Fredonia, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fredonia, NY

February 20, 2024 5:07 PM EST (22:07 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:04 AM   Sunset 5:56 PM
Moonrise 1:59 PM   Moonset 5:24 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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LEZ040 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 948 Am Est Tue Feb 20 2024

This afternoon - Southeast winds less than 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.

Tonight - East winds 10 knots or less becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Moonlit skies. Waves 2 feet or less.

Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny in the morning, then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.

Wednesday night - South winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.

Thursday - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Rain likely. Waves 2 feet or less.

Friday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Saturday - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

LEZ005
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fredonia, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 201907 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 207 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure over Maine this evening will drift east across the Canadian maritimes late tonight and Wednesday. This will maintain fair dry weather...while temperatures Wednesday will soar to near 50 across the western counties. Conditions will then deteriorate...as a slow moving frontal boundary will generate some widespread rain Thursday and Thursday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
High pressure exiting from Maine to the Canadian maritimes will support a clear...moonlit sky across the region tonight. It will not be as cold as last night though...as a light and variable flow will become southerly overnight on the backside of the departing sfc high. The mercury should average some 10 to 15 degrees higher as a result...with mins ranging from the 20s across the western counties to the teens across the North country.

A very nice day is then in store for Wednesday...as a deepening southerly flow between the aforementioned departed sfc high and a large but diffuse storm system over the Rockies will encourage temperatures to climb to near 50 across many of the western counties. This will be aided by another day of wall to wall sunshine.

Clouds will increase and thicken during the course of Wednesday night...as a wavy frontal boundary will slowly make its way across the Mississippi valley. While a shortwave in the northern branch of a split flow will cross just to our north in the process...most areas should remain pcpn free for the overnight
Meanwhile
the trend of higher temperatures will continue as mins will only be in the mid to upper 30s for most areas.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Shortwave energy tracking through the central CONUS and approaching diffuse frontal boundary will bring increasing chances of light rain by late Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. The initial cold frontal segment begins to work east through the region by Friday morning. As this occurs we should see a rapid decrease in overall shower coverage, and more than likely quiet weather for a good chunk of the day Friday. A secondary 'Arctic' front is then advertised to plow through the Lower Lakes by late Friday afternoon. This will be the feature that brings in a much colder air mass to the area with H850T's falling to -16C to -22C. In addition to the falling temperatures it will turn breezy with gusty northwest winds up to 40 mph
In terms of lake effect potential
it will definitely be cold enough to support it behind this front
However
the air mass behind the front is very dry with limited synoptic moisture.
Furthermore northwest flow isn't a favorable wind direction for decent lake effect considering the shorter fetch. For these reasons....have only chance PoPs (30-40%) south of both lakes with limited accumulations Friday night. Despite the lack of lake effect potential it will turn sharply colder with mercury readings falling off into the teens and single digits by Saturday morning.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Following the passage of the late week system...the axis of deep/ sharp upper-level troughing will quickly pivot across our region on Saturday...with consensus 850 mb temperatures bottoming out well down in the negative teens
At the surface
this will translate into highs only reaching the lower to mid 20s across much of western New York...and not making it out of the teens across the North Country. While such a cold airmass will easily support lake effect
its rather dry nature
a short northwesterly fetch...and a cap only in the vicinity of 5 kft should all help to keep any snow showers southeast of the lakes on the lighter side. Expect these to be best organized during the early to mid-morning hours...with building surface-based ridging and late winter diurnal influences then helping to disrupt and weaken these as we push through the rest of the day.

The aforementioned surface ridge will then crest across our region Saturday evening...before drifting east and off the Atlantic coastline on Sunday. At the same time a northern stream mid-level trough will pivot across central Canada and encourage its associated surface low to push across northern Ontario and Quebec...with its trailing cold front approaching our northwestern periphery by later in the day Sunday. In between these two systems a strengthening south-southwesterly flow of milder air will overspread our region...
resulting in any leftover spotty lake effect drifting northward and falling apart between Saturday night/early Sunday...and also bringing a return to considerably milder temperatures during Sunday...when highs should recover to 35-40 east of Lake Ontario and to the low-mid 40s elsewhere. Later Sunday afternoon the approaching cold front could set off a few light rain and wet snow showers...
however the bulk of the day should turn out to be dry.

Sunday night the surface low will fill as it drifts across northern Quebec...with its trailing cold front correspondingly weakening as it crosses our region. Given this and the considerable distance from the parent low...any associated rain and snow showers should remain fairly light and scattered in nature...with the greatest potential for these found across the North Country which will lie closest to the base of the supporting mid-level trough. By Monday morning this system will be out of our region...with building ridging at all levels offering a dry day. With the latest model consensus suggesting that the brief cool shot immediately following the front may be shorter/more limited in scope...and thus more likely to give way to the beginnings of another round of warm advection during Monday...have opted to continue with a general warming trend with highs on Monday forecast to range from the low-mid 40s across the North Country to the 45-50 range elsewhere.

After that low-level ridging looks to slide off the east coast Monday night and Tuesday...while the next mid-level trough digs across the northern Plains states and encourages the development of a rather broad low pressure system stretching from near James Bay to the Mississippi Valley. The strengthening/deepening southerly flow of progressively warmer air in between these two systems will help to push temperatures up to springlike levels for the end of this period...with Tuesday's highs currently expected to reach well into the 50s across much of the area. The overall warm advection pattern will also support an increasing potential for some showers during Tuesday...for which chance PoPs are currently in place.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions with light winds can be expected through Wednesday night.

Outlook...

Thursday and Thursday night...MVFR with some rain developing.
Friday...VFR to MVFR in mixed rain and snow showers.
Saturday....Mainly VFR conditions with scattered snow showers ending.
Sunday...Mainly VFR weather.

MARINE
Surface high pressure over Maine will exit across the Canadian maritimes tonight. This will leave gentle southerly breezes and negligible waves across the lower Great Lakes region.

There may be uptick in southerly winds Wednesday into Thursday, especially across the eastern end of Lake Ontario, which may peak around 20 knots.

A cold front will cross the lower Great Lakes late in the week with strengthening northwest winds developing by late Friday into Saturday with small craft headlines likely during this period.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 4 mi67 min ENE 7G7 35°F 30.34
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 24 mi49 min 36°F 30.29
NREP1 27 mi97 min ENE 6G9.9
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 39 mi49 min WNW 1.9G2.9 39°F 34°F30.2915°F
EREP1 44 mi49 min ENE 11G13
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 48 mi49 min 43°F 30.29


Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KDKK CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY/DUNKIRK,NY 6 sm14 minN 0510 smClear43°F19°F39%30.32
KJHW CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY/JAMESTOWN,NY 20 sm11 minvar 0410 smClear30.26
Link to 5 minute data for KDKK


Wind History from DKK
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Tide / Current for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of great lakes   
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Buffalo, NY,



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