DISCUSSION
Issued at 214 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

- Another cool night tonight

A large area of high pressure in WI will build slowly southeast through Monday. There's a very dry air mass in place and it will continue to dry out into the evening as PWAT's lower. Currently we are running several degrees lower with both the temperature and dewpoint as compared to 24 hrs ago. Thus, a very good radiational cooling night is expected. It's likely that we will see the overnight lows dip a few degrees lower than last night. It looks likely that we will see some patchy frost up north, especially in the upper reaches of the Muskegon River basin. This would include Clare County. Ensemble temperature forecasts don't support the need for headlines at this point so we will hold off any issuing a frost advisory at this point.

- Hot and mild into next week

The mid to long range models, as well as the ensembles, show a strong signal for a large upper level low over the northeast with a building ridge over central north america. This will keep any moisture away from the Great Lakes with strong warm air advection into the area through mid week. A last gasp of summer may be ahead as temperatures trend warmer. Latest models have 850 mb temperatures on Thursday upwards of +19C. This should correlate to max temperatures through the week in the mid to upper 80s with temperatures making a run at 90 towards the end of the week. That would put max temperatures upwards of 15 degrees above normal.



AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 127 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

Gusty northwesterly flow will continue this morning with VFR conditions expected to prevail through tomorrow. Expect winds to diminish this evening from west to east. Gusty winds at JXN could linger until 04Z. Expect gusts to over 20 knots again tomorrow beginning around 15Z.

MARINE
Issued at 214 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

Conditions continue to be hazardous for swimmers and small craft on Lake Michigan this afternoon. The buoys indicate waves are generally in the 3 to 7 feet range and webcams show the north sides of the piers especially dangerous. While the winds and waves gradually decrease tonight, the dangerous conditions will persist through the evening. We will therefore maintain the current headlines into tonight.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday morning for MIZ037-043- 050-056-064-071.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ844>849.