Wednesday, October28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Gold Beach, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:41AMSunset 6:12PM Wednesday October 28, 2020 7:59 AM PDT (14:59 UTC) Moonrise 4:29PMMoonset 3:47AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 214 Am Pdt Wed Oct 28 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, N wind 5 to 10 kt...backing to nw in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 6 ft. Mixed swell nw 2 ft at 11 seconds and S 1 ft at 12 seconds.
Tonight..Northern portion, N wind 20 to 25 kt...easing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Brookings southward, S wind 5 kt early in the evening...veering to n, then...backing to W after midnight... Becoming variable less than 5 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. Mixed swell nw 2 ft at 11 seconds and S 1 ft at 11 seconds.
Thu..Northern portion, ne wind 5 to 15 kt... Backing to N 5 kt in the afternoon. Brookings southward, E wind 5 kt in the morning...becoming variable less than 5 kt, then...becoming W 5 kt late in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft in the morning... Becoming 2 ft or less. Mixed swell nw 2 ft at 10 seconds and S 1 ft at 11 seconds.
Thu night..Northern portion, N wind 5 to 10 kt. Brookings southward, wind variable less than 5 kt...becoming N 5 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 ft.
Fri night..N wind 10 to 15 kt...veering to ne 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 ft in the evening... Becoming 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 3 ft in the evening, then...becoming 2 ft or less after midnight. NW swell 4 ft...subsiding to 2 ft.
Sun..N wind 5 kt...veering to E after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 2 ft...building to 5 ft.
PZZ300 214 Am Pdt Wed Oct 28 2020
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..A thermal trough along the coast will move onshore this morning with winds and seas gradually diminishing. Calmer conditions are expected tonight through the end of the week. A weak front will move onshore Friday but conditions should remain below small craft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gold Beach, OR
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location: 42.43, -124.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 281147 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 447 AM PDT Wed Oct 28 2020

.Updated Aviation Discussion.

DISCUSSION. Clear skies exist across all of the forecast area this morning as strong, vertically stacked high pressure extends across the area from the Eastern Pacific into the Northern Rockies. Light to moderate easterly winds are occuring across the upper slopes and ridges and a strong inversion is present. These clear skies and dry air (though generally not as dry as the last few days) are leading to seasonably cold temperatures for most valley floor locations, but unseasonably warm conditions across the upper slopes and ridges. For instance, while it's currently 36 degrees in both Grants Pass and Roseburg, it's currently around 70 degrees at the Red Mound and Flynn Prairie RAWS in the Curry County Coastal Mountains.

While it's still quite dry across the area this morning, dewpoints have risen at most lower to mid-elevations by 5 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit. This could result in some patchy fog around sunrise across the lower valleys of Coos and Douglas counties. Some areas that have been cold enough for frost, but have not had it due to the very low dewpoints will likely see more frost this morning.

The warming trend we've been in since Monday is expected to peak Thursday, with highs in the 60s and 70s for most locations. That's about 10 degrees above normal for the calendar day.

A weak cold front and related marine push may bring some light rain or drizzle across Coos and Douglas counties Friday into Saturday. This will bring with it a slight cool down along with another surge of north and then easterly winds across the area.

For next week, ensemble models are trending for the high pressure ridge that's been over us to break eastward and a new axis of high pressure to set up in the Gulf of Alaska. This is likely to open the door for some frontal systems to arrive from the northwest. Typically, a pattern such as that results in light to moderate precipitation and near to cooler than normal temperatures and is indicative of La Nina- which is what we're in. The first opportunity for precipitation continues to be centered on November 3rd-4th. Areas that get downsloped under such a flow such as NorCal and the east side could end up with little to no precipitation, however. Of course, we're talking about 7 to 8 days out, so stay tuned, as details could change. ~BTL

AVIATION. For the 28/12Z TAFS . VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. The exception will be at North Bend where visibility is currently at 4 miles. The latest satellite image which shows fog and or low clouds does not show anything there, so suspect there could be patchy shallow fog near or around the airfield which could be a contributing factor and it's possible visibility could fluctuate some in the next few hours. The TAF shows visibility improving at 16z, but confidence is not high and it could actually improve sooner or later than 16z, so watch for updates. -Petrucelli

