Ripley, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ripley, NY

April 14, 2024 10:28 PM EDT (02:28 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:38 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM
Moonrise 9:41 AM   Moonset 1:17 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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LEZ040 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 1038 Am Edt Sun Apr 14 2024

.small craft advisory in effect through this evening - .

This afternoon - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. A chance of showers early. Showers likely late. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.

Tonight - West winds 5 to 15 knots diminishing to 10 knots or less. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.

Monday - West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Partly Sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.

Monday night - West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south less than 10 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.

Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 foot or less.

Wednesday - East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely during the day, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Wednesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Thursday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers Thursday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LEZ005
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ripley, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 150213 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1013 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build in tonight and bring a return to drier weather that will last through Tuesday. Unsettled weather then returns by midweek as another broad low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY EVENING/
Broad high pressure building in from the west should lead to a MOSTLY dry and quiet night, though expect some wealth post-frontal clouds to linger. There could also be a stray sprinkle up in the North Country. Otherwise, temps will fall back into the low 40s in most spots, with upper 30s across the Tug and Western Dacks.

Ridging will continue to build into the region Monday in the wake of the cold front should keep a mainly dry forecast intact from the Finger Lakes westward. Meanwhile, the base of an upper level trough will linger across northern New York. A shortwave rotating southeast through the base of the trough will send a secondary boundary toward the Saint Lawrence Valley. This may develop a few showers, mainly across the eastern Lake Ontario region, with best chances toward the Saint Lawrence Valley closer to the surface boundary.
Expect seasonable temperatures with highs lower to mid 50s east of Lake Ontario, with mid 50s to near 60 across western New York.

SHORT TERM /6 PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
High pressure slowly builds in aloft and at the surface Monday night which will bring dry weather to all locales through the day Tuesday.

A warm front will then slowly approach from the southwest Tuesday night but will not have much of an impact with continued dry weather. The warm front will then ever so slowly nudge east and northeast on Wednesday
That said
it remains to be seen how much inroads it will make as it runs into the stout ridge fixed to our north and northeast
Furthermore
the system is weakening and beginning to occlude as it moves east
Right now
the best shot at seeing showers on Wednesday looks to be from the Finger Lakes region west across western New York
Elsewhere
the North Country will more than likely stay dry for much of the day Wednesday if not all.

Wednesday night...showers potenial does increase some but overall coverage is uncertain and it may not be a complete washout. This is where uncertainty really increases in the latest guidance package with the overall progression of the fronts and shower coverage. Have leaned on NBM guidance but have lowered PoPs a bit considering the uncertainty.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Thursday and Thursday night surface low pressure over the central Great Lakes will continue to weaken as it gets stretched and eventually sheared apart...with its northern portion eventually getting absorbed by a northern stream trough pushing east across central Canada
As this occurs
its trailing surface occlusion will also gradually weaken and become increasingly ill-defined as it tries pushing across New York State
Consequently
fairly numerous showers across the area Thursday morning will tend to weaken and diminish in coverage while gradually shifting eastward through the rest of Thursday and Thursday night. Given the continued weakening and slowing nature of this system have opted for a somewhat slower eastward progression of the showers than advertised by the NBM...but in general still have PoPs decreasing from high likely on Thursday to the lower half of the chance range by later Thursday night.
Otherwise temperatures will remain on the milder side of normal...
with highs in the lower to mid 60s Thursday followed by lows mostly in the mid to upper 40s Thursday night.

Friday through Saturday the northern stream trough will continue to plow its way eastward across Ontario and Quebec...with this and its attendant surface low near James Bay helping to pivot a trailing cold front east across our area. While some differences in timing of this front persist...in general this will result in a renewed potential for at least some scattered showers during this time frame...along with a downward trend in temperatures with highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s Friday pulling back to the upper 40s to mid 50s Saturday.

After that...uncertainty persists with respect to just how much southeastward headway the front manages to make before one or more southern stream waves ripple northeastward along the departing boundary...with inconsistencies continuing both amongst the various models and from one guidance cycle to the next
Currently
the GEM is notably slower with this than the GFS and ECMWF...which results in the former spreading more pcpn across our area Saturday night...
while the latter models keep us largely dry. Given this large discrepancy and the distant time frame...for now will just indicate some slight chance PoPs for both Saturday night and Sunday.
Otherwise temperatures will run a bit below normal...which could allow for some wet snow to mix in across the higher terrain later Saturday night/early Sunday if precipitation is realized.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
While VFR conditions will be in place through the TAF period...a mid level disturbance will cross the St Lawrence valley late tonight and Monday morning to support MVFR to IFR cigs between 09 and 15z at KROC and KART.

Outlook...

Monday night...Mainly VFR.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers Tuesday night.
Wednesday and Thursday...MVFR/VFR with showers likely.
Friday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of showers.

MARINE
A weak sfc pressure gradient will support mainly gentle to moderate breezes and negligible wave action through Monday. The exception could be on the east end of Lake Ontario where a short period of moderate westerlies will generate choppy conditions and possibly a short period in the afternoon/evening where a small craft advisory could be necessary.

High pressure settling to the southeast from central Canada will then maintain SCA conditions for MOnday night into Tuesday night.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
NREP1 16 mi119 min S 1
EREP1 25 mi59 min SSW 2.9G6
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 26 mi89 min SW 6G8.9 60°F 29.71
WCRP1 35 mi29 min S 1.9G2.9 55°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 45 mi59 min 53°F 29.69


Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KDKK31 sm35 minSSW 0510 smOvercast61°F29.72
Link to 5 minute data for KDKK


Wind History from DKK
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Tide / Current for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of great lakes   
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Buffalo, NY,



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