Fredonia, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fredonia, NY


December 7, 2023 2:22 PM EST (19:22 UTC)
Sunrise 7:29AM   Sunset 4:46PM   Moonrise  1:49AM   Moonset 1:46PM 

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Marine Forecasts
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LEZ040 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 327 Am Est Thu Dec 7 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Rain likely early, then a chance of rain late this morning. A chance of rain showers this afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Rain Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Rain. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Rain and snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of rain showers Monday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.

LEZ005
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fredonia, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 071908 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 208 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will continue to slowly push through central New York today, producing some additional light snow across the eastern Lake Ontario region in the process. Notably milder air in its wake will overspread the region to end the week with temperatures climbing into the 50s by Saturday afternoon.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Radar imagery and surface obs this morning depict a narrow band of snow associated with mid-level warm air advection moving across the eastern Lake Ontario region. This combined with lake enhancement produced a burst of snow across the Buffalo metro area earlier this morning resulting in 2-3 inches accumulation. This band will continue to weaken as it moves east, and IR satellite imagery shows the deeper moisture which was with the front will diminish across Western NY this morning. With cloud tops below the DGZ, lowered model QPF, POPs, and snow amounts considerably behind the warm front. For most areas precipitation will likely mix with before changing entirely over to rain before ending as surface temps warm through the rest of the day.

While accumulating snows should be done for Western NY this afternoon as surface temps continue to warm, limited lake enhancement off Lake Ontario will maintain the risk for snow east of the lake through this evening. High res guidance suggests a meso-low may develop which would impact the Watertown area during this evening with the potential for a couple inches of snow.

Warm air advection then kicks in further tonight as shortwave ridging arrives from the west. Any lingering light snow/flurries on this evening will diminish and end overnight, last across the eastern Lake Ontario region. Temps will generally be steady given the warm air advection, likely staying at or above freezing across the lower elevations and only slightly below freezing for the higher terrain.

Fair weather for Friday with a light southerly flow in the lower levels and axis of mid level ridge passing overhead. This flow, along with building heights, will promote highs Friday well into the 40s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Mid level ridge axis centered across New York Friday night will slide east into New England Saturday. This will support an elongated surface high across the East Coast. Overall, with the building heights and subsidence from the high will promote a dry night along with a fairly dry day Saturday. Temperatures will continue to be on the warmer side with lows Friday night ranging in the upper 30s across the areas east of Lake Ontario to the low to mid 40s elsewhere. The warm spell will continue into Saturday as southerly flow will aid in some downsloping and support temperatures to warm up into the upper 40s across the Tug Hill region and in the low to mid 50s elsewhere.

Meanwhile, a deep trough will advance from the central United States and support a surface low and cold front to push across the central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley late Saturday and Saturday night. As the front approached the western doorstep of western New York, chances for rain showers will increase, with the best timing of the heavier precipitation arriving around daybreak Sunday. This all being said, the combination of the trough and the aforementioned surface high pressure on the Eastern Seaboard will funnel in moisture to the frontal zone not only from the Gulf of Mexico but also the Atlantic Ocean. Overall this will support moderate rain to fall late Saturday night. Otherwise, the warm mild temperatures will continue Saturday night with lows in the low to mid 40s region wide.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Active weather still in store Sunday into Monday with moderate to heavy rain on Sunday changing to several inches of wet snow Sunday night into early Monday from west to east.

