Wednesday, January27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lynn, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 4:52PM Wednesday January 27, 2021 10:01 PM EST (03:01 UTC) Moonrise 4:36PMMoonset 7:29AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ230 Boston Harbor- 716 Pm Est Wed Jan 27 2021
.gale watch in effect from late Thursday night through Friday evening...
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of snow showers.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Freezing spray. A chance of snow showers.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Sat and Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of snow showers.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft, except 4 to 6 ft at the outer harbor entrance. A chance of rain and snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft, except 6 to 9 ft at the outer harbor entrance. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Est Wed Jan 27 2021
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low pressure develops along the carolina coast tonight and moves out to sea well south of new england Thursday. This will draw northwest gales across the waters Thursday night and Friday, as well as scattered snow showers and areas of freezing spray. High pressure builds over the waters with dry weather and diminishing wind for Saturday night and Sunday. For additional information on possible hazardous weather for the week ahead, please visit www.weather.gov/boston/ehwo.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lynn, MA
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location: 42.45, -70.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 280004 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 704 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. Northerly onshore flow will produce intermittent periods of light ocean-effect rain/snow showers through tomorrow afternoon. Most of this activity will take place over the Cape and Islands with more isolated activity along the east coast of MA. A surge of cold arctic air will bring the coldest temperatures of the year to southern New England by Friday morning with sub-zero wind chill temperatures likely. Cold will continue through Saturday with moderating conditions Sunday. There is the potential for a winter storm to affect the area Monday and Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/. 700 pm update .

radar showing light returns along and just east of the coast from Portland ME down to Cape Cod. Web cams and obs have indicated a little bit of light snow and rain associated with the radar signatures. Hi-res models show the development of a weak surface low overnight just offshore of Cape Ann. In association with that, a more consolidated area of light precipitation is expected to develop. So it appears to be a weak mesocale feature combining with instability over the "warmer" ocean waters to generate ocean enhanced precipitation. Models suggest this feature will be most organized late tonight thru mid-morning Thursday. A little discussion here in the office that we might see some 1" or so accumulations over the far eastern tip of Cape Ann by daybreak, per 12z HREF guidance and latest HRRR output. At this point I'm not going to make any substantial changes to the forecast which has 30-40% chance of snow showers across much of eastern MA down to the Cape and Islands for later tonight into Thursday. The forecast already has accumulations of 1-2" by tomorrow afternoon for parts of Cape Ann, and generally a dusting to 1" elsewhere.


430 PM Update .

Light ocean-effect rain/show showers continue over the Cape Cod and The Islands. Still expecting intermittent periods of scattered ocean-effect snow/rain showers through this evening and overnight mostly along the south shore/south coast/Cape/Islands. Low temps overnight fall into the low-mid 20s.

SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. * Ocean-effect showers continue through Thursday afternoon. * Skies gradually clear from west-east mid-late afternoon Thursday * Cold arctic air brings single digit temperatures and sub-zero wind chills Friday morning.

Northerly flow associated with an offshore low-pressure system will continue to produce light ocean-effect snow/rain showers along the east coast of MA and Cape Cod through tomorrow afternoon. As this system slowly moves offshore we'll begin to see clearing over southern New England late tomorrow afternoon.

As the offshore low moves further east over the Atlantic waters, strong CAA at 850 hPa will usher an Arctic air mass into southern New England Thursday night. This will strengthen the pressure gradient over the northeast and produce gusty northwesterly winds that will allow for wind chill temperatures well below 0. A wind chill advisory may be needed as some of the western zones could see wind chill temperatures as low as -15 F. At this time however, most locations are forecast to be above the -15F advisory threshold.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Friday Through Wednesday

Pretty active weather pattern through the period. 12z guidance in fairly decent agreement given the overall evolution of the upper air pattern this weekend and into the middle of next week. Given that relative agreement, relied heavily on the NBM (Nat'l Blend of Models) as a starting point, with some adjustments here and there. In general looking at a shot of pretty cold weather for Friday and Saturday as the flow turns directly out of the north. Cold upper trough lifts out Sunday, however a potent longwave trough develops across the eastern third of the country to start next week. Model guidance showing increasing potential of a fairly strong winter storm to impact the region. Let's break it down day by day below:

