Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Apple River, IL
November 30, 2023 11:57 AM CST (17:57 UTC)
Sunrise 7:05AM Sunset 4:29PM Moonrise 7:14PM Moonset 10:35AM
Area Discussion for - Quad Cities, IA/IL
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FXUS63 KDVN 301730 AFDDVN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1130 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
KEY MESSAGES
1) Dry conditions are expected through the evening hours before a system lifts northward into our area, bringing a wintry mix late tonight through Friday morning
2) We have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain potential, with the biggest impacts from this expected during the Friday morning commute
3) Another round of precipitation crosses the region Friday night, which will bring another chance of a light rain/snow mixture
4) Periodic low chances of precipitation will continue to be in the picture through mid-week next week, but conditions appear to be largely dry
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 406 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Conditions should continue to be dry across our area through this evening as we continue to remain between systems, with split jet stream flow aloft. There is currently an open-wave trough embedded with the southern stream wave, which will gradually translate northeastward towards our region. An attendant surface low will develop over the southern Great Plains and deepen, strengthening the system. We continue to be progged under the enhanced deformation zone, with a classic TROWAL signature that will advect higher theta- e air to our region. Precipitation will ramp up after midnight tonight as higher Pwat air on the order of 0.50 to 1.00 inch lifts northward. Considerable spread in the ensemble thermodynamic profiles has made it very difficult to pin down with this round of precipitation, as a wintry mix of rain, snow, and even some freezing rain will be possible. The latest HRRR ensemble p-types appear to have trended away from the freezing rain in favor for more of a rain/snow mixture, with a small window between midnight tonight and 6 AM for ice accumulation from freezing rain. Because of snow being more favored, we have boosted the snow accumulation totals, with a corridor of 1-2" for Friday morning. There is a bit more uncertainty on just how much icing there will be from the freezing rain, given significant spread in the GEFS, ECWMF and CMC ensembles. However, it appears very likely for at least a light glaze of ice, with some widespread ice amounts of a few hundredths and perhaps up to a tenth of an inch possible for isolated spots. Given the timing of this wintry mix coming before to around the Friday morning commute, we have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for portions of southeast and east-central Iowa, including Rock Island county in Illinois.
Slippery road conditions are expected within the advisory area for the Friday morning commute.
By Friday afternoon, the deformation zone associated with the mid- level trough will quickly shift off to the east, leading to a small respite from precipitation before another round of light precipitation moves in Friday night. More details about that can be found in the Long Term forecast section below.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 406 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
As mentioned above, another shortwave impulse will sweep across the area Friday night into Saturday morning, but it should be more moisture starved compared to the system for tonight. A dusting to a few tenths of an inch of snow will be possible with this trough, so not much impacts with this one. The rest of the day Saturday is looking dry, but cloudy, with temperatures warming to the upper 30s to lower 40s - just about seasonal for this time of the year.
Saturday night and Sunday morning could see yet another round of precipitation, with another round of rain/snow mixture possible.
Again, amounts and impacts appear to be minimal. A few additional quick rounds of precipitation is indicated in the global models for early next week, but the typical model differences exists, so uncertainty remains on the exact timing and spatial coverage.
Temperatures do appear to be remain seasonal, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s through Wednesday.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 522 AM CST THU Nov 30 2023
A storm system approaches the area tonight, bringing along quite the aviation mess through tonight and tomorrow. Currently, we are enjoying VFR conditions with scattered mid-high clouds. The main concern between 18-00z will be the shifting winds, as a weak cold front pushes through the area. Behind the boundary, winds will shift northerly, then northeasterly tonight. Winds can gust upwards to 20-25 KTs at times.
Unfortunately, the VFR conditions quickly come to an end tonight and into tomorrow morning. Between 00-06z, we will see the approach of the system, with widespread rain and cigs decreasing to 1000-3000 ft at BRL and MLI. Between 06-10z, we see cigs and vis significantly drop off at these locations, as heavier precipitation moves in. Currently, we are expecting cigs to drop to 500-1000ft, with vis between 2-5 SM. BRL is forecast to remain all rain, but there is a chance for a wintry mix at MLI.
Confidence remains low on this, with guidance trending warmer.
Although, we will have the potential for freezing rain and wet snow at MLI by 12z. These conditions will continue their northerly push, impacting CID and DBQ by 12-15z. The main difference with these locations is that we are expecting precipitation mainly in the form of snow. Uncertainty remains on how far north the precipitation shield stretches, which means DBQ can stay completely dry. Decided to stick with the forecast and leave snow at both locations. Areas that see snow have the potential to see 1-2". The freezing drizzle/rain threat is lower at these locations as well, but will be possible between 12-15z.
While vis is forecast to improve between 15-18z and beyond, the IFR to LIFR cigs will remain through much of the day tomorrow.
