Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Delton, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 332 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

- Periods of Showers and Storms through Wednesday

A weakening low will move in from the south tonight with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms with the occluded front. These showers will lift north through Tuesday morning. Some diurnally driven showers and storms are then possible during the afternoon as we remain under the trough with some pockets of weak lift available. There is a question though if we'll be able to tap into some surface based instability. With cooler temperatures than the previous forecast there is more of a CAP in place as seen in soundings. However the lake breeze during the afternoon could be a focus for shower and thunderstorm develop. Any isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected to dissipate after sunset.

Wednesday will be a similar setup although slightly warmer with a better chance for an uncapped environment resulting in pop up thunderstorms. Therefore the probability of precipitation is higher in the 50 to 70 percent range for much of the area. There is little shear in play, but stronger storms could produce some small hail and gusty winds.

Showers and storms either day will be capable of some heavy downpours with precipitable water values around 1.00 to 1.50 inches.

- Potential for Strong to Severe Storms Thursday

The upper level pattern shifts with southwest flow setting up over the area. We'll be favorably under the left exit region of the upper level jet which will provide ample upper level divergence over the region. Instability is expected to build through the day and eventually the cap in place is expected to erode with the front as it moves through. Timing wise there is some variability with the different ensemble members. Some are quicker bringing storms through during the late afternoon and evening while another solution brings storms through later in the evening/overnight timeframe. Either way with plenty of CAPE, modest shear, and curved hodographs severe storms are possible.

- Cooler this Weekend with Chance for Showers

The upper level low associated with Thursday evening's storms will linger over the northern Great Lakes into the weekend. While Friday looks largely dry behind the cold front, moisture and positive vorticity advection wrapping around the low move back in for Friday night into Saturday bringing a 20 to 40 percent chance for showers and a few thunderstorms. Drier conditions move in Saturday afternoon and continue through the remainder of the weekend with highs in the 60s to low 70s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 740 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

VFR cigs and vsbys will continue until around 06Z. A lowering of cigs will occur after 06Z. Expect MVFR to IFR cigs to overspread the region. Periods of showers will become more consistent after 12Z with cigs lifting to MVFR after 15Z. MVFR with periods of showers will continue through the early afternoon. Northern TAF sites should improve to VFR after 20Z with southern TAF sites lingering in MVFR with periods of IFR possible through Tuesday afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 332 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Variable winds become southeasterly tonight into Tuesday.
Scattered showers and storms will be possible overnight into Tuesday morning. A lake breeze is expected to develop Tuesday afternoon which could be a focus for showers and thunderstorms into the early evening. Similar conditions are expected Wednesday.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.