Friday: For most of southern New England it's going to be a downright cold and windy day. With -18 to -22C air at 925mb moving over the region, surface highs are going to be held generally in the teens. A few lucky areas near the coast and Cape and Islands will top out in the lower 20s. This is a good 15 to 20 degrees below normal. The cold air will promote excellent mixing to about 3000 ft. This will tap into 30-35kt winds and bring them down to the surface. Just what we need when it's cold . a lot of wind. Expect wind chills below zero much of the day. Wanted to also mention that we expect freezing spray to be an issue over the coastal waters. See the marine section for more details.

Probably the more meteorologically interesting feature that we will need to keep a close eye on is an inverted surface trough, extending outward from low pressure well to our east, that will swing from north to south just to the east of Cape Cod during the day. It's now getting into better "view" of the hi-res models, but since the global models have been showing the formation of this feature for days, that's a signal of it's intensity. NAM3km shows some very strong warm air advection and frontogenesis signatures at 850mb and to a slightly lesser extent at 700mb. At the same time, the deep and cold 500mb low center (w/temps about -38C) will move just off the coast. With all the cold air aloft and relatively warm ocean temperatures, this will also result in a very unstable low level lapse rate. Snow squall index values are pegged on the high end just off the coast. Expect that we will see a band of heavy snow showers and squalls just offshore with that surface trough and move fairly rapidly south during the afternoon. Big question is exactly how close it comes to the Cape and southeast MA. Think the bulk will be just east of the Outer Cape, but close enough that a period of moderate snow showers will occur. Looks to be primarily 16-21z timeframe that the event occurs. How strong the convective snow showers will get is a bit uncertain, but think a quick 1-2" in less than an hour is possible. Did bump PoPs up across the Cape. If the trough comes a little further west, 4-6" totals are not out of the question from P-Town down to Chatham. Stay tuned!

Friday Night: COLD! Still breezy. Lots of 0-10 degree lows, sub-zero in far western areas. Winds still gusting 10-15mph, so wind chills in most areas will be 0 to 10 below.

Saturday: Sunny and still cold, but not as bad as Friday. Highs generally in the 20s area wide.

Sunday: Still below normal temperatures, but moderating. Primary weather feature will be increasing clouds.

Monday/Tuesday: Longer range global model guidance suggesting a significant winter storm to impact the region. 12z runs of ECMWF, CMC and GFS all show a similar patter with a slow moving low pressure center developing off the mid-Atlantic coast and trekking northeastward. Typical nor'easter track. GFS and Canadian brings it just outside the 40n/70w "benchmark", while the ECMWF is just inside Obviously the details hinge on quite a few items. exact track, speed, intensity etc. But given the support by the ensembles as well, it appears as the region will be dealing with winter weather to start the week. Stuck with the NBM blend which suggests a rain-snow line somewhere across southeast MA, with the heaviest snows just northwest of that line. Deterministic models suggest QPF of 1-2" of liquid are possible, especially across SE MA. Certainly plausible given the slow motion of the storm and the deep trough tapping moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Bahamas. How much is rain vs snow, way too early to tell . but winter fans will likely embrace the snowfall opportunity and perhaps already salivating at the potential. As always, later forecasts will continue to fine tune details. We are still 5-6 days away -- a lot can change.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

00Z Update

Overall moderate confidence in the forecast.

Currently conditions ranging from VFR (primarily western areas) to MVFR across eastern areas, though pushing IFR across the Cape. Forecast concerns revolve around the development of snow showers along the east coast of MA. There is uncertainty into how organized the precipitation will be, though latest guidance suggests a period of light snow across northeast MA developing after 08z or so and lasting into mid-morning. This would primarily impact BOS, with lesser impacts at nearby airports such as BED and OWD. Additional scattered mainly snow showers (though perhaps mixed with rain across the Cape) will continue into the early afternoon for areas south of BOS, into the Cape and Islands. A mix of MVFR and IFR conditions will occur within the areas of precipitation.

