Saturday, July4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lynn, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:10AMSunset 8:25PM Saturday July 4, 2020 8:49 AM EDT (12:49 UTC) Moonrise 8:16PMMoonset 4:26AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ230 Boston Harbor- 716 Am Edt Sat Jul 4 2020
Today..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E this afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog this morning.
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Scattered tstms with a chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Mon night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tue and Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wed and Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Edt Sat Jul 4 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres to build over the maritimes today, while weak low pres southeast of nantucket dissipates. High pres continues into Sunday, followed by a cold front later in the day. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lynn, MA
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location: 42.45, -70.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 041051 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 651 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. Morning cloudiness and cooler onshore flow will give way to clearing late morning/early afternoon for most except for Cape Cod. Low clouds and fog then build back westward tonight, while the interior stays mostly clear. Warm and humid conditions ahead of a cold front may produce scattered thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon north of the Massachusetts Turnpike. Weak high pressure follows Monday and will linger over parts of the region Tuesday. An approaching warm front Tuesday will bring a chance of showers/thunderstorms in CT and Western MA. Hot and humid conditions move in for the middle and end of next week with scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

650 AM Update .

Still lots of clouds at 650 AM but satellite images show breaks over the Berkshires and over parts of SW and Central Connecticut. Expect that as the sun angle rises these clouds will thin out.

Winds remain out of the north. But as Nova Scotia high pressure builds southwest expect the winds will turn more from the northeast . even east along the coast.

No changes planned for the forecast.

Previous Discussion .

Good morning and Happy Fourth of July from the staff at NWS Boston/Norton!

Most of Southern New England remains blanketed under low overcast stratus early this morning, with mist or light fog near the eastern and southeast coasts. Synoptically, a surface ridge/wedge of high pressure covers most of the region from a weak high pressure over northeast ME, while an inverted surface trough axis lies just offshore of the Outer Cape upon which scattered light showers have focused in the outer waters. Gradient between the two surface features leads to slightly stronger onshore N/NE winds near the coast, with lighter northerly winds as one moves into the interior. Fog in eastern are southeastern areas are not likely to drop below 3/4 mile visibility given the stronger northerly winds and shouldn't pose a significant impact to any morning Fourth of July travel.

For today the forecast challenge is on timing improvement in lifting of the lower clouds/stratus and its effect on temperatures. Clouds are expected to lift/scatter out earliest in western MA/CT, and toward late-morning to early afternoon across Worcester and Middlesex Counties in MA, eastern CT and most of RI. Though most of the North Shore, the Boston area and adjacent suburbs and into southeast MA should also scatter out from stratus, it may not do so until mid to late afternoon. Short-term guidance now leaves much of the eastern waters, Cape Cod and the Islands under scattered to overcast stratus for most of if not all day. With more sun/greater heating in the west, temperatures project the warmest here and there is enough, if weak, instability with some lift against the Berkshires that isolated garden variety showers or storms could pop up west of I-91. Many will stay dry and not a washout. Cooler temperatures east with continued easterly flow and longer stratus duration with low-mid 70s shown for east MA and the Cape, around the upper 70s to near 80 central MA into eastern CT/most of RI, and the mid 80s for western MA and the CT Valley.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/. Tonight:

High pressure will shift into the Maritimes early tonight. Model soundings and indications from higher-res guidance indicate that the area of stratus near or just east of Cape Cod will advect back westward near or just after midnight. Developing west to southwest flow in the interior will limit the western extent of the lower clouds and areas of coastal mist/fog and that should allow for better nocturnal cooling in the west. Thinking the western extent of the lower clouds won't make it much further than a rough Fitchburg- Worcester-Willimantic CT line, with better radiational cooling across western MA/CT.

Something to be monitored toward the pre-dawn hrs into early Sunday AM is a progged surface trough/convergence axis near or southeast of I-95, upon which most non-CAM guidance sources generate light showers in increasing moist southerly flow mainly south/east of I- 95. GFS is far more bullish than other guidance and could be overdone. Started to show slight to lower Chance PoPs by daybreak given some consistency in guidance, but confidence on this isn't high. Lows in the upper 50s to lower to mid 60s, generally coolest towards NW MA.

Sunday:

** Scattered Strong to Severe Storms Possible Late Afternoon **

While most are dry early on Sunday, some uncertainty on development and placement of any early-day showers near the South Coast/South Shore area into the mid-morning hours. We should see improvement and clearing both with regard to any showers and residual overnight stratus mid-morning. By early afternoon most areas are mostly sunny with strong heating, amid a northwest mid-level flow regime aloft.