MARINE. Updated 200 AM PDT Wednesday 28 Oct 2020 . A thermal through will move onshore early this morning with winds and seas gradually diminishing. Tonight, winds and seas will diminish further, but there's still a chance for small craft conditions for the southern outer waters. Calmer conditions are expected Thursday through the end of the week. A weak front will move onshore Friday but conditions should remain below Small Craft. North winds increase this weekend, but they should still remain below Small Craft. -Petrucelli

FIRE WEATHER. Updated 300 AM PDT Wednesday, Oct 28, 2020 . RHs are in the teens and 20s this morning across many upper slope and ridge top locations. Meanwhile, observed winds are on the high end of the SPC HREF Guidance across FWZs 618, 619, 621, and 280. This has led and is leading to localized Red Flag Warning weather conditions across these fire weather zones along some of the upper slopes and ridges. Currently, the Squaw Peak, Onion Mountain, and Bolan RAWS are reporting RFW criteria weather, and the RAWS at Slater Butte and Red Mound reached criteria earlier. Guidance suggests winds will trend downward this morning, but they have, thus far, been higher and slower to fall than the guidance has indicated. Therefore, will add a headline to the forecast this morning for very low RHs and gusty winds for the above mentioned FWZs through this morning.

High Resolution Ensemble Model guidance suggests that, after winds diminish this morning and we experience yet another dry RH day today, RHs will fall even lower across the upper slopes and ridges tonight into Thursday morning, particularly across the Warner Mountains, Cascades, Siskiyous, and mountains of Siskiyou County. In fact, RHs Thursday morning are expected to be in the single digits for many of those mentioned locations. Since wind is expected to be light to calm, however, RFW conditions are not expected. Will therefore, headline the expected very dry RHs/very poor RH recoveries.

RHs are expected to finally trend upward Thursday night into Friday as a weak cold front turns the wind flow onshore. Light rain or drizzle will be possible across Coos and Douglas counties before yet another round of east wind Friday night into Saturday. Models suggest RHs will be moderate to good during that time period, so currently expect headlines will not be needed for that time period.

For next week, ensemble models are trending for the high pressure ridge that's been over us to break eastward and a new axis of high pressure to set up in the Gulf of Alaska. This is likely to open the door for some frontal systems to arrive from the north or northwest. Typically, a pattern such as this results in light to moderate precipitation and near to cooler than normal temperatures and is indicative of La Nina- which is what we're in. The first opportunity for precipitation continues to be centered on November 3rd-4th. Areas that get downsloped under such a flow such as NorCal and the east side could end up with little to no precipitation, however. Of course, we're talking about 7 to 8 days out, so stay tuned. ~BTL

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . - Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. - Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT early this morning for PZZ376.

BTL/MAP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 22 mi59 min NNW 9.9 G 17 61°F 47°F1020 hPa (-0.0)
46015 - Port Orford - 16 NM West of Port Orford, OR 32 mi39 min N 21 G 27 52°F 49°F1019.7 hPa48°F
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 40 mi39 min NNW 5.8 G 7.8 48°F1018.8 hPa
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 49 mi59 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1 49°F 50°F1018.5 hPa (+0.9)

Wind History for Port Orford, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR25 mi63 minN 010.00 miFair55°F37°F53%1018.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBOK

Wind History from BOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3CalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmS3S4NW35563W44CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--Calm
1 day ago5SW33SW3CalmW44454NW5N4435Calm3CalmCalmCalmSW4W3Calm3
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Tide / Current Tables for Wedderburn, Rogue River, Oregon
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Wedderburn
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:35 AM PDT     1.15 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:46 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:46 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:50 AM PDT     6.35 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:14 PM PDT     1.26 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:28 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:07 PM PDT     5.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.93.92.81.81.21.21.82.84.15.36.16.35.953.82.61.71.31.42.23.24.45.35.6

Tide / Current Tables for Port Orford, Oregon
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Port Orford
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:29 AM PDT     1.39 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:47 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:47 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:52 AM PDT     7.13 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:09 PM PDT     1.57 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:28 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:14 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:09 PM PDT     6.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.54.43.12.11.51.52.13.34.766.97.16.75.74.4321.61.82.63.855.96.3

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.