Across western areas, VFR conditions are expected to predominate overnight and especially all day Thursday.

A cold front will be moving through the region later in the day. As this happens, surface winds will start to gust above 20 knots, and clearing conditions will develop from west to east.

KBOS TAF . Moderate confidence. Uncertainty in the visibility reductions due to expected light snow. Potential for less than 2sm visibilities between 11-15z, but confidence is too low at this point to add to the forecast.

KBDL TAF . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/ .

Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Friday: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Slight chance SHSN.

Friday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHSN.

Monday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SN, chance RA.

MARINE. * Gale Watches issued for all waters.

Intermittent periods of isolated to scattered rain showers will continue over the eastern waters overnight tonight. Winds will continue to prevail out of the north/northwest tomorrow.

By tomorrow night, a strengthening pressure gradient will result in gusty northwest winds over the coastal waters. Currently have a Gale Watch in effect that may be upgraded to a Gale Warning in the next forecast package. Additionally, a surge of cold arctic air in from the north will work in tandem with the gusty winds to create light to moderate freezing spray conditions. Currently have a freezing spray advisory in effect from Midnight Thursday through about 3PM Friday.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/ .

Thursday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Freezing spray, slight chance of snow showers. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Friday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft. Freezing spray, chance of snow showers. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Friday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft. Freezing spray, slight chance of snow showers. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Freezing spray. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of snow showers. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Rain likely, chance of snow. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Gale Watch from late Thursday night through Friday evening for ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256. Freezing Spray Advisory from 1 AM to 3 PM EST Friday for ANZ231>233-235-237-250-251-254>256.

SYNOPSIS . RM/Nash NEAR TERM . RM/Nash SHORT TERM . RM LONG TERM . Nash AVIATION . RM/Nash MARINE . RM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 17 mi21 min NNW 14 G 16 36°F 42°F1017.2 hPa33°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 21 mi57 min N 16 G 19 36°F 4 ft1015.4 hPa
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 40 mi61 min N 16 G 18 34°F 1016.6 hPa (+0.0)34°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 43 mi76 min NNW 1 33°F 1018 hPa33°F
44073 45 mi177 min N 16 G 19 37°F 42°F
CMLN3 45 mi177 min NW 12 31°F 39°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 46 mi21 min E 7.8 G 9.7 37°F 43°F1014.9 hPa35°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 48 mi35 min 41°F4 ft

Wind History for Providence, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA6 mi67 minNNW 510.00 miOvercast34°F29°F82%1017.5 hPa
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA9 mi68 minN 65.00 miFog/Mist33°F31°F92%1016.5 hPa
Laurence G Hanscom Field Airport, MA18 mi70 minWNW 410.00 miOvercast33°F29°F85%1018.9 hPa
East Milton, MA19 mi70 minNNW 8 mi31°F29°F92%1017.8 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA21 mi67 minN 710.00 miOvercast34°F29°F82%1017.9 hPa
Norwood, Norwood Memorial Airport, MA21 mi68 minNNW 310.00 miOvercast35°F30°F82%1017.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBOS

Wind History from BOS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7N7N7N7N9N10N11N9N9N8N8N8N8N8N6N5N7N7N6N4NW5NW7N6NW5
1 day agoNW8--NW6NW8N6NW7NW8NW10NW7N6N7N7NE8NE8NE8E8E7E8E7E7NE5N7N7N7
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Tide / Current Tables for Lynn Harbor, Massachusetts
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Lynn Harbor
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:55 AM EST     1.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:28 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:14 AM EST     9.73 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:36 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:34 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:52 PM EST     8.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.75.13.31.71.11.83.35.27.18.99.79.48.16.23.91.70.20.11.12.74.66.68.18.5

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Marblehead Channel
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:59 AM EST     -0.36 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:01 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:28 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:15 AM EST     0.40 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:56 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:13 PM EST     -0.42 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:35 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:50 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:31 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:45 PM EST     0.42 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:29 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.