Old Mill Creek, IL Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
L-36.com
Top   Marine   7-Day   NWS   Buoy   Airport   Tide   Map   GEOS   Radar   TAF  

Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Old Mill Creek, IL

June 17, 2024 10:59 AM CDT (15:59 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:12 AM   Sunset 8:33 PM
Moonrise 4:25 PM   Moonset 2:09 AM 
  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      HIDE   Help
LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 905 Am Cdt Mon Jun 17 2024

Rest of today - South wind 10 to 15 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Slight chance of Thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

Tonight - South wind 10 to 15 knots. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Tuesday - South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late morning and afternoon.

Tuesday night - South wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots late in the evening, then becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet early in the morning.

LMZ600
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Mill Creek, IL
   Hourly   EDIT   Help   Map   HIDE
NEW! Add second zone forecast


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
      HIDE   Help   
NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KMKX 171429 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 929 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid conditions expected today through Wednesday, with temperatures and heat index values in the 90s. The highest temperatures and heat index values are expected this afternoon.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, with the strongest storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail.

- There will be daily thunderstorm chances through the week due to warm and humid conditions, with the highest rain chances Wednesday afternoon (as a weak cold front approaches).

- Dangerous swim conditions are possible Tuesday afternoon at Lake Michigan beaches in Sheboygan and Ozaukee Counties.

UPDATE
Issued 930 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Continuing to monitor the convective complex currently spanning from eastern NE to northwestern WI as it gradually drifts northeastward. Though this system is not expected to fully 'arrive' in our CWA, outflow boundaries ejected eastward from it could potentially reach our northwestern CWA and serve as a triggering mechanism for convection this afternoon. Even if said boundaries were to miss our area completely, potential for widely scattered thunderstorms would still be present this afternoon (all areas), with daytime heating gradually eroding CIN and reaching convective temps. CAMs are not in agreement on said auto-convection, hence our PoPs for this afternoon are 20% all areas, up to 30% for our far northern and northwestern CWA (along and north of a Baraboo to Juneau to Sheboygan line) to account for triggering along outflow boundaries. If convection occurs this afternoon, it would likely be in the form of widely scattered ordinary cells (Deep shear < 20 kts, SBCAPE over 2000 joules, DCAPE approaching 1000 joules, PW around 1.5 in), with a threat for gusty winds and downpours. High freezing levels and poor mid level lapse rates should prevent large hail formation.

Convection is likely to dwindle tonight with the shutdown of daytime heating, with mostly dry weather expected. A select few CAMs develop weak showers and thunderstorms late tonight in response to continued southerly WAA, PoPs for this are currently 15% or less.

Sheppard

SHORT TERM
Issued 409 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Today through Tuesday:

Strong thermal ridging in the southeastern U.S. combined with a deepening surface low in the lee of the Colorado Rockies will continue to push hot, humid air into southern Wisconsin today through Tuesday. This air mass not only will produce high heat index values in the mid to upper 90s, but also brings chances for thunderstorms today and Tuesday.

Temperatures will climb quickly this morning as cloud cover remains minimal and southwesterly winds increase, reaching highs in the 90s across much of southern Wisconsin.
Southwesterly winds and downsloping off the Kettle Moraine will allow even areas near Lake Michigan to see temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.

During the afternoon hours today, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible as surface temperatures rise to near convective temperature. A well mixed boundary layer and deep WAA combined with CAPE values over 2000 J/kg are expected to yield a few afternoon thunderstorms, with outflows leading to additional potential development. Bulk shear values of 20 kt or less are expected, making organization minimal for any developing cells.
In addition, WAA aloft is expected to keep midlevel lapse rates on the lower side and prevent large hail formation. Main concern then turns to gusty winds within stronger storms, with DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg and PWAT values around 1.5 inch lending credence to precipitation loading and corresponding downburst potential. The best chances for thunderstorm development are from Sauk to Ozaukee County northward, as this is along the southern side of a decaying MCS. However, the environment remains primed across all of southern Wisconsin.

