Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ravena, NY

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Key Messages:

- Winter Weather Advisory for southern Adirondacks and portions of the Lake George Region until noon today for a light wintry mix including some freezing rain.

- High confidence for below normal temps Monday and Veterans Day, with lake effect snow across the western Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley late Mon night thru Tue.

Discussion:

As of 154 AM EST...A stationary front remains near the NY-PA border early this morning with a low pressure system moving out of the Ohio Valley towards PA and w-cntral NY. High pressure near southern Quebec continues to funnel south/southeast into upstate NY some shallow cold air. Over running pcpn and isentropic lift continues to increase over w-central NY into eastern NY with light rainfall developing this hour. Clouds continue to thicken and lower with temps cooling off into the lower to mid 30s over the southern Dacks and the Lake George Region. The southwest low-level jet will continue to increase advecting into the region low-level moisture for the coverage of rainfall to increase towards 12Z/Sun or daybreak. Due to wet bulb cooling, expect pcpn to begin as snow over the south/southwest Dacks, the Lake George Region and possibly the southern Greens. A rapid transition to some sleet and some freezing rain looks to occur based on some of the CAMs and the HRRRs. The freezing rain does not look like it will last long.
We kept the current advisory up. We may have to issue an SPS for a brief period of freezing rain for portions of northwest Saratoga Co, and the southern Greens before temps rise above freezing. Snow and sleet accums will be an inch or less with a light glaze or less than a tenth of an inch of ice in the Advisory area.

The warm front will break through portions of the Mohawk Valley and the Greater Capital Region and western MA/southern VT, as low pressure approaches w-cntral PA and central NY. Max temps will get into the upper 40s to mid and spotty upper 50s in the valleys with some cooler readings in the upper 30s to mid 40s over the Adirondack Park, Lake George Region and the southern Greens. A brief respite in the showers will occur with the dry slot before a narrow cold frontal rain band ahead of the low pressure approaches from the west/southwest 22Z/Sun to 04Z/Mon.
Not much instability is shown on the CAMs, such as the 3-km HRRR and NAMnest but plenty of deep shear. Some gusty winds with a rumble of thunder may occur early this evening. The primary low moves over northern NY near Lake Champlain around midnight, as a secondary low begins to form south of Long Island. Colder air begins to drain back into the southwest Adirondacks early Monday morning for a light wintry mix to snow. Temps will be tumbling in the wake of the cold front into the mid/upper 20s to mid 30s over the southern Dacks/western Mohawk Valley/Lake George-Glens Falls area and upper 30s to lower/mid 40s south and east.

The secondary low moves quickly towards southeast New England, as periods of rain begin to develop again from the Hudson River Valley eastward. Enough cold air drains into the system for a mixture of rain and snow showers west of the Hudson River Valley.
The steadiest pcpn looks to align from the I-87 corridor eastward with the H500 upper low moving over the lower Great Lakes Region/western NY and PA. The colder air looks to spread eastward over the forecast area into the mid to late afternoon with falling temps and for some snow showers over the western New England higher terrain possibly mixed with sleet. Snow accums during the day may be up to an inch over the western Dacks. Low pressure moves toward northeast ME and New Brunswick Mon night with cold and brisk conditions. Some lake effect and west/northwest upslope snow showers develop overnight. Lows fall back into the 20s with some teens over the higher terrain.

Veterans Day look like a winter day with blustery and cold conditions with lake effect snow showers continuing off Lake Ontario. H850 temps will be a few standard deviations below normal based on the NAEFS/GEFS. West to northwest winds will be 10-20 mph with some gusts 25-35 mph. We used the 75th percentile of the NBM winds and the strong sfc pressure gradient supported it. Snow accumulations may range from 1-3" for the western Dacks. Highs will be 10-15 degrees below normal. We shaded to the colder MAV/MET values from the NBM. Highs will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s. The low max record for Albany is 31F set back in 1987. It does not look that cold, but the high may only get to 37F at Albany. Expect mid 20s to lower/mid 30s over the high terrain. Wind chills or "Feels-like" temps will be in the teens and 20s with some single digits over the mtns. The low to mid level flow backs Tue night ahead of the next short- wave approaching from the Great Lakes Region. Some snow showers and flurries will persist with some accums of an inch or two over the west/southwest Dacks and the southern Greens. Some coatings to a few tenths may occur in the lower elevations. Lows will be in the 20s to lower 30s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Key Message:

- Below normal temperatures will continue through the remainder of the week along with some mixed rain and snow showers.

We will remain under an upper level trough pattern through the remainder of the week with multiple additional shortwaves passing through the area. Following a cold Veteran's Day, the air mass will begin to moderate by Wednesday with daytime temperatures in the 30s and 40s each day through the end of the week, still about 5-10 degrees below normal. As westerly flow continues over the Great Lakes, lake effect rain and snow showers will continue Wednesday into Friday with the greatest coverage across the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley. Snow showers will be primarily favored across the higher elevations. The trough begins to depart by Saturday with high pressure building into the area with a drier start to the weekend.
High temperatures on Saturday will continue to run below normal with values in the 30s and 40s.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 06z/Mon...VFR conditions will start the TAF period, but conditions should gradually lower to MVFR at most sites prior to 12z/Sun as a low pressure system approaches with some rain showers and lower cigs. It is possible cigs may lower into the IFR range by around 12z/Sun, mainly at KALB/KGFL, and have been introduced with a TEMPO. Showers will begin to lift northward and out of the TAF sites between 12-18z/Sun, though cigs may remain mostly MVFR through the rest of the day. Will monitor trends prior to the next TAF issuance if any IFR cigs develop, which may linger into Sunday as well. After 00z/Mon, additional rain showers are possible with cigs remaining in the MVFR or even IFR range. Winds will be less than 10 kt through the TAF period and could be in variable directions, though mainly from the northerly to easterly direction. A period of LLWS could occur at KPSF Sunday afternoon into the early evening as winds at 2000 feet increase to 35 kt out of the southeast with surface winds only around 5 kt.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
SHSN.
Veterans Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. Chance of SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for NYZ032-033- 042-043-082.
MA...None.
VT...None.