Monday, September28, 2020
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Gold Beach, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 7:02PM Sunday September 27, 2020 10:50 PM PDT (05:50 UTC) Moonrise 4:44PMMoonset 1:45AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 901 Pm Pdt Sun Sep 27 2020
.gale warning in effect until 2 am pdt Monday...
.hazardous seas warning in effect from 2 am pdt Monday through Monday morning...
Tonight..N wind 20 to 25 kt...becoming ne 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, N wind 15 kt... Veering to ne after midnight. Wind waves 7 to 10 ft...subsiding to 5 to 8 ft after midnight. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy smoke.
Mon..N wind 10 to 15 kt...easing to 5 kt in the afternoon. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, N wind 5 kt...veering to ne in the morning, then...backing to nw in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 6 ft. Mixed swell nw 3 ft at 15 seconds and sw 1 to 2 ft at 18 seconds. Patchy smoke through the day.
Mon night..N wind 5 kt...veering to se after midnight. Wind waves 3 ft in the evening...becoming 2 ft or less. NW swell 5 to 6 ft at 19 seconds...building to W 9 ft at 17 seconds after midnight. Patchy smoke through the night.
Tue..SE wind 5 kt...veering to S in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 7 to 9 ft.
Tue night..S wind 5 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 6 to 7 ft.
Wed..SE wind 5 kt...veering to W in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 ft.
Wed night..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 ft.
Thu..N wind 10 kt...backing to nw in the afternoon and evening, then...veering to ne after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 8 ft.
Fri..Wind variable less than 5 kt...becoming N 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 7 ft... Subsiding to 5 ft.
PZZ300 901 Pm Pdt Sun Sep 27 2020
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..A strong thermal trough along the coast will result in moderate to strong north winds and steep to very steep wind driven seas tonight. Winds will then gradually ease and become northeast, but steep seas will continue into Monday morning. A long period northwest swell moves into the waters Monday afternoon and peaks Monday night. Calmer conditions are expected Tuesday and should last for most of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gold Beach, OR
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location: 42.43, -124.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 280540 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1040 PM PDT Sun Sep 27 2020

Updated AVIATION Section

DISCUSSION. Today is a transition day towards much drier and warmer conditions, and winds have picked up as well. Curry County featured conditions that will be most similar to what we can expect at most areas tonight into tomorrow. Gusty east winds, low humidity, and high temperatures in the 90s were observed today, and this has been drying out the vegetation there from the recent rainfall and higher humidity. Elsewhere, humidity today trended 30 to 50 percent lower than yesterday, and temperatures trended 10+ degrees F higher than yesterday. The air mass dries out further tonight and tomorrow, and east winds begin to increase and overspread the higher terrain tonight . and then fill into many valleys between early and late Monday morning. The atmosphere tomorrow will likely get about as dry as it gets for late September, per SPC sounding climatology. Widespread 10 to 20 mph sustained winds with gusts to 40 mph on the ridgetops are expected tonight into tomorrow. Critical fire weather conditions are expected for much of the forecast area, and we continue to repeat, "One less spark, one less wildfire". Avoid any fire tomorrow or anything that could potentially create a spark.

Please see the nicely detailed previous forecast discussion for more details on this hot, dry, and windy pattern tomorrow . and the subsequent long-duration hot and dry weather.

AVIATION. For the 28/06Z TAFs . VFR will prevail across the area tonight through Monday as offshore flow and a drying pattern return in earnest. There can be some patchy river valley fog, especially for some of the more sheltered coastal valleys toward sunrise. But, even there, any lower conditions will be short-lived.

