Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dunkirk, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Limited threat for severe weather into early this evening.

2) Colder weather by the end of the week with some potential for snow.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Limited threat for severe weather into early this evening.

Initial round of showers and embedded thunderstorms working through the North Country early this afternoon. This area of convection focused on the nose of a low level jet and along a nearly stationary boundary draped along the northern portions of New York State. This activity will likely lift northward through this afternoon, with western and north central New York remaining within the warm sector.
Modest heating and lapse rates will limit destabilization this afternoon. However, the presence of dewpoints in the low-mid 60s and low-level hodograph curvatures will favor the potential for some organized convection to develop later this afternoon. There is a LIMITED threat for localized damaging wind gusts. SPC continues to promote a Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Colder weather by the end of the week with some potential for snow.

A deepening upper level trough will progress eastward into the Great Lakes region Thursday night and Friday. The associated surface low will strengthen across the Great Lakes, supporting a sharp cold front to sweep through on Friday. Confidence remains low at this time as model discrepancies with the timing, strength and placement of this system persists. Regardless, the atmospheric pattern will likely bring the potential for strong winds Friday into Saturday.
Additionally, a much colder airmass will surge into the area in the wake of the frontal passage with pre-frontal synoptic rain showers eventually giving way to lake effect rain and snow showers.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
For the 18Z TAFs several waves of storms along a stationary frontal boundary that is draped across the US/Canadian border will continue to impact the North Country/CNY including KART through the evening hours. Any thunderstorm will likely bring brief IFR flight conditions, along with gusty winds to local airfields, with the best timing for storms through 00Z for the KART airfield. Elsewhere likely VFR flight conditions into the evening hours with a southwest flow around 35 knots slowly diminishing off Lake Erie.

An area of low pressure tracking along the US/Canadian waters will drag a weak cold front across the TAF region tonight. While this system will carry any lingering storms eastward, it will also produce a wind shift, with southwest winds becoming west- northwesterly tonight with speeds generally around 10 knots or less.
Additionally low level moisture behind the front will likely bring a layer of MVFR (higher terrain IFR) stratus across the airfields tonight, with this deck of MVFR clouds likely to linger through the end of the TAF cycle.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...Windy. IFR/MVFR in rain showers.

Saturday...Breezy, MVFR/VFR, with locally IFR early in a chance of lake effect precipitation.

Sunday...VFR

MARINE
Southwest winds will remain elevated into this evening across the lower Great Lakes ahead of an approaching cold front. Speeds on Lake Erie and the Niagara River may reach 20 to 25 knots at times into this evening with a brief period of small craft headlines in place.

Any isolated thunderstorms could bring the potential for stronger wind gusts this afternoon. The southwest winds will turn northwesterly behind the cold frontal passage tonight. High pressure will build over the Great Lakes for mid-week with winds becoming northerly by Thursday.

Strong low pressure will pass through the region and winds will increase behind a cold front with some potential for gales Friday evening into Saturday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ040- 041.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for LOZ030.