Saturday, April4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Breedsville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 8:15PM Saturday April 4, 2020 11:12 PM EDT (03:12 UTC) Moonrise 3:03PMMoonset 4:45AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 1109 Pm Edt Sat Apr 4 2020
Rest of tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots backing north. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots veering southeast toward daybreak. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves less than 1 foot.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
LMZ845 Expires:202004050915;;588074 FZUS53 KGRR 050309 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1109 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ845-050915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Breedsville, MI
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location: 42.46, -86.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 042328 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 728 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020

LATEST UPDATE . Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 327 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020

-Rain ends this evening, then gradual clearing tonight

-Next chance of rain comes Monday night through Tuesday night

-Another cold front moves through on Wednesday

-Colder air filters in behind the second cold front for Thursday and Friday

DISCUSSION. (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 327 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020

-- Rain ends this evening, then gradual clearing tonight --

Rain should end in the next few hours, or by 00z in all areas. The front is weakening with time and so are the rain showers associated with it. Precipitation totals have been as expected on the light side. The highest totals were off to the north on the order of 0.10 to 0.20 inches. Models show the clearing line trying to progress to the south and east tonight and we have no reason to discount this thinking. The back edge of the clouds are already beginning to move out over Lake Michigan from Wisconsin. It may take most of if not all of the night to get the clearing to locations like BTL and JXN. Areas that do clear stand the chance at seeing patchy fog develop. The reason we are not expecting widespread fog tonight is there is some wind in the boundary layer with 20+ knot winds at 1-2K feet. Also, there are some mid clouds (currently seen drifting northeast from near Kansas City) that are forecast to swing through after the low clouds clear and this may put a lid on the amount of radiational cooling.

-- Next chance of rain comes Monday night through Tuesday night --

The details have not changed much on our early to mid week system. It still appears that a warm front will lift into the area Monday night and we will have showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Storms Monday night look to be more scattered though as current instability levels are not prolific during this time frame. That said, models do show an 850mb warm front across Southern Lower Michigan with a low level jet impinging on it. These set ups seem to rarely under perform. Better chances for showers and storms look to come Tuesday into Tuesday night as instability builds. The ECMWF is a bit stronger with the low and pulls dew points around 60F into the area. This sets the stage to create instability Tuesday evening on the order of 1500 j/kg near Holland, MI. We will need to keep an eye on this time frame as it looks to potentially have the most impactful weather in the next 7 days. PWATs near 1.25 inches and decent instability at the very least lends credibility to having storms in the forecast and the potential for swaths of locally heavy rain. We feel most of the area is looking at between 0.25 and 0.75 inches of rainfall.

-- Another cold front moves through on Wednesday --

A secondary cold front will sweep through the area Wednesday evening and bring a band of rain showers with it. Rainfall amounts look to be on the order of around a quarter of an inch. The front is moving through fairly quick and dew points to not crest 50F so the potential for heavy rain looks quite low.

-- Colder air filters in behind the second cold front for Thursday and Friday --

The bigger story with the midweek secondary cold frontal passage is the fact that we will be headed towards the colder side of normal once again. Normal highs are in the lower 50s and we will likely be sent back to the 40s on Thursday and maybe even the 30s for highs on Friday. 850mb temps are on the order of -6C to -11C which is certainly on the colder side of the ledger even for early April.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 728 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020

IFR and MVFR conditions across central Lower Michigan at 00Z will be improving to VFR by 06Z and VFR conditions are expected through Sunday. North winds will be 5 to 10 knots.

MARINE. Issued at 327 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020

Winds are near peak right now on Lake Michigan according to the BUFKIT overview at the LM2 point which is near where the Southern Buoy is typically situated. Northwest winds of 20-25 knots look common for a time yet . through about 4-5pm looking at a plan view from the NAMnest Bottom line. our Small Craft Advisory looks good. Whitecaps are seen on lakeshore webcams with waves even cresting over the north pier at Holland. Winds turn more northeast/offshore as we head through the evening. This should allow waves to gradually settle to below 4 feet as we head towards 11pm.

Surface high pressure will be situated over the area for Sunday into Monday which will keep winds and waves down. Even with a warm front moving into the area Monday night and low pressure moving our direction on Tuesday, we expect conditions to remain quiescent as there is a lack of a substantial pressure gradient.

HYDROLOGY. Issued at 327 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020

With generally less than a tenth of an inch of rain Saturday, river levels will continue to recede for the next couple of days. Only a few river points remain out of bank. On average, ensembles are advertising about a half-inch of additional rain midweek. Amounts could be locally more if thunderstorms develop, but the threat for flooding is low.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849.



SYNOPSIS . Duke DISCUSSION . Duke AVIATION . Ostuno HYDROLOGY . CAS MARINE . Duke


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 9 mi43 min N 9.9 G 12 38°F
45168 12 mi33 min NW 9.7 G 12 38°F 40°F4 ft1021.4 hPa33°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 22 mi61 min N 11 G 13 39°F 45°F1019.9 hPa38°F
45029 31 mi33 min NNW 7.8 G 9.7 38°F 38°F3 ft1021.5 hPa35°F
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 42 mi33 min NNW 9.7 G 14 38°F 40°F4 ft1021.5 hPa33°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 54 mi33 min NE 5.1 G 6 36°F 1022.2 hPa32°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI10 mi18 minN 310.00 miOvercast38°F36°F95%1020.3 hPa
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI20 mi20 minN 510.00 miOvercast41°F34°F76%1020.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLWA

Wind History from LWA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSE3SE3SE3CalmCalmNW5NW7NW7NW7NW7NW9NW7N8NW11
G15
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NW8NW7N6N3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5CalmCalmCalmW4W6NW3NW4CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmE3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4NW3NW4W6W7W6W4NW5CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.