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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 452 Pm Est Tue Dec 5 2023
Tonight..North winds 10 knots or less increasing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers this evening, then snow showers likely after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less building to 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. A chance of snow overnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Snow likely in the morning, then rain and snow likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of rain in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of rain Saturday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 8 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 060226 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 926 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

SYNOPSIS
A weak clipper system moves through tonight bringing widespread light snow though accumulations are expected to be less than an inch. Temperatures slowly warm through the rest of the week with a stronger storm impacting the region this weekend with the potential for strong winds and rain.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
915 PM update...

Some minor changes were made to PoPs with this update. Scattered snow showers are being observed across the region. Some areas are seeing high enough snowfall rates to reduce visibilities down to a few miles. Re-evaluating snowfall totals, there were some minor changes made to these as well. While snowfall totals will generally be light, some localized totals may near an inch.

530 PM update...

Seeing that snow has moved in quicker than originally forecasted, PoPs were updated. The RAP looked best compared to radar, so that was blended in with the NBM and previous forecast.
Light snow showers to flurries are expected this evening with not much accumulation. Snow will accumulate tonight with most under a half of an inch, though localized amounts of around a half inch will be possible. Snow totals were bumped up just slightly given the earlier arrival of the snow showers. Other than PoPs and snow totals, the forecast was doing well and needed no change.

215 PM update...

A few snow showers are persisting along the NY thruway early this afternoon but as a warm front lifts in ahead of an approaching shortwave, the snow showers will come to an end.
Radar across Ohio into western PA has filled in with light precipitation associated with the shortwave and water vapor imagery shows the trough digging slightly. Chances of snow showers were increased area wide for tonight as forcing looks slightly better to get widespread snow. Forecast soundings are showing the best lift outside of the dendritic growth zone so snowfall rates likely will be light with accumulations expected to be an inch or less for most of the region with isolated areas in the Finger Lakes possibly seeing up to 2 inches.

Once the shortwave is east of the region tomorrow, cold air advection drops 850 mb temperatures down to near -10C so lake effect snow develops. Wind through the boundary layer will be light and out of the NW at about 320 to 330 degrees. Some organization to the lake effect bands are possible but with a short lake fetch the intensity of the bands will be a little lighter. Flow aloft becomes Northwesterly Wednesday night with some lake effect showers likely continuing across the Finger Lakes. Another shortwave begins to drop into the Great Lakes region late Wednesday night with the potential for more light snow headed into Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
310 PM Update...

Light snow is expected Thursday, followed by quiet conditions the rest of the period.

A warm front will push northward across the area on Thursday and weak isentropic lift should be enough to produce some widespread light snow. Up to an inch of snow will be possible, but this will be dependent on afternoon temperatures Thursday. The snow could mix with rain in the afternoon, especially in the valleys as surface temperatures rise into the upper 30s. However, wet bulbing could keep precipitation falling as snow, but little to no accumulation is expected in the valleys. Snow will end Thursday evening from west to east as the warm front passes.

Ridging builds in overnight Thursday and Friday with warm southwest low level flow bringing warmer air into the area. This period will be warm and dry, with high temperatures Friday in the mid to upper 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
325 PM Update...

Heavy rain and strong winds will likely impact the region Sunday into Monday.

Very warm and above average temperatures are expected this weekend. A broad ridge will be in place over the Eastern U.S and temperatures will likely climb well into the 50s Saturday and again on Sunday.

However, deep SW return flow will start pumping moisture into the area ahead of a deepening upper trough across the Central U.S. That trough will turn negatively tilted and an intense surface low will track northeast across the Great Lakes on Sunday. Euro ensembles are indicating anomalous PWs of 3 to 4 standard deviations and an intense LLJ of 60+ knots. Winds will increase to 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph Sunday to Monday. Slow moving cold front pushes in by midday Sunday and heavy rainfall will be widespread across the region. Some hydro issues will be possible, but being that this is still 5 to 6 days out, this is just something to monitor at this time.
Localized rainfall amounts of 2+ inches will be possible with this system.

Heavy rain will push east of the area by early Monday morning, but we will remain under the upper level trough on Monday. Low level flow out of the west and T850 dropping to around -10C, means conditions will be favorable for some sort of lake effect snow, however, way too early at this time to know how this will unfold.

AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
18Z Update...
Light snow showers are increasing across the area, with a wide range in visibilities between 2 and 10SM. Expect mainly MVFR/fuel alt conditions as the snow showers move through, with brief IFR mainly due to visibility restrictions.

Light snow will taper off in the morning, transitioning to light lake effect snow/flurries which will mainly impact SYR and possibly ITH. Elsewhere, MVFR ceilings will remain in place across central NY, with fuel alt ceiling restrictions at BGM.
Conditions should improve to VFR at AVP in the afternoon.

Outlook...

Late Wednesday night...Becoming mainly VFR,

Thursday...A weak clipper system may bring occasional restrictions in light rain or snow.

Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...Restrictions likely from rain and low ceilings as well as strong winds.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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