Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Hill, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
630 AM Update...

Rain showers are starting to increase in coverage across the Western portion of the CWA, as expected. This coverage should continue to move eastward as the morning progresses. The forecast remains on track.

330 AM Update...

Cool and damp weather continue through the period as the trough pattern continues to dominate the weather pattern.

Isolated rain showers and drizzle continue across the region tonight as the surface and mid level low pressure system centered over western Lake Ontario continues to spin in place.
Guidance shows the surface and mid level low sliding eastward this morning and merging with a stronger low off the New England coast. As this occurs, another upper level shortwave will dig into the region from the Great Lakes. This feature, combined with NW flow providing enhanced moisture from the lakes and moisture wrapping around the broad trough pattern, will kick off another round of widespread rain showers across the region today. Most of the persistent rain is expected north of the Southern Tier, with periodic showers reaching into NEPA. QPF amounts were bumped up from NBM guidance as it was not picking up on the enhanced moisture provided by the NW flow off the lakes. Up to 0.50in is expected across the northern and eastern Finger Lakes into southern Oneida and the northern Catskills through Friday evening. Showers become more scattered Friday night as the mid-level shortwave weakens. NW flow, abundant moisture, and continued shortwave lift will allow scattered showers to remain across CNY through Saturday.

Temps will remain cold for the end of May, with highs today in the upper 40s to low 50s. Saturday will see slightly warmer temps, with a few valley spots climbing into the upper 50s.
Friday night lows will remain in the low to mid 40s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
310 AM Update...

Unsettled weather is to be expected heading into the new week.
An exiting closed upper level low off the coast of Maine will determine if the dreary light rain showers maintain through Monday night. The GFS keeps the low in place through Monday, which would result in lighter intensity rain showers to continue through the holiday weekend. On the other hand, the ECMWF progresses the low away, and weak high pressure pushes into the area from the northeast, which would result in mitigating chances for rain showers for Sunday and Monday. For now, we have general chances for rain showers both Sunday and Monday, but this could change as we continue to receive updated model solutions over the next few days. A slight warmer trend is expected, with temperatures increasing from the upper 50s/low 60s Sunday to the mid 60s/low 70s on Monday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
310 AM Update...

Closer to normal temperatures expected for the long term period; upper 60s/low 70s. Unsettled weather continues with as upper level trough developing towards the end of the week. Model solutions depict very unorganized weather. For now, we have general chances for rain showers.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Rain shower coverage will increase across CNY as the morning progresses. WNW flow spreads across the area by late AM/early PM, pushing ceilings into IFR territory for ITH, SYR and RME through the afternoon and into the overnight hours as lake enhanced rain spreads across the area. BGM will stay IFR this morning, but some drier air is expected to work its way into the Twin Tiers later this morning which should lift ceilings to MVFR. If rain showers slide a little farther south and remain at BGM in the afternoon hours, IFR conditions could remain. BGM is right on the southern border of the expected rain so conditions will be determined by the positioning of the rain shield. ELM and AVP should become VFR this afternoon as drier air works in and rain showers dissipate, but will fall back to MVFR towards the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Saturday...Wet pattern persists over CNY with restrictions and waves of rain showers likely.

Sunday into Monday...Isolated showers with a low chance of restrictions.

Tuesday...High pressure builds in with VFR conditions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.