Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marblehead, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 6:01PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 5:36 PM EDT (21:36 UTC) Moonrise 7:49PMMoonset 9:27AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 349 Pm Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
.storm warning in effect from 10 pm edt this evening through Thursday morning...
Tonight..E winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, increasing to 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 55 kt after midnight. Seas around 8 ft, building to 15 ft after midnight. Patchy fog. Rain this evening, then rain with isolated tstms after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..SW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas around 14 ft, subsiding to 9 ft in the afternoon. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 4 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 349 Pm Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A gale center develops rapidly off the nj coast this evening and then tracks across the i-95 corridor of ct, ri and eastern ma tonight then across nh/me Thursday. E to se gales likely ahead of the storm followed by wnw gales winds Thu. Storm force gusts are possible tonight and Thu across the eastern ma waters. Diminishing nw winds Fri and Sat as high pressure builds over the east coast. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marblehead, MA
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location: 42.5, -70.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 162021
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
421 pm edt Wed oct 16 2019

Synopsis
A powerful coastal storm develops along the nj coast then moves
northeast across southern new england tonight into Thursday.

This will bring periods of very heavy rain and strong to perhaps
damaging winds to the region before exiting later Thursday.

Drier, though blustery and cooler weather continues into
Friday. Warming trend with dry weather for the weekend. More
active weather than looks to resume for early next week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
**strong to damaging winds possible tonight and Thursday**
**heavy rain tonight with localized 3-4" amounts possible**
a dynamic and powerful storm will cross southern new england
later tonight, bringing strong to damaging winds and periods of
heavy rainfall. A secondary low pressure may develop farther
offshore late tonight, but that will not change the expected
impacts very much.

This low pressure is anticipated to strengthen rapidly,
developing a steep pressure gradient as it does. Winds just
above a surface-based inversion, at about 1 km up, in most of
the guidance was 70-80 kt. With limited mixing tonight, the only
real process for tapping into this momentum will be trough
precipitation drag and isallobaric processes.

Winds will continue to increase from the E to SE overnight.

While there will also be a lull late tonight as winds shift to
be from the w, decided to keep headlines as simple as possible.

Wind advisories are now posted for just about all of southern
new england, with high wind warnings towards the east coast.

Further adjustments to these headlines are likely with later
forecasts as the details emerge further.

Decided to issue a flood watch for tonight across the interior.

Rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches are possible, with even higher
totals possible across the upslope regions of the worcester
hills and berkshires. Rivers should be able to handle this
amount of water, but if this all falls in less than 6 hours or
so, there could be poor-drainage flooding issues. Especially if
storm drains become clogged with leaves and other debris. The
heaviest rainfall will likely end before the Thursday morning
commute, although some rain remains possible north of the mass
turnpike.

Winds continue to diminish Thursday night as drier conditions
take hold across our region, especially after midnight.

As for convective threats, we expect a tremendous amount of
shear in the lower levels. Most of the high resolution-guidance
has helicity values in excess of 300 m2 s2. The key ingredient
which is missing will be convective instability, due to the time
of day. Will have to see if the strong vertical motion which
develops is enough to overcome that deficiency.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night
This low pressure departs off into the gulf of maine Thursday.

While the wind core aloft will be moving along, there will be
more efficient mixing as colder and dry air moves into our
region on the backside of this system. Wind headlines through
most of Thursday.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Highlights...

* blustery, cooler weather continues into Friday. Possible frost
Friday night?
* warming trend and drier for the weekend.

* active pattern resumes late weekend - early next week, though
with a high degree of uncertainty on which day(s) are more
unsettled than not.

Details...

Friday:
cyclone to affect much of new england over the next 24-36 hrs
looks to be centered over northeast me by early Friday per most
model guidance, weakening filling as it does so. Cyclonic flow
aloft should be maintained though will also be steadily losing
overall influence as we the day. That being said, presence of
continued 925- 700 mb thermal trough amid lightening northwest
flow and residual shallow moisture ... It gives a continued
cool, blustery day looks likely for Friday. Northwest gusts
25-35 mph still look possible during the day as lapse rates
steepen, albeit through a smaller mixing depth. Look for
variable amounts of cloud cover - tending closer to mostly
cloudy further north and less so further south and east - and
there might still be enough moisture to wring out sprinkles
north of route 2 but nothing significant. However, most areas
should see thinning cloud coverage later in the day. Highs in
the 50s.

