Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dunkirk, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
A broad, weak mid level circulation over the Ohio Valley this morning will gradually open up into a negatively tilted trough, which will drift slowly north across the Great Lakes and southern New England through Thursday. Weak forcing and moisture associated with this feature will produce a few rounds of showers today through Thursday, along with lengthy breaks of mainly rain free time.

An area of light rain stretching from Lake Ontario across Rochester into the Finger Lakes early this morning will continue to drift slowly east/northeast today, reaching the eastern Lake Ontario region this afternoon. In the wake of this area of rain, a period of minimal forcing and less mid level moisture should result in mainly dry conditions across Western NY by this afternoon, with the drying trend spreading east across the rest of the area later this afternoon and evening. Expect mainly dry conditions overnight in most areas, with the best chance of a few isolated showers being late tonight across the western Southern Tier as the next spoke of moisture drifts north out of PA.

Thursday, the weak mid level trough axis will be overhead. A plume of modest instability and deeper moisture will move back into the eastern Great Lakes. The morning will still be mainly dry, with the possible exception of the western Southern Tier where a few scattered showers will develop. Expect the coverage of showers and a few scattered thunderstorms to increase in the afternoon with diurnal instability, and low level forcing from lake breeze boundaries and terrain induced circulations. The best coverage of rain will likely be found from the Southern Tier northeast across the Genesee Valley to the western Finger Lakes, and across the southern Tug Hill region. Weak flow and poor lapse rates will keep the severe risk to a minimum through Thursday evening.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
The next closed low to impact the region will meander out of the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest Thursday night. The system will become vertically stacked as it begins to encroach on the western Great Lakes Friday, then give way to secondary cyclogenesis at the base of a secondary closed low over Hudson Bay Friday night. The aggregate trough will then finally traverse the eastern Great Lakes on Saturday.

In terms of sensible weather, this pattern should draw plenty of Gulf-based moisture into the region and result in two distinct opportunities for widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms.
The first will come late Thursday night into Friday as a robust prefrontal trough moves in from the west. While diurnal timing of this feature doesn't lend a significant risk of surface based convection, there will likely be enough elevated instability (up to 1500J/kg MUCAPE) and an uptick in bulk shear values (~30kts 0-6km)
to pose a lower-end risk of more robust thunderstorms as it moves through. The second round of showers and thunderstorms will come late Friday night into Saturday as the system's strong cold front similarly move in from the west. A bit more uncertainty with this round of precip as elevated instability will be present though again, diurnal timing does not appear overly favorable for strong surface based convection.

Outside the chances for showers/thunderstorms, warm and muggy weather is expected through at least Friday, though southwest flow should keep temps several degrees lower around the Buffalo Metro during the day. Slightly cooler but still quite warm for most of Saturday ahead of the cold front.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A stacked low pressure system and broad surface wave will move east of the region Saturday night. General troughing will linger across the Northeast well into next week, with strong CAA around the system causing temperatures to average near to below normal. Residual moisture with these cooler temperatures aloft could allow for some diurnal showers on Sunday, with occasional wrap around showers possibly clipping the North Country at times. Otherwise, a stout ridge building in from the Mississippi Valley will allow for mostly dry weather late Saturday night through much of Tuesday. The next closed low could then bring another round of showers in from the west by Tuesday evening.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A broad, weak upper level low over the Ohio Valley this morning will evolve into a mid level trough as it drifts slowly north into the Great Lakes through Thursday. This system will continue to produce a wealth of cloud cover across the region today through tonight, along with a few areas of rain. The primary area of rain over Lake Ontario, KROC, and the Finger Lakes this morning will move slowly to the eastern Lake Ontario region this afternoon. The rain will mainly be very light, with little restriction to VSBY. Most of Western NY will trend mainly dry this afternoon as a pocket of somewhat drier mid level air moves into the region.

VFR CIGS across lower elevations early this morning will evolve into a mix of lower end VFR and MVFR later this morning through early evening, then return to mainly VFR tonight. Lower end MVFR and spotty IFR will be more prevalent across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with scattered showers. Isolated thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and evening with associated brief/local restrictions.

Friday and Saturday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely and afternoon/evening thunderstorms with local/brief restrictions.

Sunday...Mainly VFR with scattered showers.

MARINE
Moderate easterlies on Lake Ontario will continue to produce choppy conditions today through this evening, especially on the west half of the lake, but winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Relatively light winds are expected Thursday through Thursday night.
Winds will become south to southwest Friday through Saturday and increase, with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible by Saturday as a cold front crosses the eastern Great Lakes. Small Craft Advisory conditions may continue through Sunday behind the cold front with moderate westerlies.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.