SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Tonight, high pressure will remain just off to the east with dry conditions forecast. However, there is a moisture axis at 850mb across the western CWA which will nudge east into the MS Valley.
Showers and storms have been festering on the edge of this most of the day today. The HRRR has been hinting at some spotty showers developing during the middle of the night in the north and spread south into the CWA possibly lingering into mid morning. Confidence is low on this coming to fruition, so opted to introduce some higher, but silent POPs, as a place holder.
Lows will be 55 to 60 east and low to mid 60s west.

Saturday will be mostly dry as southerly winds develop on the back of the high bring increased humidity into the region. If showers were to develop overnight, they may linger into the day similar to today. Later on, some actual slight (20) rain chances nudge into the far south CWA for the late afternoon, as an upper level wave lifts across MO and IL. Highs will be in the mid and upper 80s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Saturday night through Monday, we will see two main rounds of higher precip chances. The first will be with the upper level wave late night Saturday into Sunday night with 40 to 60 percent chances Sunday afternoon focused across the east half. After a lull, a cold front will pass through bringing shower and storm chances (30-50) across the area late Sunday night into early Tuesday. Modest shear and instability will be present ahead of this frontal passage, so some storms may be strong to severe.
The SPC has a Marginal Risk, or level 1 of 5, for our far west and northwestern areas for Sunday night into early Monday morning.

Previous Discussion with some minor edits:

For Monday through the upcoming week, we will continue to have periodic chances of showers and storms as a large area of upper- level high pressure develops over the south-central CONUS, placing our region on the northern end of a large heat dome.
Zonal flow aloft will become established over our region, leading to a series of mid-level shortwaves to traverse the region. How this will evolve convectively is uncertain, given that the earlier rounds of storms will augment the environment to impact the latter rounds of storms. So, it's difficult to really pin down timing and spatial coverage of storms at this time.

Additionally, the temperature forecast will be highly dependent on the timing of these storms as convection during the daylight hours will help keep conditions cooler than what the NBM is suggesting. If storms don't develop during peak heating, high temperatures could reach the lower to middle 90s. With increased humidity, heat indices of 95 to 100, or more, are possible.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with light southeasterly winds. No sig wx is expected at this time.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.