Thursday, January21, 2021
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Delton, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:03AMSunset 5:44PM Thursday January 21, 2021 10:14 PM EST (03:14 UTC) Moonrise 12:30PMMoonset 1:34AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 1005 Pm Est Thu Jan 21 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through late Friday night...
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain and snow showers through about 2 am, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 7 to 10 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Waves 6 to 9 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots backing south late in the day. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 20 knots. Cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ845 Expires:202101221000;;288545 FZUS53 KGRR 220305 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1005 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ845-221000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Delton, MI
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location: 42.49, -85.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 212356 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 656 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2021

LATEST UPDATE . Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 320 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2021

- Lake effect snow showers and colder Friday

- Quiet most of Saturday but chilly

- Light snow Saturday night into Sunday

- Possible snow storm Monday and Thursday

DISCUSSION. (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 320 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2021

- Lake effect snow showers and colder Friday

Yet another minor lake effect snow event is expected later tonight into Friday night. This event does look a little better now than it did a few days ago but it still will struggle to result in more than a 1/2 inch in most locations by Saturday evening. An isolated 2 inch amount is possible through. We do have cyclonic flow at low levels into Friday and inversion heights will be near 5000ft we do get a snow event from this. A pathetic one, at best, but snow is snow. I do want to point out the NAM has inversion heights only to 4000 ft but the HRRR and RAP model get to 6000 ft. All things considered I would go with the HRRR and RAP on that idea. One way of the other that is not all that deep but there is lift in the DGZ and speed convergence near the lake shore so we will get some light snow showers tonight into Friday night. Winds of 25 to 35 knots in the clouds will bring the snow bands well inland into Friday. That deceases snowfall too through, since it spreads the snowfall out over a larger area.

Thanks to large upper high moving westward over Greenland we get a brief window to get some truly cold air into Southwest Michigan during the next in the next 24hrs. The problem with this cold air is that cold air not staying over Michigan for very long. That upper high keeps moving west. That upper high would need to stay over Greenland for us to stay in the cold air. Since it does not stay there, that in turn off the cold air nearly nearly as quickly as it allows it to impact us. None the less, this will be the coldest air of the winter but like every other event this winter,so far, it does not last more then 18-24 hrs. With 850 temperatures falling to near -18c (coldest so far, this winter, for this area) that is more than cold enough given Lake Michigan's mean surface water temperature is near 40 degrees.

- Quiet most of Saturday but chilly

As the next upstream northern and southern stream shortwaves move into North America, that causes a shortwave ridge to move over this area Saturday. That ends the snow shower but it will remain cold.

- Light snow Saturday night into Sunday

As those next upstream shortwave move toward the central CONUS, we get a warm advection snow event. This is in the late Saturday night into midday Sunday time frame. There is a northern stream wave associated with this system so the great snowfall will be over northern Lower Michigan.

- Possible snow storm Monday and Thursday

The southern stream tries to get active again this coming week. Since the ECMWF (as typical) is slower moving upper waves out of the Southwestern CONUS, it allows a better and strong system to head this way than does the GFS which is likely to quick in moving this system east. The ECMWF has had this storm impacting us for at least 6 model runs in a row. Meanwhile the GFS is had it not impacting us for those same model runs. Nearly all of the ECMWF 50 ensemble members like the snow getting into Michigan while only 5 out of the 30 GFS members like that idea. If it happens it would be the largest snow storm of the season so far (which given what has happens so far is not saying much).

If you like that event, then we have a similar event on Thursday to watch. It is very similar to the Monday event. So that will be the next system to watch for.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 655 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2021

The main themes of the next 24 hours, or through Friday evening will be plenty of MVFR clouds, occasional snow showers and northwest winds.

As for the clouds, VFR stratocumulus clouds are filling in across the area as we close in on 700pm with bases around 4,500 ft. Lower ceilings exist behind a cold front which currently stretches from near Mackinac Island back to the west-southwest across portions of Central Wisconsin. This front will surge south through Southwest Lower Michigan tonight bringing in widespread MVFR ceilings and changing the wind direction to the northwest. Expecting MVFR ceilings to really become widespread around and shortly after midnight.

Colder air will flow in behind the front and aid in generating snow showers off Lake Michigan which is already occurring. We are not expecting significant reduction in visibility with these snow showers. For the most part visibilities will be between 6 and 10 miles, but we will see brief reductions to 3-5 miles especially at MKG, GRR and AZO.

Winds will steadily come down through the course of the next 24 hours as the strong Canadian low moves away to the east. We can still expect 10-20 knot winds and gusts to around 25 knots through at least 06z however.

MARINE. Issued at 320 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2021

With the cold air coming in, little question we will have 20 to 30 knot winds over the near shore into Friday night. So no changes needed in the marine headlines.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Saturday for LMZ844>849.



SYNOPSIS . wdm DISCUSSION . wdm AVIATION . Duke MARINE . wdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 46 mi74 min WNW 22 G 27 38°F 34°F1005.1 hPa (+0.9)28°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 46 mi64 min 26 G 29 37°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 63 mi74 min W 20 G 24 37°F 1008.1 hPa (+1.3)
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 70 mi54 min NW 27 G 32 36°F 1006.4 hPa24°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Battle Creek Executive Airport, MI16 mi21 minWSW 1410.00 miOvercast35°F25°F67%1006 hPa
Kalamazoo/Battle Creek International Airport, MI18 mi21 minWSW 11 G 1810.00 miOvercast36°F24°F62%1006.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBTL

Wind History from BTL (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN15
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2 days agoSW12SW9SW11W10W12W13W16
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W9W7SW9SW8SW10SW11SW12SW12W14SW11SW11SW10SW10SW11SW11SW12SW10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.