Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Apple River, IL
April 27, 2024 6:18 AM CDT (11:18 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:56 AM Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 11:23 PM Moonset 6:50 AM |
Area Discussion for - Quad Cities, IA/IL
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FXUS63 KDVN 271023 AFDDVN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 523 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
Updated for 12z Aviation
KEY MESSAGES
- Active period ahead by this evening through Sunday with several rounds of showers/storms.
- Flash Flooding remains a concern for areas that receive repeated rounds of thunderstorms tonight/Sunday with the potential for areas of 2-4 inches of rain. Confidence however, remains low on the placement of the heaviest rainfall.
- Severe weather is also possible, particularly by this evening, but also into Sunday although prior convection may have an impact on the magnitude/timing/location of severe weather Sunday PM.
- Unsettled weather continues through next week, with periodic rain chances.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
Latest surface analysis places a 994 mb low into SW Minnesota with a cold front trailing through the Missouri River valley while a warm front extends eastward from the low near the Wisconsin/Illinois state line. Low level water vapor imagery shows the shortwave aiding the outbreak of tornadoes yesterday across portions of Nebraska through central Iowa lifting northward into Minnesota. Last bit of glancing vorticity advection was pulling away leading to a marked decrease in precipitation into portions of NE Iowa. Meanwhile, a low amplitude perturbation on it's southern flank and a nocturnal LLJ and attendant isentropic ascent was aiding a few storms into portions of north central Illinois.
Overall, anticipate a general lull in precipitation through the first half of today with a waning LLJ, and as weak mid level height rises develop over the region in the wake of the departing shortwave and ahead of a secondary upper level low emerging from the Four Corners.
Sun peaks/breaks and a SSW wind gusty at times will promote deeper mixing into 850 hPa temps of 13c to 15c, which will lead to highs from the mid 70s to lower 80s and a summer-like feel aided by surface dew points in the lower to mid 60s. Winds could be near advisory criteria for a period of time with gust 35 to 45 mph at times this morning through midday mixing into the near 35-40 kts of wind around 900 hPa.
This afternoon, the cold front will stall in/near our northwest cwa as it becomes nearly parallel to the mid level flow. Proxy model soundings would support a weakening of a capping inversion in place as temperatures breach the mid/upper 70s. As a result, we could see widely scattered storms develop early to mid PM (1-3 PM) particularly across our north/northwest service area in closer proximity to the boundary and right entrance region of a 70+ kt 700 hPa jet streak. Deep layer shear 0-6km of 40+ kt and MLCAPE 1000-1500+ j/kg would support potential for Supercells initially but proxy soundings show evolving to more linear hodographs to where we could see splitting and possibly evolution to multicells.
Main threats would appear to be large hail and damaging wind gusts.
Anticipate an burgeoning of storms this evening, with an increasing nocturnal LLJ attendant to a lead shortwave ejecting out ahead of the upper low emerging along the front range. These will have mainly a large hail and damaging wind threat. The tornado threat would appear low this evening with largely veered low level flow, but it can't be totally ruled out if low level winds were to back more than forecast or given any storm scale interaction with boundaries, etc.
The severe threat may largely wane by late evening/overnight and transition more to heavy rain and a local flash flood threat, as the LLJ continues to foster bouts of showers and storms. PWATs surge again to around 1.5 inches and flow parallel to the boundary may lead to repetitive convection and enhanced areas of 2-4+ inches of rain. Confidence on just where this axis of heavier rain sets up is low, but it could be more of a concern if it occurs across our south which some areas saw over 1 to 1.5+ inches of rain in the past 18 hours.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
Sunday has the potential to be active again with a severe weather threat, as the Rockies shortwave ejects in negative tilt fashion across the Upper Midwest through 12z Monday. The lingering precipitation may play a pivotal role in the extent of destabilization and subsequent magnitude/location/timing of the severe weather risk.
That said, in general later Sunday afternoon and evening would appear the most favored window attendant for any severe storms tied to the arrival of the synoptic scale ascent. Effective shear of 35- 40 kts would support organized convection capable of producing severe weather. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main concerns, but a tornado threat cannot be ruled out with increasing low level shear. The 2-6 km flow becomes nearly parallel to the cold front, which may lead to a transition from semi discrete to more of a linear mode.
In the wake of the cold front, the start of next week looks to be quieter and drier. However, there's signs that an active pattern will return mid to late next week with the flow becoming semi-zonal shuttling impulses across the Midwest from the Pacific along a meandering mid level baroclinic zone.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 520 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
MVFR to VFR ceilings and gusty SSW winds to 35+ kts will be found this morning.
Showers and storms are anticipated this afternoon, but initial coverage is somewhat uncertain given a lack of substantial trigger. However, by this evening showers and storms are expected to increase in coverage warranting TEMPO to prevailing mention. Storms will be capable of producing hail, gusty winds and heavy rainfall, which may result in periods of IFR conditions. SSW winds will remain gusty to 35 kts through the afternoon, but then diminish some tonight although they will be variable and gusty in/near storms.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 523 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
Updated for 12z Aviation
KEY MESSAGES
- Active period ahead by this evening through Sunday with several rounds of showers/storms.