By Friday night, we start to feel subsident effects of surface
ridging, with trends toward clearing skies and lightening nw
winds. Question remains on how quickly each of these occurs -
which will crucially affect lows. Though thermal advection
transitions toward neutral levels for the evening, could have
some frost freeze concerns to contend with in areas where the
growing season is still declared as active (e.G. Most areas
outside of the pioneer valley, northern worcester and northern
middlesex counties). Mos-based guidance usually is the coldest
in such radiational situations, temps close to the met-based mos
would bring a widespread frost, with even some sub-freezing
lows in western central ma and northern ct. Given uncertainty in
how quick NW gradient winds subside and on prospects for
clearing, will use a guidance blend as a starting point but give
some weight to some of the cooler MOS as well. Brings lows into
the mid upper 30s to low 40s.

Saturday to Sunday:
quiet weather pattern resumes for Saturday into a good part of
Sunday for most, with large surface ridge settling in and
eventually shifting east of the region. Warming trend to
temperatures as well with 850 mb temps rising to the upper
single digits celsius.

Deterministic models, however, diverge on handling of energy
coming out of the gulf of mexico later Sunday Sunday night. This
leads to questions greater forecast uncertainty for the
remainder of the period. NHC has designated an area of disturbed
weather over the southwest gulf of mexico with some tropical
development potential. Gfs ECMWF gem develop a low from this
area into the northern gulf early Saturday which takes a
decidedly miller-a analog storm track from there into the
coastal carolinas by Sunday. That's really about all that's
agreed upon, though, as the international guidance more or less
weakens and keeps the cyclone closer to the mid-atlantic coast
thru the weekend. On the other hand the GFS pulls the system
well offshore to at least a well-developed gale south of the
40n 70w benchmark - which would bring greater impact to our
coastal offshore waters with enhanced E ene flow and building
seas, with some showers toward the south coast, CAPE and
islands.

Will lean towards dry for the weekend until there's greater
consensus on the gulf coast system.

Early next week:
forecast uncertainty and spread in guidance for late Sunday
also affect the forecast into early next week.

Does look to be overall a pretty unsettled period, with an
amplified trough ridge pattern across the eastern two-thirds of
conus. Strong mid-latitude cyclone over the northern plains
Monday with a trailing cold front into the lower ms valley
should progress E neward into southern new england either
Tuesday or Wednesday, though which day(s) may have higher
chances than others remains uncertain. Used a model consensus
blend in this period until better certainty and agreement in
details become more evident.

Aviation 20z Wednesday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday night ...

tonight...

mainly ifr in periods of very heavy rain, with lifr at times.

Se winds up to 40 kt along the immediate east coast, including
cape cod and islands. Llws away from the coast where surface
winds not as strong. Isolated tsra possible 00z-09z southwest to
northeast.

Thursday...

MVFR ifr at daybreak trending toVFR MVFR with scattered
showers. Strong west winds developing around sunrise and
continuing thru the morning into the afternoon with gusts up to
40 kt possible except up to 50 kt possible CAPE cod and the
islands.

Thursday night...

mainlyVFR with areas MVFR across the higher terrain. Gusty
winds diminishing.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in TAF trends. Moderate
confidence in timing.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in TAF trends. Moderate
confidence in timing.

Outlook Friday through Monday ... Moderate confidence.

Friday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with local
gusts up to 30 kt.

Friday night:VFR. Breezy.

Saturday through Sunday night:VFR.

Monday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday night ... High confidence.

**powerful storm to impact the waters tonight into Thursday**
a powerful low pressure will move NE past the waters tonight
into Thursday. Expecting at least gale force winds on the
waters. There is enough of a risk for stronger winds across the
eastern coastal waters where an upgrade to storm warnings was
made. Very heavy rain will reduce vsby tonight into Thursday.

