Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Breedsville, MI

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Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 042328 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 728 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020

LATEST UPDATE . Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 327 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020

-Rain ends this evening, then gradual clearing tonight

-Next chance of rain comes Monday night through Tuesday night

-Another cold front moves through on Wednesday

-Colder air filters in behind the second cold front for Thursday and Friday

DISCUSSION. (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 327 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020

-- Rain ends this evening, then gradual clearing tonight --

Rain should end in the next few hours, or by 00z in all areas. The front is weakening with time and so are the rain showers associated with it. Precipitation totals have been as expected on the light side. The highest totals were off to the north on the order of 0.10 to 0.20 inches. Models show the clearing line trying to progress to the south and east tonight and we have no reason to discount this thinking. The back edge of the clouds are already beginning to move out over Lake Michigan from Wisconsin. It may take most of if not all of the night to get the clearing to locations like BTL and JXN. Areas that do clear stand the chance at seeing patchy fog develop. The reason we are not expecting widespread fog tonight is there is some wind in the boundary layer with 20+ knot winds at 1-2K feet. Also, there are some mid clouds (currently seen drifting northeast from near Kansas City) that are forecast to swing through after the low clouds clear and this may put a lid on the amount of radiational cooling.

-- Next chance of rain comes Monday night through Tuesday night --

The details have not changed much on our early to mid week system. It still appears that a warm front will lift into the area Monday night and we will have showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Storms Monday night look to be more scattered though as current instability levels are not prolific during this time frame. That said, models do show an 850mb warm front across Southern Lower Michigan with a low level jet impinging on it. These set ups seem to rarely under perform. Better chances for showers and storms look to come Tuesday into Tuesday night as instability builds. The ECMWF is a bit stronger with the low and pulls dew points around 60F into the area. This sets the stage to create instability Tuesday evening on the order of 1500 j/kg near Holland, MI. We will need to keep an eye on this time frame as it looks to potentially have the most impactful weather in the next 7 days. PWATs near 1.25 inches and decent instability at the very least lends credibility to having storms in the forecast and the potential for swaths of locally heavy rain. We feel most of the area is looking at between 0.25 and 0.75 inches of rainfall.

-- Another cold front moves through on Wednesday --

A secondary cold front will sweep through the area Wednesday evening and bring a band of rain showers with it. Rainfall amounts look to be on the order of around a quarter of an inch. The front is moving through fairly quick and dew points to not crest 50F so the potential for heavy rain looks quite low.

-- Colder air filters in behind the second cold front for Thursday and Friday --

The bigger story with the midweek secondary cold frontal passage is the fact that we will be headed towards the colder side of normal once again. Normal highs are in the lower 50s and we will likely be sent back to the 40s on Thursday and maybe even the 30s for highs on Friday. 850mb temps are on the order of -6C to -11C which is certainly on the colder side of the ledger even for early April.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 728 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020

IFR and MVFR conditions across central Lower Michigan at 00Z will be improving to VFR by 06Z and VFR conditions are expected through Sunday. North winds will be 5 to 10 knots.

MARINE. Issued at 327 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020

Winds are near peak right now on Lake Michigan according to the BUFKIT overview at the LM2 point which is near where the Southern Buoy is typically situated. Northwest winds of 20-25 knots look common for a time yet . through about 4-5pm looking at a plan view from the NAMnest Bottom line. our Small Craft Advisory looks good. Whitecaps are seen on lakeshore webcams with waves even cresting over the north pier at Holland. Winds turn more northeast/offshore as we head through the evening. This should allow waves to gradually settle to below 4 feet as we head towards 11pm.

Surface high pressure will be situated over the area for Sunday into Monday which will keep winds and waves down. Even with a warm front moving into the area Monday night and low pressure moving our direction on Tuesday, we expect conditions to remain quiescent as there is a lack of a substantial pressure gradient.

HYDROLOGY. Issued at 327 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020

With generally less than a tenth of an inch of rain Saturday, river levels will continue to recede for the next couple of days. Only a few river points remain out of bank. On average, ensembles are advertising about a half-inch of additional rain midweek. Amounts could be locally more if thunderstorms develop, but the threat for flooding is low.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849.



SYNOPSIS . Duke DISCUSSION . Duke AVIATION . Ostuno HYDROLOGY . CAS MARINE . Duke

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI	9 mi	43 min	N 9.9 G 12	38°F
45168	12 mi	33 min	NW 9.7 G 12	38°F	40°F	4 ft	1021.4 hPa	33°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI	22 mi	61 min	N 11 G 13	39°F	45°F		1019.9 hPa	38°F
45029	31 mi	33 min	NNW 7.8 G 9.7	38°F	38°F	3 ft	1021.5 hPa	35°F
45026 - St. Joseph, MI	42 mi	33 min	NNW 9.7 G 14	38°F	40°F	4 ft	1021.5 hPa	33°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI	54 mi	33 min	NE 5.1 G 6	36°F			1022.2 hPa	32°F

Wind History for Holland, MI

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI	10 mi	18 min	N 3	10.00 mi	Overcast	38°F	36°F	95%	1020.3 hPa
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI	20 mi	20 min	N 5	10.00 mi	Overcast	41°F	34°F	76%	1020.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLWA

Wind History from LWA (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (23,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI

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