Tri Cities with low- level dry air with the east /southeast flow off the western New England higher terrain due to the strong onshore flow due to the offshore/downstream ridge. It will continue to be mostly cloudy/cloudy. Some sunshine has filtered through from Albany north up the upper Hudson River Valley into the Lake George Region. Temps have reached their highs so we increased to lower to mid 70s there. Highs elsewhere will be in the 60s to around 70F with some upper 50s over the eastern Catskills.

.PREV DISCUSSION[0356]...
Tonight...The upper low is forecast to become a more progressive open wave through tonight as it tracks north/east into the mid Atlantic region and lower Great Lakes. So while the trough will be weakening, there should be enough forcing along with anomalous moisture still in place (PWAT anomalies of +1 to +2 STDEV) to produce mainly scattered showers. The shower activity should tend to decrease overnight. Rainfall through tonight looks to range from around 0.10" to 0.30 with as much as 0.75" in the E. Catskills due to upslope flow. This amount of rainfall will not result in any significant hydrologic responses. Low temperatures will be mild again with mainly mid to upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Key Message:

- Strong thunderstorms possible on Friday.

Discussion:

Weakening upper level trough axis tracks northeast across our area on Thu. With some breaks of sunshine expected during the afternoon and slightly higher dewpoints in the upper 50s/lower 60s, some modest instability is forecast to develop with around 500-1000 J/Kg of SBCAPE from the HRRR. NBM probabilities for CAPE > 1000 J/Kg are < 20% across much of the area. With 0-6 km shear only 15 kt or less, organized/severe storms are not anticipated. Some storms may produce brief downpours though with PWAT anomalies of +1 to +2 STDEV. Overall max coverage of showers should be scattered, with isolated T- storms. With some breaks of sun, high temperatures expected to reach the lower/mid 70s in most valley locations. Once diurnal heating is lost, any showers should dissipate quickly after dark Thu night with dry conditions the rest of the night. Lows will be mild again mainly in the 55-60F range.

Fairly low confidence forecast shaping up for Fri, as most guidance showing a cluster of convection moving into central NY north of an eastward advancing warm front. If this activity holds together, it would move through eastern NY/western New England during the late morning to mid afternoon hours.
Instability may be somewhat limited based on the timing especially for areas west of the Hudson Valley. Farther east there may be enough time to sufficiently destabilize the environment as temperatures rise to near 80F for moderate CAPE of 1000-1500 J/Kg. This is conditional though. 0-6 km shear forecast to increase to around 25-35 kt later in the afternoon so storms may become organized with a sufficient buoyancy/shear balance for some possible stronger storms. At this time the Storm Prediction Center has a general thunderstorm outlook, but will monitor trends in subsequent forecasts.

Showers and storms should wane Fri evening, as they shift east of our region. We may get a break overnight, although upstream activity associated with the frontal system approaching may start to get close by Sat morning. Lows will be mild again around 55-60F.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Key Message:

- Thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and early evening (15-30%)
chances.

Discussion:

One more day of warm temperatures Saturday with highs in the 70s and 80s. Thunderstorms have chances (15 to 30 percent) of developing during the afternoon and early evening hours Saturday. Taking a deeper dive into the environment, latest forecast model guidances continue to support for enough energy to fuel storm development. With clear skies, this allows daytime heating to occur. Latest National Blend of Models (NBM)
probabilities for thunder are between 30 and 40 percent. With this information, confidence continues to increase to keep mention for thunderstorm chances for the afternoon hours Saturday. There is still uncertainty this far ahead on exact timing, strength, and location of thunderstorms. A cold front associated with a surface low pressure system is forecasted to move through Saturday afternoon and early evening across eastern New York and western New England. This helps bring cooler temperatures for Saturday night into Sunday morning ranging in the 40s and 50s.

The surface low pressure system heads east beginning Sunday night into Monday with low chances (less than 30%) for lingering rain showers north of the I-90 corridor through Monday afternoon.
Otherwise, a short period of dry conditions returns through Tuesday night. Chances (20-40%) for rain shower activity with another surface low pressure system returns for the middle of next week. High temperatures Sunday through Tuesday range in the 60s and 70s, with higher terrain locations in the 50s. Low temperatures range in the 40s and 50s.

AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions across airfields throughout the TAF period as low level clouds continue to move south to north through this afternoon. Periods of IFR conditions could occur due to light rain showers with low visibility and lower cloud ceilings this afternoon for KPOU and KPSF, which is included in TEMPO/PROB30 groups based on confidence at this forecast period. Mist and fog could develop after the 15/00z timeframe for KPOU and after 06z for KALB and KPSF which is included in the prevailing group. Otherwise, chances for light rain showers are included in PROB30 groups as probabilities are less than 30 percent and confidence is still low on timing of these showers. Winds continue to be light and variable with the exception of KALB where southeast winds between 5 and 10 knots continue through this morning. For this afternoon, southeast to southerly winds increase again to between 5 and 10 knots.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact
Definite SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.