- Flash Flooding remains a concern for areas that receive repeated rounds of thunderstorms tonight/Sunday with the potential for areas of 2-4 inches of rain. Confidence however, remains low on the placement of the heaviest rainfall.
- Severe weather is also possible, particularly by this evening, but also into Sunday although prior convection may have an impact on the magnitude/timing/location of severe weather Sunday PM.
- Unsettled weather continues through next week, with periodic rain chances.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
Latest surface analysis places a 994 mb low into SW Minnesota with a cold front trailing through the Missouri River valley while a warm front extends eastward from the low near the Wisconsin/Illinois state line. Low level water vapor imagery shows the shortwave aiding the outbreak of tornadoes yesterday across portions of Nebraska through central Iowa lifting northward into Minnesota. Last bit of glancing vorticity advection was pulling away leading to a marked decrease in precipitation into portions of NE Iowa. Meanwhile, a low amplitude perturbation on it's southern flank and a nocturnal LLJ and attendant isentropic ascent was aiding a few storms into portions of north central Illinois.
Overall, anticipate a general lull in precipitation through the first half of today with a waning LLJ, and as weak mid level height rises develop over the region in the wake of the departing shortwave and ahead of a secondary upper level low emerging from the Four Corners.
Sun peaks/breaks and a SSW wind gusty at times will promote deeper mixing into 850 hPa temps of 13c to 15c, which will lead to highs from the mid 70s to lower 80s and a summer-like feel aided by surface dew points in the lower to mid 60s. Winds could be near advisory criteria for a period of time with gust 35 to 45 mph at times this morning through midday mixing into the near 35-40 kts of wind around 900 hPa.
This afternoon, the cold front will stall in/near our northwest cwa as it becomes nearly parallel to the mid level flow. Proxy model soundings would support a weakening of a capping inversion in place as temperatures breach the mid/upper 70s. As a result, we could see widely scattered storms develop early to mid PM (1-3 PM) particularly across our north/northwest service area in closer proximity to the boundary and right entrance region of a 70+ kt 700 hPa jet streak. Deep layer shear 0-6km of 40+ kt and MLCAPE 1000-1500+ j/kg would support potential for Supercells initially but proxy soundings show evolving to more linear hodographs to where we could see splitting and possibly evolution to multicells.
Main threats would appear to be large hail and damaging wind gusts.
Anticipate an burgeoning of storms this evening, with an increasing nocturnal LLJ attendant to a lead shortwave ejecting out ahead of the upper low emerging along the front range. These will have mainly a large hail and damaging wind threat. The tornado threat would appear low this evening with largely veered low level flow, but it can't be totally ruled out if low level winds were to back more than forecast or given any storm scale interaction with boundaries, etc.
The severe threat may largely wane by late evening/overnight and transition more to heavy rain and a local flash flood threat, as the LLJ continues to foster bouts of showers and storms. PWATs surge again to around 1.5 inches and flow parallel to the boundary may lead to repetitive convection and enhanced areas of 2-4+ inches of rain. Confidence on just where this axis of heavier rain sets up is low, but it could be more of a concern if it occurs across our south which some areas saw over 1 to 1.5+ inches of rain in the past 18 hours.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
Sunday has the potential to be active again with a severe weather threat, as the Rockies shortwave ejects in negative tilt fashion across the Upper Midwest through 12z Monday. The lingering precipitation may play a pivotal role in the extent of destabilization and subsequent magnitude/location/timing of the severe weather risk.
That said, in general later Sunday afternoon and evening would appear the most favored window attendant for any severe storms tied to the arrival of the synoptic scale ascent. Effective shear of 35- 40 kts would support organized convection capable of producing severe weather. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main concerns, but a tornado threat cannot be ruled out with increasing low level shear. The 2-6 km flow becomes nearly parallel to the cold front, which may lead to a transition from semi discrete to more of a linear mode.
In the wake of the cold front, the start of next week looks to be quieter and drier. However, there's signs that an active pattern will return mid to late next week with the flow becoming semi-zonal shuttling impulses across the Midwest from the Pacific along a meandering mid level baroclinic zone.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 520 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
MVFR to VFR ceilings and gusty SSW winds to 35+ kts will be found this morning.
Showers and storms are anticipated this afternoon, but initial coverage is somewhat uncertain given a lack of substantial trigger. However, by this evening showers and storms are expected to increase in coverage warranting TEMPO to prevailing mention. Storms will be capable of producing hail, gusty winds and heavy rainfall, which may result in periods of IFR conditions. SSW winds will remain gusty to 35 kts through the afternoon, but then diminish some tonight although they will be variable and gusty in/near storms.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
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