Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ripley, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Very cold with heavy lake snows east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through today.

2) Lake snows move north late in the day into tonight while gradually weakening in the process.

3) Widespread snow and gusty winds Wednesday to be followed by additional lake effect snow through the end of the week.

4) Bitterly cold airmass to settle over Eastern Great Lakes through this weekend.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Very cold with heavy lake snows east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through today.

Temperatures continue to fall in the wake of the Arctic frontal passage with most areas now experiencing below zero wind chills, while heavy lake effect snow continues off the lakes.

Off of Lake Erie...

A band of heavy lake effect snow stretches from near Silver Creek/Angola northeast across the Boston Hills and more distant Buffalo Southtowns into northern Wyoming and southern Genesee counties.

Expect the band of heaviest snow to oscillate north-south multiple times through today with subtle changes in boundary layer flow, with the band position moving by 10-15 miles at times.

The eastern end of the band will reach farther inland at times through today with occasional bursts of moderate snow extending into portions of Monroe County and the western Finger Lakes. Expect localized 2-4" of additional accumulation, with the greatest amounts across southern Monroe, northern Livingston, and northwest Ontario counties.

The greatest snowfall amounts through today still looks to be across the Buffalo Southtowns (Hamburg, Orchard Park, and East Aurora) and southern Erie County, into western Wyoming County where additional snowfall amounts of up to a foot are possible today into this evening, pushing snowfall totals into the 2-3 foot range, especially in a narrow band from Evans/Angola to the more distant southern suburbs of Buffalo in central Erie County. Just outside of these areas, an additional 4-8 inches is possible, with 2-5 inches possible across from the City of Buffalo to the Buffalo Airport to Alden/Corfu...mainly late today into this evening.

Off of Lake Ontario...

Band of heavy lake effect snow will reach peak intensity today and focus on southern Jefferson, far northern Oswego, and west-central Lewis county...including central Tug Hill Plateau most of the time.
Expect a few subtle north-south oscillations at times with minor changes in boundary layer flow, and may occasionally brush Watertown on the north end.

Snowfall rates of 2 to 5 inches per hour will be likely with the lake band off of Lake Ontario with impressive 12k+ ft equilibrium heights as the lake band takes advantage of the fetch down the long axis of the lake. Additional snowfall amounts of 2-3 feet will be possible, pushing total snowfall amounts into the 2 to 4 foot range in the most persistent bands, most likely across southern Jefferson County into the central Tug Hill Plateau.

Wind chills will bottom out through this morning in the 15 to 20 below zero range across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier, and generally 10 to 15 below elsewhere. Only modest improvement this afternoon, with below zero wind chills lasting through early Wednesday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Lake snows move north late in the day into tonight while gradually weakening in the process.

Winds will begin to back to the southwest this evening then south late tonight in response to the upstream trough nearing the region.
This will begin the process of shifting lake snows back north as we head through tonight. Even so, we will still see some accumulating snows overnight into early Wednesday morning. However, as is many times the case...there remains some uncertainty as to how intense the bands off both lakes will be as the shift northward occurs, especially off Lake Erie. It is quite possible some locales could pick up at least an additional few inches (especially off Lake Ontario) with the northward jog before the band dissipates all together on Wednesday. Band off Lake Ontario may hang on through the majority of tonight, as it pushes north through Jefferson County and eventually into the Saint Lawrence Valley while slowly weakening.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread snow and gusty winds Wednesday to be followed by additional lake effect snow through the end of the week.

A shortwave trough will advance across the Great Lakes Wednesday, with a warm front ahead of a surface low bringing widespread snow.
Associated ascent tied to ongoing warm air advection ahead of a 50 to 60 knot low level jet will support a period of snow ahead of a strong cold front that will arrive later in the day. NBM probabilities of 3 inches or more of snow favors the higher terrain east of both Lakes (Boston/Wyoming Hills and Tug Hill) with perhaps overall snow total reaching advisory levels.

Core of the low level jet within the warm sector of this storm system, with poor mixing likely to keep winds from gusting too strong at the surface through the day. However, increase in wind magnitude within the immediate post-frontal environment may bring some gustiness to 45 mph in the evening northeast of both lakes.

Behind this front lake effect snow is expected east of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. While decent moisture remains Thursday, drier air arrives in the mid levels that will weaken the Lake Erie band by Friday, and later off Lake Ontario. Increasing ice coverage on Lake Erie may also influence the snowband, keeping the higher probabilities for potential warning level snows east of Lake Ontario on the Tug Hill.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Bitterly cold airmass to settle over Eastern Great Lakes through this weekend.

An anomalous strong western ridge of high pressure will extend northward across Alaska and towards the arctic circle, allowing for polar air to slide southward across Canada this week, with the cold air supporting a strong +2 to +3 SD 1050 mb surface high pressure over the northern Plains Friday. 850 mb temperatures will fall to around -25C Friday night through Sunday ahead of this surface high.
A bitterly cold weekend with highs in the single digits, and overnight lows well below zero. Could even see air temperatures reach the negative 20s overnight near Watertown both Friday night and Saturday night if skies clear. A slight breeze will support the likelihood for extreme cold headlines for this weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Heavy lake effect snow will continue east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario this morning. VSBY will be near zero at times within the heaviest lake effect snow bands.

Off Lake Erie, the band of heavy snow will remain mostly south of KBUF and north of KJHW most of the time through mid afternoon.

Lighter snow showers outside of the main band along with blowing snow will continue to bring occasional IFR to KBUF and KJHW, but VSBY will remain above minimums. The eastern end of the band will likely stay mainly south and west of KROC today.

Off Lake Ontario, the band of heavy snow will focus across the central Tug Hill Plateau but the northern edge of the band will likely clip KART and KGTB with IFR (highest probability from 10z- 16z).

Winds will remain elevate today with gusts generally in the 25-35 knot range. Still enough to cause some blowing and drifting snow and periodic reduced visibility on airfields.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Snow showers increase in coverage areawide with cold front. IFR or below at times.

Thursday...Lake effect snow east and northeast of the lakes with IFR/LIFR conditions. MVFR/brief IFR outside of lake effect areas within snow showers.

Friday and Saturday.. MVFR with areas of IFR. Chance of snow showers, especially east and southeast of the lakes in lake effect snow showers.

MARINE
West-southwest gales will continue on Lake Erie early this morning, and on Lake Ontario through this evening with sustained winds in the 35-40 knot range.

Heavy Freezing Spray will be a concern during the period of gales. A heavy freezing spray warning remains for both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario for rapid ice accretion on vessels.

South-southwest winds ramp back up to 20-30 knots behind a warm front Wednesday and Wednesday night, with winds shifting more westerly by Thursday behind a cold front. Westerly winds will remain elevated into Friday as another round of arctic air spreads in.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ003-013-014.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ006>008- 010-011.
Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ012-019- 020-085.
Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ012- 019>021.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LEZ040-041.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ030.
Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for LOZ042>045- 062>065.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for LOZ042>045-062>065.