Rough seas across the outer coastal will make for dangerous
boating conditions for smaller craft.

While visibility improves Thursday, and there may be a brief
lull in wind speeds, expecting a shift to strong west winds,
although perhaps not as strong as the southeast winds tonight.

Decided to keep the headlines as simple as we could and focus on
the greatest threat.

Winds and seas continue to diminish Thursday night.

Outlook Friday through Monday ... Moderate confidence.

Friday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Slight chance of rain showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Wind advisory from 10 pm this evening to 6 pm edt Thursday for
ctz002>004.

Flood watch from 10 pm edt this evening through Thursday
morning for ctz002>004.

Ma... Wind advisory from 10 pm this evening to 6 pm edt Thursday for
maz002>006-008>018-020-021-026.

High wind warning from 1 am to 5 pm edt Thursday for maz007-
019-022>024.

Flood watch from 10 pm edt this evening through Thursday
morning for maz002>005-008>012-026.

Ri... Wind advisory from 10 pm this evening to 6 pm edt Thursday for
riz001>008.

Marine... Storm warning from midnight tonight to 8 pm edt Thursday for
anz232-233-254-255.

Gale warning from 10 pm this evening to 9 pm edt Thursday for
anz230.

Storm warning from midnight tonight to 5 pm edt Thursday for
anz231.

Gale warning from 10 pm this evening to 8 pm edt Thursday for
anz236.

Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 4 am edt Friday for
anz235-237.

Gale warning from 10 pm this evening to 4 am edt Friday for
anz234.

Storm warning from 10 pm this evening to 8 am edt Thursday for
anz250-251.

Storm warning from 10 pm this evening to 8 pm edt Thursday for
anz256.

Synopsis... Belk loconto
near term... Belk
short term... Belk
long term... Loconto
aviation... Belk loconto
marine... Belk loconto


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 15 mi47 min ESE 18 G 21 56°F 58°F4 ft1009.7 hPa (-3.3)50°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 15 mi93 min SE 18 G 21 56°F 57°F3 ft1011.4 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 15 mi55 min 56°F 57°F1009.5 hPa
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 34 mi37 min ESE 22 G 24 56°F 1010.4 hPa (-3.4)49°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 39 mi52 min ESE 4.1 56°F 1012 hPa46°F
44073 40 mi93 min ESE 16 G 19 56°F
CMLN3 40 mi153 min E 11 56°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 42 mi29 min 58°F4 ft
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 43 mi47 min ESE 18 G 21 56°F 4 ft1011 hPa (-3.1)47°F

Wind History for Providence, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA7 mi44 minESE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F46°F72%1010.1 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA13 mi43 minESE 1810.00 miOvercast and Breezy58°F48°F70%1010.5 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA21 mi43 minE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy55°F46°F72%1011.1 hPa
Laurence G Hanscom Field Airport, MA23 mi46 minE 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy58°F46°F65%1011.1 hPa
East Milton, MA24 mi1.7 hrsE 12 G 21 mi54°F46°F75%1011.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBVY

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4CalmCalmS3SE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE8SE10SE12SE12SE11SE15SE14E10
1 day agoSE6SE8SE6S4CalmCalmNW6W3NW5NW4W5W5W5NW6NW6NW9NW11NW76
G15
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2 days agoSE3SE3CalmSE4SE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW33S6SE7SE6SE8SE7SE7SE8

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead, Massachusetts
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Marblehead
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:21 AM EDT     9.19 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:20 AM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:31 PM EDT     9.70 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:46 PM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.19.18.97.75.83.71.80.60.92.44.56.58.39.59.68.46.54.22.10.4-012.94.9

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Marblehead Channel
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:01 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:08 AM EDT     -0.34 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:32 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:43 AM EDT     0.45 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:19 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:28 PM EDT     -0.38 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:02 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:06 PM EDT     0.42 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.20-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.10.20.40.40.40.30.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.3-00.30.4

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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (17,4,5,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.