Tuesday, January21, 2020
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L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Delton, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:03AMSunset 5:43PM Tuesday January 21, 2020 12:22 PM EST (17:22 UTC) Moonrise 5:22AMMoonset 2:49PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 1105 Am Est Tue Jan 21 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 pm est this evening through late Wednesday night...
Rest of today..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Wednesday..South winds to 30 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Wednesday night..South winds 10 to 20 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Friday..East winds 10 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of snow showers. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ845 Expires:202001212200;;296530 FZUS53 KGRR 211605 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1105 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ845-212200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Delton, MI
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location: 42.49, -85.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 211114 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 614 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

LATEST UPDATE . Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 302 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

- Freezing drizzle threat this morning decreasing

- Dry through Wednesday

- Some light snow Wednesday night into Thursday night

- Another system may bring snow Friday into Saturday

DISCUSSION. (Today through next Monday) Issued at 302 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

-- Freezing drizzle threat this morning decreasing --

Current observational trends suggest less of a chance for freezing drizzle than the already low chance expected before. Light snow is being observed at KOEB and other stations just south of the forecast area. This is associated with a couple small areas of very weak returns noted on KGRR radar. These areas coincide nicely with a couple of weak PV maxima moving south, per GOES-E Channel 09 IR/WV imagery. Given that ice already is present in the clouds and surface winds are weakly divergent and apparently unable to provide upward vertical motion in the cloud layer, we believe the threat for freezing drizzle remains quite low.

-- Dry through Wednesday --

No changes to previous thinking. After some flurries this morning, the forecast certainty for dry weather remains high.

-- Some light snow Wednesday night into Thursday night --

No changes from previous thinking. Looking less likely that we will experience an initial brief period of freezing rain/freezing drizzle as the atmosphere moistens. Precipitation chances exceed 50% for our western forecast areas, but total amounts likely stay well under a tenth of an inch for most areas. A tad more is possible to the northwest around Ludington where the front could stall.

-- Another system may bring snow Friday into Saturday --

No changes to previous forecasts. As suspected, we are seeing a larger proportion of ECWMF ensemble members latching onto significant downstream cyclogenesis along the east coast. This could nudge the cutoff low track farther south and leave us dry. We continue to carry 50-70% PoPs for now, primarily on Saturday. But, we could be seeing those probabilities dwindling as we approach the weekend. As mentioned multiple times now, even the worst case scenario for our area continues to look non-impactful with modest accumulations of snow north of I-96 and a rain/snow mix farther south, also with modest accumulations.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 614 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

MVFR ceilings may scatter out or lift above 3000 feet to VFR by 16Z, although it wouldn't be too surprising for MVFR to hang around longer. Prevailing west to southwest winds will become established by late morning.

MARINE. Issued at 302 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

A Small Craft Advisory will go into effect this afternoon from Holland north and at 7 PM for our remaining marine zones to the south, where more time will be needed to grow waves due to less fetch with winds from the southwest.

HYDROLOGY. Issued at 330 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

A new ice jam has formed on the Kalamazoo River near Comstock Michigan. The jam is just downstream of the King Highway bridge which is about 2 miles east of downtown Kalamazoo. The jam extends eastward or upstream and is producing flooding all the way back into Comstock. Ice jams are unpredictable and can cause rapid fluctuations in river levels. The stretch of river of concern is from the King Highway bridge east to Marrow Dam. An areal Flood Warning has been issued for this stretch of river and we have an expiration time of 3 days out on Thursday. A slow warmup is about the best medicine for an ice jam and that is what is forecast this week.

The areal Flood Advisory in Mecosta County has been dropped as water levels have receded.

Dry weather is expected through Wednesday which will help rivers in areas outside of ice jams recede. The next chance for precipitation Wednesday night through Thursday night will only be light and will not affect river levels.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday for LMZ846>849.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Thursday for LMZ844-845.



SYNOPSIS . TJT DISCUSSION . TJT AVIATION . CAS HYDROLOGY . Duke MARINE . TJT


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 46 mi53 min 28°F 33°F1034.4 hPa20°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 46 mi23 min SW 13 G 15 28°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 63 mi23 min WSW 9.9 G 12 29°F 1035.2 hPa (-1.0)
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 70 mi23 min W 14 G 16 29°F 1036.5 hPa (-0.3)21°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
W K Kellogg Airport, MI16 mi30 minSW 810.00 miOvercast26°F19°F75%1035.9 hPa
Kalamazoo/Battle Creek International Airport, MI18 mi30 minWSW 610.00 miOvercast27°F18°F69%1036.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBTL

Wind History from BTL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5NE4N43NW4W3W4W5W4W4W3W4NW7NW6N5CalmSE3CalmSE4S4CalmSW5SW8SW8
1 day agoW16W14W9N5N6N6N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmNW4N3W3NW3CalmNE6NE4NE3NE7NE6
2 days agoSW12W22
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.