Dunkirk, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dunkirk, NY

April 14, 2024 4:07 AM EDT (08:07 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:35 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM
Moonrise 9:39 AM   Moonset 1:15 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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LEZ061 Ripley To Buffalo Ny Extending From 5nm Off Shoreline To Us- Canadian Border- Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny Beyond 5 Nm Off Shoreline To Us- Canadian Border- 349 Am Edt Sun Apr 14 2024

Today - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. A chance of showers early, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this morning. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet.

Tonight - West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet.

Monday - West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

Monday night - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast less than 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.

Tuesday - East winds 10 knots or less increasing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Wednesday - East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Showers during the day, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Wednesday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet.

Thursday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LEZ005
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dunkirk, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 140601 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 201 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will cross the area overnight and bring a BRIEF interlude of mainly dry weather and lighter winds...before a compact and fast-moving area of low pressure crosses the area on Sunday.
This will result in another round of widespread showers along with a few thunderstorms
In the wake of this system
high pressure will build in Sunday night and bring a return to drier weather that will then last through Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A narrow/transient area of high pressure will bring a brief period of mainly dry weather and lighter winds through the early pre-dawn hours before quickly sliding off to our east by daybreak. At the same time, a fast-moving and compact area of low pressure will be dropping across the Upper Great Lakes, with its attendant warm front snaking its way southeastward to Lake Ontario and far western New York. This latter system will bring a northwest to southeast increase in cloud cover and a chance of showers to western NY.
Overnight regional radar imagery indicates a narrow band of showers already crossing into the western Southern Tier, though these are expected to diminish or break up in coverage as they move east/southeast. Meanwhile lows will range from the mid to upper 30s in most areas to around 40 across the Niagara Frontier and along the Lake Erie shore.

On Sunday...the compact area of low pressure will quickly dive southeastward across Lake Ontario and New York State...while in the process bringing a couple rounds of fairly widespread showers. The first of these will be warm frontal in nature and will focus across Lake Ontario and adjoining areas during the morning...followed by a second round along the trailing cold front during the afternoon and evening. With this second round there looks to be enough weak instability available to also present the possibility for a few thunderstorms across western New York...with the greatest potential for these found across the western Southern Tier. Given the amount of shear in place...cannot rule out an isolated stronger storm or two with gusty winds across the Southern Tier Sunday afternoon in line with the Marginal Risk portrayed in the SPC Day 1 convective outlook
That being said
the main severe threat with this system still looks to remain confined to our south in tandem with the main reservoir of instability
Otherwise
it will be a milder day with highs ranging from the upper 40s/lower 50s east of Lake Ontario to the lower to mid 60s across the Southern Tier.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A shortwave trough will round the base of the longwave trough spread across the Northeast Sunday night into Monday. This feature will support a surface low overhead of southern New England, with its attendant cold front draped just south of the New York/Pennsylvania state line. Heading into Sunday night, ongoing showers and thunderstorms associated with the cold front will continue to push south following the frontal passage. Thus, expect the chances for showers to diminish throughout the night. With the lack of support from diurnal effects, expect thunderstorm chances to decrease as well shortly after sunset.

Meanwhile, mid-level ridging overhead of the upper Midwest Sunday night will push overhead of the lower Great Lakes by Tuesday night.
As a result, surface high pressure will spread across the Great Lakes Monday through Tuesday supporting a couple of days of dry weather for the start of the new work week. Temperatures will gradually warm during this time, with highs by Tuesday warming up to range in the 60s. A few locations along the valleys across the Southern Tier may climb up towards 70.

The next vigorous southern stream mid-level trough will be lying over the Central Plains Tuesday night, where it will support another area of surface low pressure overhead of the southern Nebraska. An attendant warm front to the surface low will sprawl eastward across the central Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, just upstream over the southern portions of the Canadian Rockies the northern stream trough will lie. As both of these mid-level features advance east and phase, a complex surface system will lie across the Upper Mid-West by Wednesday morning, before it advances eastward across the Great Lakes. Overall, Tuesday night expect increasing chances for rain showers. By Wednesday morning another round of soaking rain will be sliding east across the region from west to east.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
With the now phased mid-level northern and southern stream trough spread across the upper Midwest Thursday, expect the aforementioned surface low spread across the Great Lakes to rotate its cold front across the region Thursday. This will keep the chances for showers to continue throughout the day Thursday.

The now large mid-level trough will span across the Great Lakes region into the Northeast Friday into the weekend. This being said, model guidance continues to remain differed with the strength and broadness of the mid-level trough. Regardless, with the general troughing pattern in place, active weather will continue throughout the end of the work week into the weekend. Additionally, cold air will begin to filter into the region late in the week which may turn rain to snow across a few locations of the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and eastern Lake Ontario regions.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
For the 06z TAF cycle, variable flight conditions can be expected as a fast moving, compact low pressure system approaches from the northwest this morning and then quickly moves southeast of the eastern Great Lakes near or after 00z.

Through daybreak, a transient area of surface high pressure will crest over and east of the region. This is expected to hold mainly VFR conditions in place, though a warm frontal segment attendant to the approaching low will bring a few showers to far western NY (KJHW/KBUF/KIAG) overnight. This could cause localized dips in cigs/vsbys to MVFR.

The low will reach the vicinity of Lake Ontario later this morning, then quickly dive southeast through the afternoon. This will lead to increasingly widespread shower development across the forecast area, with many areas deteriorating to MVFR. A few thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and early evening, mainly in closer proximity to the NY/PA border (KJHW) and the southern Finger Lakes. Brief, localized IFR conditions will be possible in any storms that develop.

Showers should quickly taper off from north to south late this afternoon and early evening in the wake of the system. Sky cover should at least briefly scatter out with improvement to VFR, though with lingering moisture from the previous rains, confidence is low on MVFR clouds and/or patchy IFR fog developing after 00z.

Outlook...

Monday...Mainly VFR.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers Tuesday night.
Wednesday and Thursday...MVFR/VFR with showers likely.

MARINE
High pressure will pass over the Lower Great Lakes ahead of a warm front overnight. The weakening sfc pressure gradient will continue to allow winds and waves to subside. All of the gale warning headlines have been discontinued as a result...with the small craft advisories on Lake Erie and west of Hamlin Beach on Lake Ontario being discontinued as well. Small craft advisories though are in effect for the eastern two thirds of Lake Ontario into Sunday morning.

As weak low pressure passes over the region on Sunday...moderate to fresh southerlies will be found on Lake Ontario while fresh to occasionally strong southwesterlies will be experienced on Lake Erie. While waves are currently forecast to remain below SCA criteria on Lake Erie Sunday afternoon...it should certainly become choppy.

Gentle winds are then anticipated for Sunday night throughout the region.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LOZ043>045.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 2 mi68 min SSW 5.1G8 49°F 29.90
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 20 mi50 min 46°F 29.86
NREP1 30 mi98 min WSW 6G12
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 35 mi50 min W 4.1G7 44°F 48°F29.8540°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 44 mi50 min 46°F 29.88
EREP1 47 mi50 min SSW 5.1G7


Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KDKK CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY/DUNKIRK,NY 3 sm14 minSSW 0710 smMostly Cloudy50°F36°F58%29.89
KJHW CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY/JAMESTOWN,NY 24 sm11 minSW 0710 smMostly Cloudy41°F34°F75%29.90
Link to 5 minute data for KDKK


Wind History from DKK
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Tide / Current for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of great lakes   
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Buffalo, NY,



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