Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fredonia, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
...FRIGID COLD WITH SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY...

Off Lake Erie...the heavy lake snows have settled further south into southern sections of Southern Erie county and northern Chautauqua/ Cattaraugus counties. So far this is remaining the dominant band...with what looked like a developing band further north a couple hours back fading and merging with the main band further south. This band lies roughly in between the GFS and GEM positions...and should hang in this vicinity for at least a while longer before starting to shift/redevelop back northward later on in the night as winds start to slowly back again.

Much like its Lake Erie counterpart...the heavy Lake Ontario lake snows have also whipsawed northward over the past few hours...with the northern edge of the band now affecting Watertown. Radar trends over Lake Ontario suggest that this band is now nearing its northern apex for the night...and should also begin shifting back south toward the Tug Hill in another hour or two as winds veer more westerly again...with the band then settling across areas between Watertown and the Tug for the latter part of the night.

Based on the snowfall reports we received earlier yesterday evening
have again bumped up snow amounts overnight
with ADDITIONAL amounts off Lake Erie expected to range between 4-8 inches...and Lake Ontario expected to range between 7 and 14 inches.
Locally higher amounts cannot be ruled out if either band locks into position for a bit longer than currently anticipated. Within both bands...average snowfall rates will be between 1 and 3 inches per hour.

Otherwise...it will be quite cold tonight with mins ranging from the lower single digits in most areas...to the below zero readings across the Srn Tier and in parts of the Eastern Lake Ontario region outside of the lake band.

Arctic air will continue to cross the lower Great Lakes Tuesday.
This will lead to bitter cold as 850 mb temperatures drop to as low as -25C, with high temperatures struggling to get much above the 5 to 15 above zero range. These temperatures combined with elevated winds will result in wind chills of zero to 10 below through the day.

The bitterly cold airmass and prevailing westerly to west-southwest flow will also maintain significant lake snows east/east-northeast of the lakes. Lake-induced equilibrium levels rising above 10 kft will result in the most intense snows developing Tuesday.

Off Lake Erie...

The heaviest lake snows should be ongoing from far northern portions of the Southern Tier to the Buffalo southtowns and southern Genesee county Tuesday morning. There should be a slight oscillation a little further northward during the late morning and early afternoon as the low level flow backs slightly sending the northern edge of the lake band into the city of Buffalo and to the Buffalo Airport for a time. Snowfall rates during this time will likely be at least an inch per hour.

Off Lake Ontario...

The heaviest lake snows should be ongoing from the northern Tug Hill region to Watertown Tuesday morning. The lake snows should edge a little further northward through the day as the low level flow backs slightly, bringing the heaviest snows a bit further north into the Watertown area. Snowfall rates during this time will likely be at least 2 inches per hour.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
A shortwave trough rounding the base of the longwave trough Tuesday will help pivot an pull the deep longwave trough further east Tuesday night and eventually into the Atlantic Ocean Wednesday. This will place the trough axis across the region Tuesday night along with its associated even colder arctic airmass to spill across New York State, bottoming out 850mb temperatures towards -25C and supporting a very cold night. Lows Tuesday night will plummet well below zero across much of the area, supporting wind chill values to range in the teens below zero and some twenty below zero values across the higher terrain. In addition to temperatures, ongoing lake effect east of both Lakes Erie and Ontario will continue throughout Tuesday night, gradually weakening heading into Wednesday morning.

Now with zonal flow aloft, and surface ridging nudging northward into the region Wednesday, some associated subtle warm air advection combined with the introduction of dry air will cause lake induced equilibrium levels to fall, thus resulting in the weakening of lake effect snows. However, with the surface ridge nudging northward into the region, winds will veer further south-southwest and shift snows across the areas northeast of the lakes throughout the course of the day. By Wednesday afternoon, lake effect activity will like north of both the Buffalo and Watertown metros.

As the weak ridge slides east towards and eventually off into the Atlantic Wednesday night into Thursday, weak low level troughing will slide across the western and central portions of the Great Lakes, resulting in a surface low to slide northeast from the central Great Lakes towards southern Quebec and introducing a frontal boundary to the western edge of the forecast area. Ahead of this frontal boundary, expect warm air advection modulating temperatures Thursday to warm up into the low to mid 20s. With the frontal boundary remaining along the western edge of the area a chance of snow showers is possible across WNY, with the area likely remaining dry.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
850mb temperatures will likely remain favorable to support lake effect snow throughout much of the end of the week into the start of the new work week. A passing shortwave trough late Thursday night into the start of Friday will result in an increase of low level moisture, thus increasing the chances for a lake response off of both lakes. With west-southwesterly flow will support these lake showers east of both Lakes Erie and Ontario.

With the trough exiting to the east and a ridge building into the region Friday night into Saturday morning, low-level flow will back further southwesterly and support lake bands to shift north. As a surface ridge slides east into the Atlantic Saturday, lake effect activity will peter out throughout the day as dry air is introduced into the area.

A surface low well north in Canada will slide a surface frontal boundary east across the Great Lakes region Saturday night through Monday, supporting chances for snow showers to spread across the area, with some lake enhancement possible east of the lakes.

Temperatures will gradually modulate back towards normal for late January.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Lake snows will continue to produce LIFR/IFR conditions east and northeast of the lakes through the TAF period...with these weakening and retracting back closer to the lakeshores from west to east as we push through Tuesday night and surface high pressure/drier air begins building across the region
Outside of the lake snows
conditions will be VFR.

Off Lake Erie...the lake snows will primarily affect areas between KJHW and KBUF through the rest of the night and into Tuesday morning...before lifting northward later Tuesday morning and Tuesday afternoon. This should bring some LIFR/IFR to KBUF Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday evening...with a few snow showers spraying off the edge of the band possibly bringing some brief MVFR to KIAG/KROC during the afternoon and evening. The band will then settle back south late Tuesday afternoon and night...resulting in conditions at KBUF returning to VFR Tuesday evening...and some MVFR developing at KJHW later on Tuesday night.

Off Lake Ontario...the lake snows will bring LIFR/IFR to KART through about 08z...before slipping back south to areas from the Tug Hill to just south of Watertown later tonight and Tuesday morning.
This will result in some temporary improvement to IFR/MVFR...before the band lifts back north again Tuesday afternoon and brings another round of LIFR to KART that should last until later Tuesday evening.
After that the band will slip back south and weaken again through the remainder of Tuesday night...with conditions at KART improving back to VFR.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Lake effect snow east of the lakes and attendant IFR/MVFR lifting northward and dissipating...with mainly VFR conditions elsewhere.
Thursday...Mainly VFR. Some weaker lake effect snow and reductions possible northeast of the lakes later on in the day.
Friday and Saturday...Restrictions possible east and southeast of the lakes in lake effect snow.

MARINE
A prolonged period of Small Craft Advisory conditions will occur on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through much of the week as one of the coldest airmasses of the season, and in a few years for that matter passes over the eastern Great Lakes. As such the combination of cold temperatures and breezy winds will bring freezing spray to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario as well from time to time through Thursday morning.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ001>005-010-011.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ006.
Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ006-008- 012>014-019>021-085.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ007- 008.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 4 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ010- 011.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 10 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ012- 019-020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ040-041.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for LOZ042.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for LOZ042>045-062>065.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for LOZ043- 044.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LOZ045.