Along with that, a second round of light snow and rain will pass through after 21z tomorrow.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Friday for IAZ063>068-076>078-087-088.
IL...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Friday for ILZ015.
MO...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1130 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
KEY MESSAGES
1) Dry conditions are expected through the evening hours before a system lifts northward into our area, bringing a wintry mix late tonight through Friday morning
2) We have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain potential, with the biggest impacts from this expected during the Friday morning commute
3) Another round of precipitation crosses the region Friday night, which will bring another chance of a light rain/snow mixture
4) Periodic low chances of precipitation will continue to be in the picture through mid-week next week, but conditions appear to be largely dry
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 406 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Conditions should continue to be dry across our area through this evening as we continue to remain between systems, with split jet stream flow aloft. There is currently an open-wave trough embedded with the southern stream wave, which will gradually translate northeastward towards our region. An attendant surface low will develop over the southern Great Plains and deepen, strengthening the system. We continue to be progged under the enhanced deformation zone, with a classic TROWAL signature that will advect higher theta- e air to our region. Precipitation will ramp up after midnight tonight as higher Pwat air on the order of 0.50 to 1.00 inch lifts northward. Considerable spread in the ensemble thermodynamic profiles has made it very difficult to pin down with this round of precipitation, as a wintry mix of rain, snow, and even some freezing rain will be possible. The latest HRRR ensemble p-types appear to have trended away from the freezing rain in favor for more of a rain/snow mixture, with a small window between midnight tonight and 6 AM for ice accumulation from freezing rain. Because of snow being more favored, we have boosted the snow accumulation totals, with a corridor of 1-2" for Friday morning. There is a bit more uncertainty on just how much icing there will be from the freezing rain, given significant spread in the GEFS, ECWMF and CMC ensembles. However, it appears very likely for at least a light glaze of ice, with some widespread ice amounts of a few hundredths and perhaps up to a tenth of an inch possible for isolated spots. Given the timing of this wintry mix coming before to around the Friday morning commute, we have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for portions of southeast and east-central Iowa, including Rock Island county in Illinois.
Slippery road conditions are expected within the advisory area for the Friday morning commute.
By Friday afternoon, the deformation zone associated with the mid- level trough will quickly shift off to the east, leading to a small respite from precipitation before another round of light precipitation moves in Friday night. More details about that can be found in the Long Term forecast section below.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 406 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
As mentioned above, another shortwave impulse will sweep across the area Friday night into Saturday morning, but it should be more moisture starved compared to the system for tonight. A dusting to a few tenths of an inch of snow will be possible with this trough, so not much impacts with this one. The rest of the day Saturday is looking dry, but cloudy, with temperatures warming to the upper 30s to lower 40s - just about seasonal for this time of the year.
Saturday night and Sunday morning could see yet another round of precipitation, with another round of rain/snow mixture possible.
Again, amounts and impacts appear to be minimal. A few additional quick rounds of precipitation is indicated in the global models for early next week, but the typical model differences exists, so uncertainty remains on the exact timing and spatial coverage.
Temperatures do appear to be remain seasonal, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s through Wednesday.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 522 AM CST THU Nov 30 2023
A storm system approaches the area tonight, bringing along quite the aviation mess through tonight and tomorrow. Currently, we are enjoying VFR conditions with scattered mid-high clouds. The main concern between 18-00z will be the shifting winds, as a weak cold front pushes through the area. Behind the boundary, winds will shift northerly, then northeasterly tonight. Winds can gust upwards to 20-25 KTs at times.
Unfortunately, the VFR conditions quickly come to an end tonight and into tomorrow morning. Between 00-06z, we will see the approach of the system, with widespread rain and cigs decreasing to 1000-3000 ft at BRL and MLI. Between 06-10z, we see cigs and vis significantly drop off at these locations, as heavier precipitation moves in. Currently, we are expecting cigs to drop to 500-1000ft, with vis between 2-5 SM. BRL is forecast to remain all rain, but there is a chance for a wintry mix at MLI.
Confidence remains low on this, with guidance trending warmer.
Although, we will have the potential for freezing rain and wet snow at MLI by 12z. These conditions will continue their northerly push, impacting CID and DBQ by 12-15z. The main difference with these locations is that we are expecting precipitation mainly in the form of snow. Uncertainty remains on how far north the precipitation shield stretches, which means DBQ can stay completely dry. Decided to stick with the forecast and leave snow at both locations. Areas that see snow have the potential to see 1-2". The freezing drizzle/rain threat is lower at these locations as well, but will be possible between 12-15z.
While vis is forecast to improve between 15-18z and beyond, the IFR to LIFR cigs will remain through much of the day tomorrow.
Along with that, a second round of light snow and rain will pass through after 21z tomorrow.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Friday for IAZ063>068-076>078-087-088.
IL...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Friday for ILZ015.
MO...None.
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