After much uncertainty the last few days, models and ensembles are more or less on board with farther east track to wavy frontal boundary and waves of low pressure moving along it Sunday into Monday morning. Latest GFS did trend a bit west on Sunday night with the heavier QPF/snow, but also is an outlier now compared to its ensembles and other guidance/ensembles. This eastern shift occurs as shortwave trough digging across the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday swings across the northeast by Monday, but never quite phases with northern branch shortwave trough crossing northern Ontario and the upper Great Lakes. It was only when these two branches phased did we see a strong low passing to the west of here on Sunday that was advertised in the models earlier this week. That is not there now in guidance or ensembles though. Upshot is winds for our forecast area are not looking to be as strong either Sunday with the southerlies ahead of the system or with the west-northwest winds in the cold air behind the system. Heaviest rain on Sunday in the warm sector will occur where strongest moisture advection of abnormally high PWATs well over the 90th percentile occurs ahead of the front (eastern Finger Lakes northward to the eastern Lake Ontario region).
By late Sunday night, areas on the Tug Hill may see over 2 inches of liquid boosted by upslope flow. Farther west though, the gradient of QPF will be sharper with Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes near an inch while most of western NY sees 0.5 to 0.75 inch of liquid before the rain turns to snow. This heavy rain could cause some issues as model ensembles for river forecast points indicate a low, but non-zero chance some rivers especially in the Black River basin could rise to action stage with the rain and melting snow. This will have be to be monitored as we progress into the weekend.

As the next wave of low pressure lifts by on Sunday night, good agreement that switch from rain to snow occurs as early as dusk Sunday evening for higher terrain of southwest NYS, then eventually through the evening for the rest of western NY with most locations to snow by midnight. Quick change on to the east the rest of the night. All areas will see ptype of snow by daybreak on Monday. Only exception may be right along the Lake Ontario shoreline over far se portion of the lake with ra/sn mix. It is certainly possible winter headlines may eventually be needed for the change to wet snow Sunday night into Monday, with highest chances of that from Southern Tier to the Finger Lakes and probably more so for the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. In these spots, models and ensemble probability data suggest several inches of wet/sloppy snow could occur and it is here there is also higher signal for widespread moderate impacts on the latest Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (Prob WSSI).
Now even though lower elevations may not much as snow from this event compared to higher terrain (so long as the eastern trend holds), the commute on Monday morning looks difficult for all areas as rain changes to up to a few inches of slushy snow and temps will be at or just below freezing.

Steady system snow exits fairly quickly on Monday. Though there will be some scattered leftover lake effect snow, at this point it appears to be light as it will be held down by limited deep moisture and less low-level cyclonic flow as ridge slips in quickly late Monday into Monday night. Forecast soundings across the lakes Monday look quite mixed with inverted-V profile which usually is not that great for much lake effect. Does look like a seasonally cool day with a blustery NW wind.

Rest of long term looks changeable. Modest warm up on Tuesday with gusty WSW winds will be followed by cool down on Wednesday as a fairly sharp cold front drops across. Highest pops near the lakes for now but maybe a touch of light snow for all areas on Wednesday if this front ends up having a bit more punch than shown right now.
Another round of warm air advection starts up on Thursday.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A burst of snow associated with a warm front will continue to move from west to east today. This will lower vsby to 2SM or less at times across the eastern Lake Ontario region including KART, while the steadiest snows have ended across Western NY. There still will be lingering IFR/MVFR cigs and flurries/sprinkles in the wake of this warm front throughout the day.

Cloud cover will persist well into tonight, and CIGS will generally run MVFR in most areas, with some IFR still possible across higher terrain. Cigs should lift to VFR at most TAF sites late tonight as a weak surface ridge nudges into the area.

Outlook...
Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR. Breezy. Rain changing to rain/snow showers late.
Monday...MVFR. Breezy with a chance of snow showers.

MARINE
As a warm front lifts northward on today. Winds and waves will increase which will lead to a period of Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie from this morning into the early evening. Winds do not look as strong on Lake Ontario and the main flow will be directed offshore, so don't expect a need for a Small Craft Advisory on any Lake Ontario waters.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ040- 041.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 4 mi83 min SW 22G25 40°F 29.85
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 24 mi53 min 41°F 29.85
NREP1 27 mi113 min WSW 7G14
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 39 mi53 min WSW 11G12 40°F 42°F29.8534°F
EREP1 44 mi53 min W 13G19
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 48 mi53 min 39°F 29.83

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Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KDKK CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY/DUNKIRK,NY 6 sm29 minSW 1010 smOvercast41°F30°F65%29.87
KJHW CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY/JAMESTOWN,NY 20 sm26 minWSW 0810 smOvercast34°F28°F80%29.85

Wind History from DKK
(wind in knots)



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Buffalo, NY,



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