Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fredonia, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) A cold front will bring a period of showers this afternoon and evening.

2) Dry and cool conditions to start the weekend will trend much warmer with unsettled weather impacting our area from late this weekend through the first half of next week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front will bring a period of showers this afternoon and evening.

A mid level trough will advance east across Ontario and Quebec today, with an associated frontal zone providing a focus for rain across the eastern Great Lakes. The surface front will briefly retreat back northward as a warm front mid morning through early afternoon as a baroclinic wave develops along the front across southern lower Michigan. A few spotty showers south of Lake Ontario will end early this morning, with another batch of showers over Lake Ontario possibly clipping the Thousand islands region this morning.
Otherwise, mainly dry weather will prevail through midday.

The frontal wave will move quickly ENE along the boundary, with the front then sagging back southeast across the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon and evening as a cold front. Moisture convergence along the front will combine with DPVA and height falls ahead of the mid level shortwave and upper level jet support to bring a period of showers crossing the area from northwest to southeast this afternoon and evening. There may be just enough instability to support an isolated thunderstorm or two, mainly from the Southern Tier through the Finger Lakes to Central NY. The quick passage of the front will keep rainfall amounts modest, in the 0.25" to 0.50" range in most areas.

Rain will end from northwest to southeast tonight as the front and mid level shortwave exit the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry and cool conditions to start the weekend will trend much warmer with unsettled weather impacting our area from late this weekend through the first half of next week.

High pressure will provide a dry and cool start to the weekend, with dry weather expected to last through the first half of Sunday, before a strong push of WAA along the leading edge of a stout LLJ brings the potential for showers to the region for the second half of Sunday...especially further north toward the eastern Lake Ontario region. A wavy frontal boundary will then linger over or near the area through at least the first half of next week leading to rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms, although brief periods of dry time are expected between each successive bout of showers.

Otherwise, temperatures a bit below average Saturday in the wake of the cold frontal passage, will then see a day-to-day warming trend, soaring well above average through at least the middle of next week.

AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A frontal boundary will temporarily lift back northward to near the south shore of Lake Ontario mid morning to early afternoon as a weak wave of low pressure develops and runs along the front. A few spotty showers will continue early this morning just south and east of Lake Ontario, otherwise dry weather and VFR will prevail.

The front will then move southeast across the area this afternoon and evening, bringing with it a period of showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two. Moderate showers will bring some VSBY restrictions at times. CIGS will quickly deteriorate to widespread IFR along and behind the cold front late this afternoon and this evening. The showers will end from northwest to southeast tonight, and CIGS will improve to VFR for the lower elevation lake plains by late tonight, with MVFR/IFR lingering across higher terrain in post- frontal upslope flow.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR.

Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers in the afternoon.

Monday through Tuesday... VFR/MVFR with a few showers likely at times. Slight chance of thunderstorms.

MARINE
A frontal zone will stall just south of Lake Ontario today, then move southeast and away from the lower Great Lakes tonight. North to northeast winds will increase on Lake Ontario today north of the boundary, then become northwest tonight through Saturday morning.
This will produce choppy conditions at times, but winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

The next chance of Small Craft Advisory worthy winds and waves will not come until Sunday night and Monday as low pressure passes well north of the area.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.