Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Burdett, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
900 AM Update...

High pressure keeps conditions calm this morning with minor changes needed. Updated temperatures and dew points to blend in current observations. Otherwise forecast remains on track at this time.

Previous discussion...
Main concern in this period will be the potential for scattered to numerous strong or severe thunderstorms arriving Tuesday afternoon/evening. See below for more details.

Today's weather will feature high pressure, sunny skies, light winds and warm temperatures. A 1026mb high will be directly overhead which will bring light west-southwest winds less than 10 mph into this afternoon. There could be a few high level cirrus clouds, otherwise skies will be clear. Looks for high temperatures between 70-75 degrees in most locations.

The surface high slides off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight, with south-southeast winds gradually increasing between 5 to 15 mph.
Skies should remain clear to mostly clear and overnight lows will be milder in the mid-40s to lower 50s.

Tuesday morning starts off quiet, as our are will be firmly in the open warm sector of a 996mb surface low well off to the north in South-central Quebec. South winds become breezy at times by afternoon, 10-20 mph. Temperatures will surge into the upper 70s and lower 80s by afternoon. Increasing low level moisture advects in from the west with sfc Tds rising into the mid-50s to low 60s along and west of I-81 late in the day. This combination will support increasing instability over the region; again especially west of I-81, where MLCAPE could reach 500-1200 J/Kg by early evening
Strong, deep shear will be present
likely between 40-50 kts in the 0-6km layer. There will also be sufficient low level shear upwards of 30kts in the 0-1km layer noted on 00z HRRR forecast soundings for parts of the Finger Lakes, Syracuse area and NW Oneida County. SPC is maintaining the Enhanced Risk northwest of a Elmira--Cortland--Rome Line, with the main threat being strong damaging winds from any storms that can form into segments. Uncertainty remains in the timing, amount of instability and exact wind shear profiles for this event. CAMs are struggling to come into agreement on convective initiation timing and storm modes. If the ingredients can come together then severe storms, with even some isolated tornadoes will be possible. The main parameter to watch will be how fast and efficiently surface or low level moisture can increase...will surface dew points rise quickly into the lower 60s Tuesday afternoon. This will have a big impact on the amount of CAPE/Instability present as well as LCL levels. The short term guidance is starting to come into better agreement that the pre- frontal trough will move through west-central NY between about 2-8 PM Tuesday; and this will be when the greatest potential for storms will be. Then, the actual cold front comes through toward midnight, with perhaps a last line of gusty storms along it. Overall, confidence is still only moderate as far as how widespread any severe convection will ultimately be. Stay tuned for updates as confidence increases on how this event will unfold.

For the first few hours of Tuesday night, strong to severe storms are expected to be on-going with the passage of a cold front. Storms are expected to sweep from the northwest to southeast, and are currently expected to end by 03Z for the majority of solutions. The only outlier is the NAM currently, with having storms initiate around 00/01Z, and last through 05/06Z. All other solutions favor storm initiation between 18Z to 22Z. Possible threats include damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
140 PM Update...
Cooler yet benign dry conditions start this period off Wednesday, followed by increasing temperatures and also eventually rain chances.

Post-frontal environment will dominate Wednesday as high pressure starts to build in. There will still be some northwest winds gusting around 10-20 mph, and even some post-frontal clouds early on. However, eventually sunny conditions are expected, and there will be dry air mixing down from above the boundary layer which is typical of cool Spring air masses. Prior rainfall could make it a moot point in terms of fire weather, but minimum humidity levels of upper 20s-upper 30s percent will be found from Twin Tiers and I-88 corridor southward. Winds will also be diminishing which may also mitigate things.

After a quiet night with lows of mid 30s to mid 40s, a warm front is projected to lift into the area Thursday with increasing temperatures, clouds, and eventually showers.
There will be plenty of dry low level air to overcome and thus most of Thursday itself will probably be dry. However, late Thursday into Thursday night, showers are likely. Minor instability aloft, above a fairly stable surface layer, points to at least a small possibility of embedded thunder. That said, heavy rain is not anticipated, nor is strong to severe convection. Mid 60s-lower 70s for highs Thursday, will be followed by a mild night in the warm sector of the incoming system, with lows of 50s to near 60.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
140 PM Update...
A passing cold front with showers and thunder on and initially warm Friday, will be followed by cooler conditions with some lingering showers possible into at least into early Saturday before things dry out over the rest of the weekend.

A fairly warm day is forecast for Friday, with highs mainly in the 70s, though this will depend on timing for a cold front trailing from low pressure moving into Canada. Those details will also determine to what degree instability can be realized to yield thunder in addition to the likely showers Friday.
Severe thunderstorms are not currently anticipated, though there is enough flow being depicted in the 3-6km layer for us to want to keep an eye on it. At least some instability would suggest a chance of thunderstorms.

Cooler conditions are expected over the weekend, in the wake of the system. The front will easily be through by early Saturday, but a trough may still be pivoting through aloft along with moist cyclonic flow out of the northwest. Thus, there is a decent chance for clouds and scattered showers to linger a bit into Saturday. Highs are forecast in the 50s to lower 60s, and eventually the drier incoming air will win to cease rain chances heading into Saturday night with lows of mid 30s to lower 40s.
If the sky clears out faster, patchy frost cannot be ruled out.
A high pressure center will pass just to our south, yet dominant enough for generally dry conditions Sunday with forecast highs of upper 50s to mid 60s.

AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
645 AM Update

VFR conditions will prevail areawide over the next 24 hours.
There will be mainly clear skies, with just a few high cirrus clouds from time to time possible.

Light west-southwest or variable winds less than 10 kts are expected through the TAF period. Low Level Wind Shear is also expected at ELM, ITH, SYR, RME and AVP after 06-09z Tuesday morning; with SW winds around 35 kts at 2k ft AGL.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Potential for afternoon or evening showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions possible.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered rain showers, mainly during the afternoon and through the evening.

Friday...Rain showers likely and a slight chance for thunderstorms with associated restrictions at times.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.