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FXUS61 KBGM 051439 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 939 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

SYNOPSIS
Lake effect snow showers are expected this morning, which will result in light accumulations over portions of Central New York.
A weak disturbance will bring additional light snow tonight into Wednesday. Temperatures will trend colder through Thursday, before temperatures return to above normal Friday through the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
935 AM update...
Overall no change to the previous forecast. Watervapor imagery is showing a healthy shortwave moving through Ohio with a smaller wave digging down through southern Illinois. It looks like this could help maintain or amplify the shortwave as it moves through tonight so trends will be watched to see if the system will overperform.

635 AM Update:

The forecast remains on track. Still some light lake effect snow showers/flurries around, mainly across the Finger Lakes Region.
No changes were needed with this update.

305 AM Update:

With a continued west-northwest flow and 850mb temperatures around -8C, a weak lake response is allowing for light lake effect snow showers and flurries this morning, mainly across Central NY. This will continue through the remainder of the morning, and possibly into the afternoon, especially across the Finger Lakes Region. Additional snow amounts will be light; mainly less than an inch, with perhaps up to one inch across the upslope areas of the Finger Lakes Region. While the rest of the area will be mainly dry, lake effect clouds will remain for the majority of the area. Partial sunshine is possible for parts of Northeast PA this morning, before clouds increase again ahead of an approaching shortwave. After a mild last several days, today's temperatures will actually be slightly below normal, with highs mainly in the mid to upper 30s.

A shortwave will pass through the region tonight, with some light snow possible, especially for areas west of I-81. Moisture will be lacking, especially east of I-81, so snow accumulations are expected to be light (mainly less than a half inch, with perhaps up to one inch across the upslope areas of the Finger Lakes Region). Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies are expected with lows in the 20s.

Behind the passing shortwave, some lingering lake enhanced snow showers will be possible on Wednesday, especially across the Finger Lakes Region, but an overall drying trend will occur with high pressure beginning to move into the area. Otherwise, partial clearing is expected, although lake effect clouds may linger across parts of Central NY. Temperatures are again expected to be a bit below normal for this time of the year, with highs in the lower to mid 30s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
340 AM Update...

Leftover lake effect snow showers continue into Wednesday evening with little accumulation. A shortwave will move through late Wednesday night into Thursday. In addition a warm front will go through Thursday night. Ahead of the warm front on Thursday will be steady light snow. The snow could mix with rain in the afternoon as surface temperatures rise into the upper 30s in the warmer valleys. Snow accumulations will be mostly in the morning and mostly in CNY. Totals may get to around an inch along and north of the NYS thruway. Snow will end Thursday evening from west to east as the warm front passes.

Friday into Saturday ridging aloft and southwest low level flow will bring warmer air into the area. This period will be dry with forcing and moisture over the upper Great Lakes. High temperatures Friday will be in the 40s. Lows rise to be mostly in the 30s Friday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
340 AM Update...

Saturday and Saturday evening remain dry with even warmer temperatures. Highs Saturday in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

The next big system will move slowly east into the area Sunday with rain. An inch of rain is possible Sunday and Sunday night.
Winds will increase to 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph Sunday to Monday. The trend has been to slow the system down.
The GFS is the fastest and the Euro the slowest. Either way all models are showing a strong front with good advection of moisture from the south ahead of it on strong winds. Sunday high temperatures in the 50s.

Rain will taper off to showers late Sunday night but continue Monday under the upper level trough. Temperatures fall into the 30s Monday changing the rain to a mix then to just snow late in the day. Sunday to Monday used NBM for temperatures, winds and pops.

AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Ceiling restrictions will be fluctuating between MVFR and Fuel Alternate throughout most of the next 24 hours (at least through 12Z Wednesday) due to lake effect clouds. Occasional windows of VFR ceilings will be possible at KAVP and possibly some of the Central NY terminals early this evening. Later on this evening through the overnight hours, a weak system will bring some light snow to the Central NY terminals, possibly except for KRME. This will bring a return to MVFR to Fuel Alternate ceilings and also visbys. In any brief burst of steadier snow, brief IFR visbys will be possible as well.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Occasional ceiling restrictions possible with scattered snow showers, mainly at the Central NY terminals.

Wednesday night...Mainly VFR,

Thursday...A weak clipper system may bring occasional restrictions in light rain or snow.

Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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