Tuesday, hot and humid conditions continue, but thunderstorm activity looks to be more conditional. 850 mb WAA and moisture convergence may fire a few thunderstorms across southeastern Wisconsin during the afternoon hours, but confidence is lower due to a lack of significant trigger. Southerly winds and cloud cover may keep areas near Lake Michigan slightly cooler on Tuesday.

MH

LONG TERM
Issued 409 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Tuesday night through Sunday:

Low pressure lifts northward into Ontario by Tuesday night, with persistent thermal ridging over the Southeast U.S. keeping southern Wisconsin in primarily dry conditions through Tuesday night. As surface low pressure skirts the northern edge of the ridge into Wednesday, precipitation chances increase along a trailing frontal feature. Thunderstorm chances remain through the end of the week and into the weekend as a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico feeds moisture into the stalled boundary by way of the central Plains. Thermal ridging in the Southeast looks to become reinforced within a region of broad subsidence, preventing the boundary from propagating farther south. Uncertainty remains with the exact placement of the stalled boundary and therefore with timing and intensity of precipitation, but general cloudiness is expected to keep temperatures in the 80s from midweek onward.

MH

AVIATION
Issued 930 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Southwest winds with roughly 20 kt gusts expected this afternoon (hence, no lake breeze expected to reach lakeshore airports today), with south flow continuing tonight and becoming even gustier on Tuesday (25 kt gusts).

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop this afternoon, amounting to a roughly 20% rain chance. Cloud coverage would increase from scattered to broken in the vicinity of said storms, but cumulonimbus ceilings are likely to remain VFR (generally 4000 ft or higher) with said convection. A PROB30 group for thunderstorms may be needed in the next routine TAF issuance unless confidence decreases. Main concern would be brief downpours with visibility restrictions, locally gusty winds, and thunder. A patch of MVFR cigs cannot be ruled out, but is unlikely and would require repeated hits from thunderstorms in the same area.

Sheppard

MARINE
Issued 409 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Modest southerly winds will prevail through tonight. Low pressure lifting from the northern Plains into northwestern Ontario on Tuesday will then produce gusty southerly winds Tuesday through Tuesday night. Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible due to high winds and waves on Tuesday. Light southwesterly winds are then expected as the low continues to lift into the Hudson Bay, with a cold front slowly pushing southward across the lake Wednesday night into Thursday, shifting winds northeasterly.

Periods of thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, with slight chances on Tuesday morning. A few stronger thunderstorms may produce gusty winds this afternoon. Slight chances are expected again Tuesday afternoon across the southern half. Thunderstorms become more likely on Wednesday into Wednesday night across the open waters.

MH

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       HIDE   Help
Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
45187 11 mi50 minSSW 12G18 74°F 60°F0 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 11 mi60 minSSW 2.9G8.9 87°F 29.91
45186 13 mi50 minSE 9.7G12 76°F 64°F1 ft
45199 23 mi90 minSSE 9.7 64°F 61°F1 ft29.95
45174 30 mi60 minS 9.7G16 79°F 65°F1 ft29.9068°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 36 mi50 minSW 8.9G12 85°F
45013 43 mi60 minSW 7.8G12 77°F 60°F1 ft29.88
OKSI2 44 mi120 minN 1.9G4.1 89°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 45 mi40 minSW 17G19 91°F 75°F
45198 47 mi60 minSSW 9.7G12 78°F 67°F1 ft29.96
CNII2 48 mi30 minWSW 8.9G17 89°F 64°F


Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      HIDE   Help
toggle option: (graph/table)



Airport Reports
    EDIT      HIDE   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KENW
   
NEW Forecast page for KENW


Wind History graph: ENW
(wind in knots)
toggle option: (graph/table)


Tide / Current for
   
EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   HIDE   Help

Tide / Current for
   EDIT      HIDE   Help

Weather Map
      HIDE   Help


GEOS Local Image of great lakes   
EDIT   HIDE



Milwaukee, WI,




NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE