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LEZ061 Ripley To Buffalo Ny Extending From 5nm Off Shoreline To Us- Canadian Border-geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh Beyond 5 Nm Off Shoreline To Us- Canadian Border- Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny Beyond 5 Nm Off Shoreline To Us- Canadian Border- 959 Pm Edt Wed Oct 4 2023
Overnight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers late. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Showers. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 5 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Friday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. Showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely. Waves 3 to 6 feet.

LEZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 050223 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1023 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
An unusually persistent area of stacked high pressure will maintain fine warm weather through Thursday. Several cold fronts will then usher in a dramatic pattern change that will send our region plunging into November conditions by the second half of the weekend.
The transition will include some soaking rain for parts of the area...mainly east of Lake Ontario.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
High pressure centered over the Canadian maritimes will guarantee another beautiful night across our region...but it will support a deeper southerly flow that will assist in holding the mercury well above normal. Mins will generally range from the low to mid 60s...with the vast majority of our population experiencing the latter. These values will be typical of what we experience in mid summer.

On Thursday...a broad based mid-level longwave trough will be in the process of digging across the Canadian prairies to the Upper Great Lakes. The associated leading cold front to this pattern changing scenario will start to make its way across the Upper Great Lakes...
while the aforementioned stacked sfc high will still be anchored in the vcnty of the Canadian maritimes. The tightening sfc pressure gradient between the systems will include a 30kt low level jet that will help to give us ONE MORE day of summer like warmth with max temps largely in the lower 80s. The comfortable conditions will be accompanied by a gradual thickening of cirrus along with midday and afternoon wind gusts to 25 mph.

Our cloud cover will gradually lower and thicken during the course of Thursday night...as a cold front will approach from southern Ontario and Lower Michigan
Being nearly parallel to the H7 flow
the cold front will significantly slow as it nears. This will help to limit the eastward push of the associated shower activity...
although somewhat widespread showers should be in place over the FAR WESTERN counties by daybreak.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A deepening upper level trough will move into the Great Lakes region Friday. This will bring a notable change to the recent warm and dry weather. A cold front will move into far western NY Friday morning and showers will track east through the afternoon. Increasing moisture and southerly flow ahead of the front will create some instability and heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible east of the Genesee River. Showers will begin to taper off across western NY late Friday into Friday evening, however another round of showers ahead of the negatively tilted trough and secondary cold front will move into western NY Friday night. This secondary front will bring the cool, westerly flow into the region. Further east, showers will be ongoing from the Finger Lakes region to the North Country Friday night. Increasing large scale ascent and an easterly component may result in rounds of moderate to heavy rain across northern New York. Rainfall amounts will likely exceed one inch east of Lake Ontario. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.75 inches is likely further west. There is a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall Friday through Friday night with attention east of Lake Ontario where nuisance flooding is possible. Low temperatures will fall to the upper 40s to low 50s Friday night.

The negatively tilted trough will move further east and overhead Saturday through Saturday night. Cold air advection will be ongoing across the region with temperatures at 850mb reaching +2C across western NY by Saturday morning and across north central NY by Saturday afternoon. It will feel downright chilly Saturday (compared to our latest weather) with temperatures reaching the mid 50s. Lake effect rain showers will develop east of Lake Erie early Saturday while synoptically driven showers exit the eastern Lake Ontario region. Breezy across western NY Saturday with west winds 15 to 25 mph and gusts up to 30 mph across western NY. Rain showers will not be confined to the lake areas as multiple short wave troughs pass by within in the upper level trough through Saturday night. Another trough axis will approach the region Saturday night driving widespread showers across the region. There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall from the Genesee River east to the North Country and a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across the North Country.
There are signals that repeated rounds of rainfall are likely across the North Country and localized flooding is possible. Overall, unsettled weather expected for the weekend. Chilly Saturday night with temperatures in the low to mid 40s and westerly winds 15 to 25 mph across the region. The 12z GFS is on the colder side and has temperatures reaching the mid to upper 30s across the Tug Hill.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A closed low forming over southern Ontario and Quebec province Sunday will slowly wobble north of the region through midweek. As is typical with these closed low type systems in the long term, there remains a good deal of uncertainty in how this synoptic pattern will evolve...Though confidence is high that cold, moist cyclonic flow around the low will lead to a stretch of rainy and downright brisk weather, with 850H temps near or just below freezing more than cold enough over the warm lake waters (near 21C) to support ongoing lake enhanced rains east of the lakes. Though the amount of shear and overall placement remains uncertain, lake effects rain showers (especially off Lake Ontario) could become organized and be heavy at times. Temps may cool just enough Sunday night for the first couple of flakes of the season to mix in across the Tug Hill late Sunday night.

This unseasonably cool airmass will also translate to below normal surface temps through the period, with high temperatures Sunday through Tuesday struggling to breach the low 50s, and many areas not even escaping the 40s. These temps will likely sting even more owed to the tightening pressure gradient across the eastern Great Lakes, which will cause a brisk westerly breeze to develop. Westerly wind gusts of 35-40mph are possible on Sunday in particular.

AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR conditions and light winds will be found through Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday Night...VFR. Showers becoming likely after midnight over far western NY.
Friday and Saturday...MVFR to VFR. Frequent showers.
Sunday and Monday...MVFR cigs with showers likely, especially east of both lakes where the activity will be lake enhanced.

MARINE
High pressure exiting off the east coast will provide mainly gentle breezes and no more than some light chop over the region into Thursday morning. Changes start to occur later Thursday and Thursday night with increasing southerly winds. Looking further out, winds on the lakes will increase as a stronger cold front moves through later Friday. Small Craft Advisories will be needed this weekend. In fact...some gale force wind gusts will be likely by late Saturday night and Sunday on Lake Ontario.

CLIMATE
Temperatures into Thursday will be more typical of July rather than early October. Listed below are the records. The current forecast suggests a record high could be tied or broken Thursday at Watertown. Record high minimum temperatures are in jeopardy at these sites Thursday.

*Thursday Thursday

Buffalo 68 (1898) 86 (2007)
Rochester 67 (1891) 91 (1951)
Watertown 60 (1973) 84 (1951)

(*Record High Min)

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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