Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 8:16 PM   Moonset 5:27 AM

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LEZ040 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 638 Pm Edt Wed Apr 24 2024
Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Patchy drizzle early. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Thursday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south and increasing to 15 to 25 knots overnight. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less building to 1 to 3 feet. Saturday - South winds 15 to 25 knots. Showers during the day, then a chance of showers Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Sunday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less. Monday - South winds around 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.

LEZ005
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FXUS61 KBUF 242246 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 646 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
Lingering clouds and patchy drizzle will clear out from north to south this evening. An expansive area of Canadian high pressure will then assure us of fair, dry weather Thursday through Friday. While some showers will be likely this coming weekend, especially on Saturday, a good amount of dry time will be built in. Looking further down the road, we can look forward to a summer-like warm up Sunday and Monday with the mercury surging well into the 70s and even a few spots into the 80s.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Unseasonably Cold Tonight

Northerly upslope flow has slowed the progress of clearing, with clouds still dominating everywhere south of Lake Ontario. Meanwhile skies have cleared nicely east of Lake Ontario. Much drier air poised just north of Lake Ontario will advect south this evening and help to scour out the clouds, with clearing reaching the lake plains by mid evening, then the higher terrain of the Southern Tier by late evening and the early overnight. Some patchy drizzle will continue through mid evening, mainly across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes.

Center of expansive area of Canadian high pressure over the upper Great Lakes will expand southeast over the lower Great Lakes overnight into Thursday. This will set the stage for a very chilly latter April night, with cool airmass remaining in place Thursday.
The upside is that feature will provide dry weather, clearing skies tonight/abundant sunshine Thursday, and mainly light winds. Lows tonight will be mainly in the 20s away from the immediate lakeshores, and even some teens in the normal cold spots of the North Country. Despite plenty of strong April sunshine on Thursday, highs will only recover into the upper 40s to low 50s in most areas.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Surface high pressure will remain camped over our region Thursday night and Friday. Subsidence will limit cloud cover, and this lack of cloud cover and light winds, with a dry lower atmosphere will make for excellent radiational cooling conditions Thursday night, with lows near freezing along the lakeshore, to lower 20s inland.

A warm front will near our region Friday night with increasing clouds and rain showers reaching the western Southern Tier late.
Ahead of the rain, southeast downslope winds could reach 35 mph along the Lake Erie shoreline.

Warm front enters our region Saturday, and accompanied by a shortwave aloft a brief period of rain showers is expected. Basin average rainfall will be on the order of a tenth to a third of an inch. Some thunder may occur with limited MUCAPE values less than 500 J/KG, especially over Lake Erie and the Niagara Frontier.

A few showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm, may linger behind the front later Saturday and Saturday night with again limited instability. Mild Saturday night with lows in the lower 50s inland and east of Lake Ontario, to near 60 across the favorable downslope areas of WNY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Heading into the later half of the weekend and into the first half of the new work week, a ridge will lie across the Great Lakes, while a broad trough will span across the Rockies and Central Plains.
Additionally, a shortwave trough will will be in the midst of passing north into the ridge. This pattern will translate to an initial surface low (supported by the shortwave) to wash out across northern Quebec, meanwhile another surface low will develop across the northern Plains. These surface features combined with the building ridge aloft, will support the initial surface low's cold front to stall out just north of the area, supporting a brief glimpse at summer like conditions with temperatures warming up into the 70s and afternoon diurnally driven convection. Expect similar such conditions, though a few degrees warmer to prevail through Monday as the second surface low traverses northeast across Lake Superior.

As the surface low marches toward Quebec Monday night through Tuesday, its attendant surface cold front will approach the region from the west and then cross from west to east. Initially expect some thunderstorms ahead of the front's arrival Monday night and then rain showers with the front's passage Tuesday. Additionally with the front's passage Tuesday, expect temperatures to be cooler than Sunday and Monday with highs ranging in the upper 60s to low 70s, though still well above average for the end of April.

A secondary cold front will then cross the area from north to south Wednesday supporting a small chance for a few rain showers.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Northerly upslope flow behind a departing cold front will continue to produce an expansive area of stratus across Western and Central NY into this evening, with CIGS improving to VFR on the lake plains.
Areas of MVFR/IFR CIGS will continue across higher terrain through mid to late evening before scattering out to VFR around midnight.
After that, VFR will prevail overnight through Thursday as high pressure builds across the area with clear skies.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR.
Saturday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely, with a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers.

MARINE
Northerly winds will continue to diminish overnight, with choppy conditions on both lakes gradually improving.

Expansive high pressure centered over the upper Great Lakes this evening will then gradually build across the lower Great Lakes overnight and Thursday. This will significantly lower winds and waves tonight. Local lake breeze circulations will develop Thursday, with onshore winds along all the Great Lakes shorelines in the afternoon. Northeast winds may continue to run 10-14 knots on Lake Erie with some chop Thursday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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