Focus then shifts to the potential for afternoon thunderstorms, with somewhat greater chances in this morning's guidance compared to yesterday. However it's a weakly-forced environment, and as such there are several uncertainties and unresolved questions. Northwest flow aloft looks to advect a plume of 700-500 mb lapse rates around 6.5 to near 7 C/km into parts of New England. With strong heating (dry- adiabatic low- level lapse rates) and temps likely to reach the mid to upper 80s in the interior, moderately strong instability values are generated by the NAM and the HREF with surface-based CAPEs between 1500-2500 J/kg. Values that high do seem reasonable, and with mid-level winds increasing in the NW flow it leads to effective bulk shear values around 30-35 kt, greatest generally north. Given that shear and instability parameter space, any storm that were to form in that environment would have potential to become strong to locally severe quickly. To that end, the 00z HREF reflects this potential with a few pixels of 2-5 km updraft helicities > 75 units from the I-84 corridor into I-495/I-95 into coastal NH/ME. Now the uncertainties: some guidance offer a 500 mb vort max that could spark convection, but vary on timing and strength. Also, surface winds veer to largely west flow that could make it difficult to focus convection, though strong convective outflows could be such a source given the steep low- level lapse rates. And finally, there is some element of capping and mid-level dry air especially south and west that could put a lid on any development. Most of the CAMs simulate the greatest convective coverage in northern and eastern New England progressing SE. I could see scattered storms (again some strong, potentially severe) at least from a Fitchburg to Boston line northward, but could extend as far south as an Orange-Worcester- Providence- Plymouth line where the southern extent of mentionable PoPs between 18-00z were drawn. Gusty to strong winds and hail both would be the primary convective threats if storms can form. SPC has raised the severe convective risk to Marginal/5% across most of our northern, central and eastern counties. Will need to keep close watch on this potential.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. Big Picture .

Trough moves through the Northeast USA Sunday night, then off to the east on Monday. The upper flow then becomes zonal across the USA Northern Tier. Several shortwaves move through this zonal flow.

Contours at 500-mb start the week at seasonal normals, then increase Tuesday through Friday. Thermal fields show a similar rise. Expect temperatures near normal at the start of next week, then trending to above normal levels mid to late week.

Model mass fields show good agreement through Thursday morning, then diverge. Moderate confidence in the forecast.

Daily details .

Sunday night and Monday .

Upper trough sweeping southeast from Quebec is associated with a cold front also sweeping southeast. This front moves across Southern New England during the night. CAPE values show 1000-1500 J/Kg along and leading the front. PW values are forecast at 1.25 to 1.5 inches . above average but not excessive. Placement of the associated upper jet would place the left exit region over Eastern MA. Expect chance of showers/tstms, mainly over that area as the front moves through. Then clearing skies overnight.

Shortwave upper ridge moves across from the Great Lakes Monday. This will also draw part of the surface ridge from the Canadian Maritimes west over Southern New England. This subsidence suggests a mainly dry day . although can not rule out an isolated shower over the Berkshires Monday afternoon.

Dew points in the low to mid 60s will support Sunday night min temps in the 60s. Mixing to 850 mb will tap 12-14C temps aloft, supporting max sfc temps in the low to mid 80s. A northeast to east wind will bring cooler temps to eastern MA, where max temps will be more like 75 to 80.

Monday night and Tuesday .

High pressure remains in place Monday night, bringing light wind and dry weather. Dew points mid 50s to lower 60s will support min temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

The ridge moves off to the east on Tuesday. A warm front approaching from the west will bring clouds and a chance of an afternoon shower/thunderstorm to Western MA and Hartford Co CT. Light flow will again encourage sea breeze winds at the coast. Temperatures will be similar to Monday.

Wednesday through Friday .

With the warm front through, warmer more humid air returns to Srn New England. CAPE values of 1000-2000 J/Kg will spread across much of Srn New England, and a weak shortwave will move in during the afternoon. Expect scattered showers/thunderstorms to be possible in most of the forecast area. PW values will increase to 1.75 to 2.0 inches, high enough to expect local downpours with any convection. A southwest wind will mean warmer temperatures . and 16-17C aloft supports max sfc temps of 85 to 90. Dew points 68 to 70 will mean high humidity with heat index in the low to mid 90s.

Thursday will feature another weak shortwave moving past, as well as 1000-2000 J/KG available to be tapped. Expect another afternoon of scattered showers/thunderstorms and local downpours. Temps aloft around 18C suggest sfc temps in the low 90s. With continued high humidity, expect heat index in the mid 90s.