Light winds are expected at the surface at most TAF sites due to a developing low-level inversion. However, 1500-2000 ft AGL winds in the 25-35kt range will continue and result in (at the very least) some turbulence in and out of terminals overnight into Monday morning. We've also indicated the potential for low-level wind shear (LLWS) during this period in the North Bend and Medford TAFs. The surface inversion will break mid-late morning Monday and in any valleys where the flow is aligned with the flow aloft (ESE), we expect some wind gusts to reach the surface. Gusts to 25 kt are possible at Medford, especially after 18z. -Spilde

MARINE. Updated 830 PM PDT Sunday 27 September 2020 . A strong thermal trough along the coast this evening will expand northward tonight. Gale force winds will gradually lower with gusty north to northeast winds persisting into Monday, but also diminishing through the day. Seas will remain steep to very steep through Monday morning, but will subside, especially near shore in the afternoon/evening. Then, a long-period northwest swell will build into the waters by Monday evening, keeping seas hazardous to small craft through late Monday night peaking at 10-11 ft at 16 to 18 seconds. Seas will gradually subside Tuesday, and conditions should remain below advisory criteria through the end of the week. Guidance indicates another long period northwest swell Thursday between 8 and 9 feet with a 14-15 second period. -Spilde

BEACH HAZARDS. Updated 230 PM PDT Sunday 27 September 2020 . A long period northwest swell is expected to move into the waters off the Oregon Coast Monday morning. This will bring an increased risk of dangerous sneaker waves. Sneaker waves are waves that run up the beach significantly farther than other waves without warning. These waves can knock unsuspecting beach goers over and pull them out into the very cold Pacific Ocean waters. Also, these waves are very powerful and can lift or carry logs and other beach debris, potentially crushing or trapping people. Keep your distance from the ocean when there is a threat of sneaker waves. NEVER turn your back on the ocean!

FIRE WEATHER. Updated 900 PM PDT Sunday 27 September 2020 .

One update was done to the Red Flag Warning this evening. We added the Grants Pass area to the Red Flag Warning because we expect gusty east winds to overspread that area tomorrow.

A rapid warming and drying trend is expected today through Tuesday, with continued very warm temperatures into next weekend. High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 90s in the Rogue valley and near 100 in western Siskiyou county by Monday. The thermal trough has deepened on the southern Oregon coast, resulting in a tight pressure gradient that is producing strong northeast to east winds across the higher elevations on the southern coastal ranges. Tonight into Monday, the easterly winds are expected to strengthen across ridges from the Cascades west, with gusty winds and locally very poor recoveries expected.

The thermal trough spreads north late Monday and into Tuesday, allowing winds to weaken. However with high pressure remaining in control, along with continued subsidence and prolonged offshore flow, dry conditions will continue with low daytime humidities and moderate to poor recoveries, especially over the ridgelines.

Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for southwest Oregon and far northern California. This includes an extension of the Red Flag Warning for portions of Fire Weather Zones 621, 622, and 623. Recoveries are expected to be poorer Monday night that tonight, and despite winds weakening, they are expected to remain breezy enough in these areas to keep critical conditions ongoing through Monday night. More information and details on all of the current fire weather hazards can be found at PDXRFWMFR.

After very warm days Monday and Tuesday, temperatures will cool slightly, but are still expected to remain well above normal through the rest of the week. Humidities will also remain low, but calmer winds should preclude any additional fire weather concerns. -BPN

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 520 PM PDT Sun Sep 27 2020/

DISCUSSION . Low clouds in the Umpqua Valley dissipated this morning. With very strong high pressure now building northeast into our area, it is forecast to be until areas of coastal low clouds develop Thursday night before we see any more clouds. From Thursday night through at least Sunday night, these clouds look to be mainly north of Cape Blanco and occur during the typical late evening through early morning hours. Along with the lack of cloud cover, our area is likely to be without any risk of rainfall at least through next Sunday. In fact, a majority of GEFS and ECMWF ensemble model members continue dry weather through the next 10 days.

That leaves temperatures and winds as the main topic of discussion. The duration of this event and the wind strength will be typical to perhaps just a bit more noteworthy than would be expected for an early fall easterly wind episode. But, the heat this week will be extreme at times.

The Curry County coast will be at its hottest this afternoon and Monday afternoon. It was 88 degrees at Brookings at 3 PM. If it doesn't reach the lower 90s there during the remainder of this afternoon, it should on Monday. The Heat Advisory /PDXNPWMFR/ for Curry County remains in effect through Tuesday morning. Light southerly winds will reach the Brookings area by Tuesday afternoon and bring cooling into Wednesday morning. From Tuesday into Thursday, Curry coast high temperatures should be in the 70s . near the forecast readings expected from Monday through Thursday along other portions of our coast.

