Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dryden, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Warming up quite nicely under sunny skies with temperatures in the 60s and low 70s. Will bump up forecast highs by a couple of degrees, especially across inland areas, for highs in the mid to upper 70s. A sea breeze is developing and is becoming apparent on KDIX radar, so onshore flow will keep temperatures cooler along the shores. Winds will take on a southwest flow at 5 to 10 mph, except south to southeast behind the sea breeze.

Surface high pressure over central Pennsylvania and into West Virginia, generally west of the Appalachian Mountains, continues to build east and will be off the Mid-Atlantic coast late this afternoon. Going through tonight, the axis of the mid level ridge should crest over our area. This will continue to take the center of high pressure more to our south. This will further support a south to southwesterly low-level wind. Given the weak flow and decoupling at the surface, winds are expected to quickly go light and variable to even calm through the evening.
It is possible that some high level cloudiness is able to crest this ridge axis by later tonight, however a mainly clear sky is forecast. Temperatures drop back into the mid and upper 40s (low 50s in some of the urban centers).

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Diffuse warm front will push northeastward across the region on Tuesday in advance of an approaching cold front from the northwest.
We'll already be above normal today, but this should push readings for Tuesday 10-15 in the plus side, with many inland areas near or above 80. Exception will be the Poconos, where 70s prevail, and especially the shore, where a sea breeze likely keeps it in the chilly 60s.

Showers and storms with approaching cold front are likely dying out as they move into the region during the night Tuesday. Have high chance POPs for furthest reaches of the Poconos, ramping down quickly to below slight chance along I-95. Latest outlook at time of writing places Poconos in a marginal risk for severe weather from any dying stronger storms which make it in, perhaps helped along by higher DCAPE since low levels will be a little dry. Lows will be in the 50s Poconos and shore, but the mild 60s elsewhere thanks to southerly flow and clouds just ahead of the front.

Front slides south across the region during the morning and midday Wednesday. The progress looks a little slower, so temps will be noticeably cooler in the Poconos (60s) but only slightly cooler across I-95 (near 80), and Delmarva/far S NJ actually looks a bit warmer, helped along by an offshore flow behind the front before cold advection really gets going. Risk of convection across our southern zones with the front looks minimal, so just have some slight chance POPS in central Delmarva.

High pressure is more prominent in the forecast for Wednesday night, with enough clearing, drier air and radiational cooling to make it noticeably cooler than Tuesday night across the board. Lows mostly 50s, 40s in the outlying areas of NJ and PA and close to 40 in the coolest parts of the Poconos.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure will begin retreating eastward again for Thursday, with increasing clouds and perhaps a stray shower later in the day across western areas as another warm front approaches. Highs mostly 70s, 60s shore and Poconos.

Better chance of showers Thursday night and Friday as the warm front lifts through on the southeast side of low pressure passing to our northwest. This will hold lows up Thursday night, generally about 10 degrees milder than Wednesday night, with 50s and 60s common. Should break into the warm sector for Friday, with most areas outside the Poconos and shore reaching the 80s again...70s Poconos and shore.

Showers and t-storms likely impact the area later Friday into Friday night as the aforementioned cold front pushes across the region.
Still lots of uncertainty about intensity, but we'll be watching any severe weather risk closely.

Latest guidance generally has the front clear our region by early Saturday, with a significantly cooler couple of days for next weekend. Highs will mostly be near 70 both days with 60s Poconos.
Will need to watch potential for lingering clouds or even a shower wrapping in behind the front with the upper low for Saturday, but Sunday is more likely to be relatively dry and sunny. Lows Saturday night will be on the cool side again, with 40s common, 30s in the Poconos.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. SW 5 to 10 kt. Sea/bay breezes are expected to affect KACY, KMIV and KILG this afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Winds becoming light and variable to locally calm.
High confidence.

Outlook...

VFR conditions should prevail Tuesday. Slight chance of showers Tuesday night with passing cold front may result in brief reductions, but unlikely. VFR should then prevail again Wednesday and Wednesday night. Slight chance of showers returns Thursday with reductions possible, but these are more likely Friday into Friday night when showers may be accompanied by thunder.

MARINE
The conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through tonight. Winds will be shifting to more southerly today and with a sea and bay breeze developing, some increase in the winds should occur for a time this afternoon especially nearshore.

Outlook...

Increasing south-southwesterly flow as a warm front moves north of the region Tuesday likely brings SCA conditions to the ocean, with winds gusting 25-30 kts for the NJ-adjacent ocean waters by afternoon and seas building up to 6 feet. Further south, these likely wait til the evening across the waters closer to the Delaware coast. Not expecting SCA gusts on the bay, so no headline present or expected there just yet.

Conditions likely subside below SCA levels during the morning Wednesday as a cold front slips south of the area. Sub-SCA conditions should then prevail through Thursday before returning to SCA on southerly flow ahead of the next cold front on Friday. This front could also be accompanied by showers and thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER
For today, the conditions will be very dry with minimum relative humidity in the 20-30 percent range. However, the winds will be much lighter (10 mph or less). Sea breezes near coastal areas with wind speeds around 10 mph should result in some recovery in the relative humidity. Given the much lighter winds that are forecast, the risk for rapid fire spread is much less today.

For Tuesday, dew points will be higher, mostly 40s to low 50s, but the increased warmth will hold RH's down, with many locales likely dropping back to near 30 percent away from the marine influence.
Winds will also be stronger, with gust of 20-25 mph likely in the afternoon. Thus, there may yet again be a need for a Special Weather Statement.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ450>453.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ454-455.