Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Breedsville, MI

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 8:45PM Saturday August 17, 2019 1:14 PM EDT (17:14 UTC) Moonrise 9:08PMMoonset 7:42AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 1105 Am Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Rest of today..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots veering west 5 to 10 knots toward daybreak. Partly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday..Southeast winds around 5 knots veering southwest. Mostly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves less than 1 foot.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
LMZ845 Expires:201908172100;;780233 FZUS53 KGRR 171505 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1105 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ845-172100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Breedsville, MI
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location: 42.46, -86.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 171436
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
1036 am edt Sat aug 17 2019
latest update...

update

Synopsis
Issued at 340 am edt Sat aug 17 2019
- multiple chances for thunderstorms exist through Sunday mainly
along and south of i-96. Strong storms are possible, but not a
slam dunk.

- dangerous swimming conditions are possible Sunday.

- a quiet start to the workweek is expected with cooler
temperatures prevailing into the weekend.

Update
Issued at 1036 am edt Sat aug 17 2019
--thunderstorms south of i-96 this afternoon--
the forecast now features strong and possibly severe thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening around the i-94 corridor, primarily
affecting the kalamazoo, battle creek, and jackson areas. Some of
this activity could make a run north towards i-96 but any such
storms would not be as strong. Lightning, large hail and damaging
winds are the main threats.

Forecast reasoning: both recent hrrr runs and radar trends show
increasing chances for MCV induced thunderstorms spreading
northeast into our southeastern zones. Strongest MCV forcing and
thunderstorms are over eastern il and moving east, but we are
already seeing some discrete cells developing over NW indiana
along an east-west instability axis that may be getting a
frontogenetic boost from deformation aloft. SPC mesoanalysis
graphics shows a sharp e-w axis of impressive CAPE in the hail
growth zone (greater than 600 j kg) combined with sufficient deep
layer shear (0-6km bulk values of 30-40 kt) to support discrete
supercells. This east-west axis is currently positioned just
south of the forecast area, but trends show it drifting north this
afternoon. The main times of concern for thunderstorms would be
after 3 pm but lasting well into this evening.

Discussion (today through next Friday)
issued at 340 am edt Sat aug 17 2019
the main forecast concern is the potential for several rounds of
thunderstorms over the next 24-48 hours favoring areas south of i-
96, though most activity may hinge on nebulous forcing provided by
mvcs traversing in zonal low- to mid-level flow. Hence, confidence
is overall lower than average.

The first MCV will originate from ongoing widespread (severe)
convection across kansas and western missouri this morning. The 00z
suite of cams suggest the MCV will ride along a northward-drifting
warm front currently located along i-80 with renewed convective
development into lower michigan during the afternoon hours (mainly
after 21z 4pm). While forecast instability looks meager due to weak
lapse rates, forecast shear profiles (enhanced by the MCV itself)
suggest modest storm organization would still be attainable. Anytime
an MCV tracks along a warm front, there's always concern for
localized severe weather and indeed the SPC day 1 marginal risk just
clips lower michigan, mainly along and south of i-94.

A stray shower or storm will remain possible along the warm front
tonight (much like what we're watching across the chicago area as of
this writing but not as strong), but most of the area should
remain dry. Patchy fog will be possible especially toward sunrise
Sunday with just enough low-level winds perhaps encouraging a low-
level stratus deck over widespread dense fog.

Expected widespread convection across parts of the plains this
afternoon and evening will likely spit out yet another MCV our way
(if not a convective complex) Sunday morning as an upper-level
trough approaches from the west. The warm front should slowly lift
northward ahead of the MCV which may allow for the maintenance of
what's left of the convection as it passes through lower
michigan. At this point there's a signal the MCV may arrive a bit
too early to take advantage of the upper-level support which will
push through later in the day. Unfortunately this casts
uncertainty with potential renewed convective development during
the afternoon hours associated with the upper-level trough.

Forecast shear and thermodynamic profiles would certainly support
strong to severe convection, though such a threat may end up south
and east of lower michigan where the influence of early-day
convection would be less. The SPC day 2 marginal risk is fair
given the aforementioned uncertainties.

Deterministic and ensemble model guidance suggests continued zonal
flow into the early portion of next week with a frontal passage
sometime mid-week. Ensemble model guidance is honing in on yet
another period of below-normal temperatures into the weekend as
persistent troughing becomes established across the eastern united
states. Time will tell of such a regime occurs (but we won't
complain).

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 735 am edt Sat aug 17 2019
as expected, the TAF sites along the i-94 corridor (jxn btl azo)
have seen patchy fog take cig vis down to lifr at times. This
should only last another hour or so before the Sun starts to warm
temperatures for the day. Winds will be generally light from the
southwest throughout the TAF period. Mid-level clouds start to
increase this afternoon as showers and a few thunderstorms start
to bubble up across the area. Right now it looks like most of this
shower activity will be confined along and south of the i-96
corridor. Thus, we have only mentioned vicinity thunderstorms for
the jxn btl azo sites for this afternoon. Once diurnal
shower storm activity diminishes this evening, the threat for fog
will creep back into the area for Sunday morning. There is still
quite a bit of uncertainty over how widespread the fog will
become early Sunday morning. The inversion should be
strengthening, but at the same time residual cloud cover might
inhibit temperatures from cooling down as much. Thus, for now have
only mentioned vicinity fog in the tafs, but this will need to be
revisited as guidance comes into better agreement today.

Marine
Issued at 340 am edt Sat aug 17 2019
we are concerned about wind and waves Sunday. South southwest
winds and waves will increase during the afternoon hours raising
the concern of longshore currents and waves topping piers given
the high water levels. Waves look to top off somewhere in the 3-5
ft range, which is right in the dangerous zone where swimmers may
not realize how big the waves really area. As such, beach hazard
statements may be needed for Sunday. Otherwise, we'll let the day
shift take one more look before issuing any products, but beach
hazards statements are possible. Calmer conditions are expected
to start the workweek.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Tjt
synopsis... Borchardt
discussion... Borchardt
aviation... Amd
marine... Tjt borchardt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 9 mi45 min SW 1.9 G 1.9 75°F
45168 12 mi35 min W 1.9 G 1.9 75°F 74°F1 ft1013.7 hPa63°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 22 mi57 min S 1.9 G 2.9 72°F 1013.1 hPa69°F
45029 31 mi35 min SSW 1.9 G 1.9 72°F 65°F1 ft1013.1 hPa66°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 32 mi75 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 79°F 1014.9 hPa (+0.0)
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 42 mi35 min SW 1.9 G 3.9 74°F 75°F1 ft1013.7 hPa67°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 54 mi35 min WNW 2.9 G 4.1 72°F 1012.9 hPa67°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI10 mi20 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F63°F58%1013.9 hPa
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI20 mi22 minW 710.00 miFair80°F62°F54%1013.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLWA

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Last 24hrSW9S8S6S6S4S7S6S3CalmS9S5CalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5W4Calm
1 day agoNW7NW9NW9
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NW8N5NW3CalmCalmCalmCalm----Calm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--SE3S6SW4
2 days agoE4W5N5N6N4SE3CalmCalmE5E4CalmCalmE3NE4NE3NE3NE5NE10NE6E5E8NE4NE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.