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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 403 Pm Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Light showers likely in the morning... Then a chance of light showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning...then becoming west 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy with a chance of light showers in the evening...then mostly cloudy with light showers likely after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy in the evening becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy then clearing. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 090745 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 245 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

DISCUSSION

Wind Advisory issued today for Tri-Cities region, Flint Vicinity, and northern Thumb region for post frontal wind pop early this afternoon.

Yesterday's highs peaked out in the 50 (Kbax) - 55 (kdet) degree range, with 52 degrees representing the majority of sites.
Temperatures have held fairly steady early this morning, setting us up for an even warmer day/potential record setting warmth (see climate section for records). Despite surface dew pts climbing above 40 degrees, with the lack of snow cover and the ground not being frozen, low (IFR) clouds have not been an issue thus far, and still no signs of drizzle in the State yet. Upstream radar does show areas of light showers/drizzle lifting north through Indiana. If this activity associated with the isentropic ascent within the warm sector does not materialize/hold together this morning over southeast Michigan, there looks to be showers generated with the cold front this afternoon regardless, as the low level convergence looks good with SBcapes in excess of 50 J/kg. Stout mid level dry air/inversion will limit cloud tops under 8 kft. Based off current temps and latest guidance of MAV/ECM mos, see no compelling region to adjust maxes, and expecting most locations to end up in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees.

Compact shortwave and associated surface low currently over Western Illinois will be lifting north through Lake Michigan today, deepening in the process. 00z Euro ensemble mean and regional gem both indicating a low down to 993 mb by day's end, tracking through far eastern Lake Superior. Strong southwest low level jet (55 knots at 850 mb) with this system, but mixing depths this morning in the warm sector should be well below this max wind speed. However, there will be very good surge of low level cold advection at both the 925/850 mb levels and downward momentum behind the cold front this afternoon, mainly north of I-69, as the 6 hr rise/fall couplet (sub 20 mb) indicates the main surge into northern Lower Michigan. Based off soundings/mixing depths, especially per ARW, brief wind gusts aoa 45 mph is expected across the Tri-Cities region. Saginaw Vally does well with a southwest component, adding to the confidence.
Confidence then begins to diminish as one heads south, but even areas outside of the advisory should hit 30-40 mph. Wind fields drop off quickly late in the day, and winds become light for evening hours.

It should also be mainly dry for the evening hours as the mid level dry slot lingers and the low levels dry out post frontal. The exception looks to be across far eastern areas, as the left exit region of the 125 knot jet (250 mb) tracks in between the Central/Eastern Great Lakes, potentially supporting reveloping/lingering showers to persist for evening.

A progressive upper level pattern, lack of bitter cold air over Canada, and polar jet retreating north to James Bay by mid week will limit duration of the modest cold spell to end the Weekend into Monday.

Unfavorable northwest flow, low inversion heights and just modestly cold enough airmass around for Sunday to support a chance of flurries/isolated melting snow showers as the trough axis swings through Sunday night. 850 mb temps lowering to -12 C Sunday night will present a better chance of isolated light snow showers producing a dusting into Monday morning.

Shortwave ridging moves over the central Great Lakes for Monday evening ahead of the next shortwave trough, which tracks through the northern Great Lakes Tuesday morning. Model trends are for a deeper parent upper level low (~505 DAM at 500 mb) over northern Ontario, and a more substantial shot of cold air looks to be in store, per 00z Canadian and Euro. Although, a rather sharp north to south baroclinic zone/temperature gradient appears likely, with 850 mb temps aob -12 C around Saginaw Bay to -6 C near the southern Michgian border for Tuesday. In any event, would not rule out a few light snow showers/flurries north of I-69 with the brisk westerly flow, but subsidence and low level drying appears to be too strong at this time.

MARINE

A low pressure system lifting out of the the mid Mississippi River Valley will arrive over Lake Michigan this morning and continue northeast across the Straits this afternoon. This system will drag a cold front across the central Great Lakes bringing widespread rainfall and an uptick in south-southwest wind speeds along the front during the afternoon/evening. Wind gusts may reach gales occasionally, but the expected shorter duration of these gusts precludes any gale headlines at this time. However, Small Craft Advisory conditions will develop across Saginaw Bay to Port Huron this morning and last through the early afternoon for most zones.
Elevated waves into the evening will keep small craft conditions in effect for Outer Saginaw Bay. Troughing overtakes the region with west to northwest winds ushering colder air into Sunday with the main frontal system off to our east. Precipitation chances will be limited to lake effect snow showers Sunday evening into Monday across the southeastern half of Lake Huron with the favorable flow.
The cold air brings greater instability over the lakes, but gust potential should top out around 25 knots or less for the early week period with a weak surface pressure gradient field.

CLIMATE

Here are the record high temperatures for today December 9th:

Detroit 58 (set in 1946)
Flint 59 (set in 1946)
Saginaw 58 (set in 1952)

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 1149 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

AVIATION...

Low level moisture increasingly connected to the Gulf coast is transported into the Great Lakes late tonight on deep SW flow of moderate intensity. The moisture axis occurs in a very mild warm sector air mass associated with mature low pressure near the MN arrowhead. Early evening borderline VFR/MVFR ceiling is becoming more consistently MVFR heading toward midnight which is then followed by a drop into the 1500 ft range with similar onset timing across the SE Mi terminal corridor. The nocturnal low level jet is just short of LLWS criteria but is more than adequate for strong low level moisture transport eventually leading to IFR ceiling shortly after sunrise. The moisture axis being very mild for early December leads to an easy call on all rain showers as precipitation breaks out ahead of the cold front that is set to sweep across SE Mi during the afternoon. Gusty SW wind is expected along and for a few hours post front with SW gusts reaching the 30 knot range until closer to sunset Saturday evening.

For DTW... Ceiling settles into MVFR range during the remainder of tonight as very mild and moist air moves into the region. IFR ceiling follows as MVFR rain showers increase coverage during the morning. A strong cold front is expected at DTW mid to late afternoon which brings a gusty wind shift to the SW into Saturday evening.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling below 5000 feet tonight and Saturday.



DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for MIZ047>049-053-054-060-061.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 11 PM EST this evening for LHZ421.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for LHZ422.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 5 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ441>443.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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