Inland, high temperatures will trend higher into Thursday with near record to record readings each day. A very good rule of thumb for our area, year-round, is that it is quite typical to experience temperatures within a range of 10 degrees below normal to 10 degrees above normal. In this case, highs of 20 to 25 degrees above normal will be common across the area through Thursday, with only a few degrees of cooling on Friday. Changes to temperatures in the short term portion of the forecast were mainly small/fine tuning. A cooling trend is still expected Friday through next weekend, but the weather in the long term was adjusted warmer and drier. Common readings will be in the upper 80s to lower 100s on the west side, lower 70s to mid 80s in the mountains, and the 80s to lower 90s east of the Cascades.

Given the time of the year, shortness of daylight, there will be a wide range between low and high temperatures. This will be most extreme on the east side. Valley lows in the lower 30s to mid 40s will rise by as much as 60 degrees to highs in the lower 90s.

The strongest winds will occur tonight through Tuesday morning. The pressure gradient associated with the thermal trough at the coast strengthens into Monday morning. Gusty easterly winds will develop on mid slopes and ridges from the Cascades west tonight and early Monday. Dry humidities will accompany these winds. Also, gusty winds are forecast to mix down to many valley areas on Monday, mainly late morning, but as early as early Monday morning in southern Jackson County.

Winds gusting to around 25 to 35 mph are expected over the mountains. Some valleys, such as the southern Rogue Valley and across much of the east side, will see winds of 10 to 20 mph gusting as high as 30 mph. In the southern Rogue Valley these will occur from 4 AM to 4 PM on Monday, then weaken briefly Monday evening before becoming 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

The combination of gusty winds and low humidities tonight into Tuesday has resulted in elevated fire weather concerns. Please see the Red Flag Warning product /PDXRFWMFR/ and fire weather discussion below for further details. Winds will lower near the coast Monday night and more broadly Tuesday as the thermal trough builds northward, then tracks inland with the surface pressure gradient weakening across the area. Winds Wednesday through Friday will be noticeably weaker.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Beach Hazards Statement from Monday morning through late Monday night for ORZ021-022. Red Flag Warning from midnight tonight to 8 PM PDT Monday for ORZ618>620. Heat Advisory until noon PDT Tuesday for ORZ022-024. Red Flag Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM PDT Tuesday for ORZ621>623.

CA . Red Flag Warning from midnight tonight to 8 PM PDT Monday for CAZ280. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM PDT Monday for CAZ281-282-284-285.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Gale Warning until 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning from 2 AM to 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-370-376.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 22 mi50 min NNW 11 G 19 64°F 57°F1020.9 hPa (-0.7)
46015 - Port Orford - 16 NM West of Port Orford, OR 32 mi30 min NNE 21 G 27 61°F 58°F1020.3 hPa57°F
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 40 mi30 min N 25 G 29 56°F1015.5 hPa
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 49 mi50 min N 6 G 7 66°F 55°F1015.1 hPa (+0.4)

Wind History for Port Orford, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR25 mi54 minNNW 510.00 miFair81°F48°F32%1016.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBOK

Wind History from BOK (wind in knots)
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1 day ago3SE4SE3SE4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm33S43W3W6W6NW9NW7NW10NW6NW5CalmNE4
2 days agoCalmSE3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalm43E444S7SE6SE8S6SE4CalmSE5SE4SE5SE4SE35

Tide / Current Tables for Wedderburn, Rogue River, Oregon
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Wedderburn
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:48 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:34 AM PDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:12 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:02 AM PDT     5.85 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:50 PM PDT     2.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:12 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:03 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:34 PM PDT     6.18 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.73.42.110.30.30.923.44.65.55.95.64.93.932.32.22.53.44.45.46.16.1

Tide / Current Tables for Port Orford, Oregon
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Port Orford
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:48 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:29 AM PDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:12 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:06 AM PDT     6.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:44 PM PDT     2.59 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:13 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:03 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:33 PM PDT     6.87 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.13.72.210.30.312.33.75.16.16.56.25.44.43.42.72.6345.16.16.86.8

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.