Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fredonia, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Drying out, but chilly today with below normal temperatures.

2) Much warmer but unsettled weather through the first half of next week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Drying out, but chilly today with below normal temperatures.

A cool northwesterly flow may keep a stray shower or two going southeast of Lake Ontario and across the Tug Hill through mid morning. Otherwise, a strong area of high pressure over the central Great Lakes will continue to build east into the lower Great Lakes region today. This will help to erode much of the cloud cover through the morning hours, with most areas seeing plentiful sunshine this afternoon, however highs will be a bit below normal.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Much warmer but unsettled weather through much of next week.

Sunday will start dry as strong high pressure drifts off the New England coast. A warm front will then move northeast across the eastern Great Lakes Sunday afternoon and evening, bringing with it a few showers. The greatest chance of measurable rain will likely be found across the northern portion of the area in closer proximity to deeper moisture and stronger isentropic upglide.

Zonal flow will become established across the Great Lakes and Northeast US through the first half of next week, with a series of low amplitude shortwaves crossing the region. An east-west frontal zone will lay out across the Great Lakes and Northeast, and provide a focus for a few periods of showers and scattered thunderstorms.
Next week will not be a washout, but each of the fast moving weak features will bring an uptick in coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms. The first shortwave and area of deeper moisture is forecast to cross the eastern Great Lakes Monday, supporting a period of more widespread showers and a few isolated thunderstorms.
Beyond Monday, the timing of individual features and periods of greater rain coverage becomes much more uncertain.

Temperatures will trend well above average starting Monday, with warmth then persisting through the rest of the week. Highs will likely reach the 70s across the lower elevations inland from Lake Erie and Lake Ontario each day. A few locations may make a run at 80 by the middle of the week if shower and dense cloud coverage remains low enough.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Mainly VFR flight conditions across the lower terrain to start the 12Z TAF period as a strong area of high pressure continues to build in from the west, with any lingering MVFR/isolated IFR across the interior Southern Tier (KJHW) expected to become VFR by around mid morning, although MVFR may hang on across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario through late morning/midday.

High pressure will then remain in control with widespread VFR flight conditions expected from this afternoon through tonight. Northwest winds around 10 knots today will become light and variable tonight as high pressure crests overhead.

Outlook...

Sunday...Mainly VFR with scattered to numerous showers in the afternoon.

Monday through Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with a few showers likely at times, along with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

MARINE
Expect choppy conditions that will remain below SCA criteria on Lake Ontario today, with 10 to 15 knot northwest winds this morning, shifting to west this afternoon.

Otherwise, a freshening south to southwest breeze will bring the next chance of Small Craft Advisory conditions on Sunday night and Monday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.