Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for St. Joseph, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 142 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2024

In the short term did kick low temperatures overnight and high temperatures today up a few degrees, which may still be a tad underdone, above guidance with increased WAA and increased moisture advection in place ahead of a southern stream disturbance that will move into the Ohio River Valley late tonight and a clipper system passing north into the Lake Superior region. Dew points will increase into the upper 30s to low 40s today. Forecasted highs today, most locations will see around the 50 degree mark with the higher temps in far southern portions of the CWA around the 55 degree mark. Winds will still be breezy at times but will generally be on the downward trend through today. Late today into Monday morning will see increased chances of drizzle and light rain showers with the incoming disturbances and the convergence between the southern stream and northern stream systems. Monday's highs will also be in the low 50s for most locations with the exception being in the upper 40s for southern MI counties, however will have to monitor how today plays out as further forecast temperature adjustments may be required for Monday as well, but sky cover could limit further warming.

A break in precipitation is still expected in the wake of these first system passages Monday night into Tuesday morning but another arctic low will drop southward out of Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes regions which will bring another taste of cold with temperatures dropping Tuesday as a cold front pushes through. This system will also bring another chance at precipitation which will likely start out as a mix on Tuesday night and switch over to all snow early Wednesday morning with lows that morning in the 20s. Colder air yet will push in by Wednesday evening with highs only in the mid to upper 20s on Wednesday and by Thursday morning will be in the teens to even the single digits for our southwestern portions of the CWA as further north there will be some moderation with lake temperatures still around 40 degrees. This will also allow for LES showers to also kick in late Wednesday through Thursday night for areas in close proximity and further eastward near the IN/MI border areas once again.

By Friday, a warming trend will arrive with shortwave ridging ahead of another southern stream disturbance moving through the Plains begins to move into the region which will allow highs on Friday into the 30s and then over the weekend highs will get into the 40s once again. A chance of rain showers will also accompany the disturbance next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1203 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2024

VFR conditions expected for most, if not all of the period. Low level flow will quickly relax overnight ending the risk of LLWS.
Low level moisture rapidly arrives after 00Z with some patchy drizzle and lowering cigs possibly bringing MVFR cigs/vsbys towards the end of the period. Have opted to lower cigs towards the end of the period, but keep just in VFR range with 12Z TAFs likely to introduce rapid drop into IFR.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for LMZ043-046.