Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dunkirk, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Spotty freezing rain and drizzle possible may cause slick spots through this evening.

2) Lake enhanced/upslope snow develop across higher terrain east the lakes tonight.

3) Lake enhanced/upslope snows focused southeast and south of Lake Ontario Wednesday through Thursday.

4) Compact area of low pressure may bring accumulating snows later Friday into Saturday.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Spotty freezing rain and drizzle possible may cause slick spots through this evening.

Clipper system tracking just north of the region tonight. Some light rain will develop ahead of the system cold front this afternoon and evening south of Lake Ontario. Due to the recent cold snap, there is a low potential for some slick spots as rain may freeze on contact. Colder air arriving behind a cold front may bring a period of freezing drizzle to favorable westerly flow upslope areas this evening, but overall confidence in coverage and occurrence is low.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold, westerly flow will build back into the region tonight and snow showers will develop with focus across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie and across upslope areas east of Lake Ontario. Snowfall amounts of around an inch are possible across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie, and 1-3" east of Lake Ontario.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Lake enhanced/upslope snows focused southeast and south of Lake Ontario Wednesday through Thursday.

Colder air spilling in behind the departed low and synoptic moisture filling back in will likely support a hybrid lake enhanced/upslope snows Wednesday, then a transition to more lake effect snow showers Wednesday night. With 850 mb temperatures falling to around -12C later Wednesday and plenty of synoptic moisture wrapping back in over the region, favored areas east-southeast of the lakes and the higher terrain (upslope areas) will see the greatest accumulations overall.

Synoptic moisture begins to get stripped away Thursday with lake snows diminishing.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Compact area of low pressure may bring accumulating snows late Friday into Saturday.

Compact, but potent northern stream shortwave and associated surface low will accelerate south then southeast across NY and New England Friday night into Saturday bringing increasing chances for some accumulating snow to our area. Although confidence is higher for some measurable snow, confidence is remains low with regard to the exact timing and track of the system. Highest probabilities for impact snowfall amounts at this point are across the eastern Lake Ontario region, especially the higher terrain of the Tug Hill and western Dacks. Alternative possible outcomes: A further east track of the system would mean less snow for our area (especially eastern areas), while a further west track would bring accumulating snows to most, if not all of western and northcentral NY.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
For the 00Z TAFS a cold front will swing across the TAF region the next 6 hours, with winds becoming west to northwesterly...and lagging behind the front ceiling heights falling to MVFR, and higher terrain of SW NYS (KJHW) IFR.

As temperatures aloft cool, a transition from rain to snow and lower cloud bases are expected to develop. A period of IFR flight conditions are possible for KART later tonight, and then as the cold air deepens further, lake effect snowband near KART through the midday hours tomorrow.

Lighter snow showers are expected across the upslope higher terrain east of Lake Erie tonight, expanding in coverage tomorrow with the deepening cold air to then include both Buffalo and Niagara Falls.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday...Restrictions possible in scattered snow showers.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR, but restrictions possible in snow showers east of Lake Ontario late Friday and early Saturday.

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
Winds will gradually shift to the west-northwest tonight into Wednesday with speeds of 20-25 knots, then northwest by Wednesday night. Small craft headlines will likely be needed on Lake Ontario during this time frame. Increasing wind speeds on Lake Erie may also necessitate small craft headlines.

Wind will temporarily weaken Thursday.

Please note...Most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters are now ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the forecast.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LOZ043- 044.