Upper ridge builds overhead Friday. This should maintain rain-free weather. Temps aloft at 18-20C support max sfc temps in the low to mid 90s. The heat index will be in the mid 90s.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Today: High confidence in trends, moderate on timing (especially east).

General west to east improvement in categories with improvement to VFR anticipated soonest BAF-BDL-CEF, ORH-BED-PVD-BOS trending VFR through the mid-morning to mid-afternoon. Degraded conditions due to BKN-OVC MVFR-IFR stratus now appear more probable to hold on across the Cape/ACK airports for most of the day. N winds to lighten and become E/ESE 4-8 kt, near 10 kt on the Cape and ACK.

Tonight: Moderate to high confidence.

High confidence in VFR conditions west of ORH. However, probable ongoing MVFR-IFR stratus and mist across the Cape and outer waters looks to advect back westward toward BOS-PVD-BED-ORH after 03z and continue through daybreak. Potential for showers/possible thunder SE of I-95 10-12z but confidence not high. E winds veer to SE and S 4-8 kt.

Sunday: Moderate confidence.

Continued MVFR-IFR near/east of ORH, with low-prob of showers/possible thunder SE of BOS-PVD/I-95. Improvement toward VFR mid-morning/early-afternoon. Thereafter, lowered confidence on location and timing of any possible TSRA in northwest flow aloft between 18-00z. Higher confidence on TSRA into NH. Best chance appears to be near or north of a FIT-BOS line, but may extend as far south as an ORE-ORH-PVD-PVC line. If storms develop, potential for any one to become strong with localized gusty winds and brief sub-VFR visby.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/ .

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA, patchy BR.

Monday: VFR.

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA, patchy BR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

MARINE.

Today through Sunday: High confidence.

Winds and seas to remain below SCA levels through Sunday. Low clouds and fog (visbys 1-3 miles) will continue to affect most waters today into tonight, with initial N winds decreasing in speed and becoming E later today, then becoming SE late tonight.

Southerly winds expected on Sunday. Potential exists for thunderstorms, some possibly strong, on the northern and eastern waters later Sunday afternoon though confidence on development is not high.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/ .

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Patchy fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . WTB/Loconto NEAR TERM . WTB/Loconto SHORT TERM . Loconto LONG TERM . WTB AVIATION . WTB/Loconto MARINE . WTB/Loconto


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 8 mi55 min 63°F 64°F1012.8 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 17 mi59 min N 12 G 14 62°F 65°F3 ft1012.3 hPa (+0.8)62°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 21 mi105 min NE 12 G 14 61°F 3 ft1011.4 hPa
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 40 mi49 min NNE 6 G 7 61°F 1013.1 hPa (+0.4)61°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 43 mi64 min NNE 1.9 65°F 1014 hPa62°F
44073 45 mi105 min NNE 7.8 G 9.7 63°F 61°F
CMLN3 45 mi165 min NW 19 60°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 46 mi59 min NNE 5.8 G 7.8 63°F 3 ft1012.9 hPa (+0.9)63°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 48 mi44 min 63°F3 ft

Wind History for Providence, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA6 mi55 minNNE 710.00 miOvercast63°F59°F87%1013.9 hPa
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA9 mi56 minNNE 510.00 miOvercast63°F60°F90%1012.9 hPa
Laurence G Hanscom Field Airport, MA18 mi58 minN 510.00 miOvercast63°F59°F87%1014.7 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA21 mi55 minNNE 310.00 miOvercast63°F60°F90%1014.4 hPa
Norwood, Norwood Memorial Airport, MA21 mi56 minN 310.00 miOvercast65°F60°F84%1013.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBOS

Wind History from BOS (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS6SE6SE7SE7SE7SE8SE10SE10SE7SE5SE3SW10W12
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SW7W8W6W8NW7NW5NW8N8N8NE15NE12
2 days agoE4E6E7E7E8E10E10E10E7SE5CalmE5S4S5SW5SW3N3S3S5SW3SW5CalmCalmS4

Tide / Current Tables for Lynn Harbor, Massachusetts
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Lynn Harbor
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:26 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:12 AM EDT     -0.86 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:30 AM EDT     9.36 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:20 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:39 PM EDT     10.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.18.25.72.80.3-0.8-0.413.25.789.29.28.26.341.70.40.62.14.26.89.210.7

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Marblehead Channel
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:42 AM EDT     -0.47 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:59 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:18 AM EDT     0.45 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 12:04 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:08 PM EDT     -0.42 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:16 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:36 PM EDT     0.46 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.300.30.40.40.40.20-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.10.20.40.50.50.3

Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.