Sunday, July12, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Marblehead, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:16AMSunset 8:22PM Sunday July 12, 2020 1:47 AM EDT (05:47 UTC) Moonrise 12:13AMMoonset 12:40PM Illumination 57% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 116 Am Edt Sun Jul 12 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Rest of tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 4 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers in the evening.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Am Edt Sun Jul 12 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High seas and gusty winds will impact mostly the south coast and outer eastern waters through Sunday night. A 'high surf advisory' will go be in effect between 8am to 8pm Sunday for surf zone waves between 5 to 6 feet. Additionally, those entering the water should be aware of dangerous rip currents. A cold front will cross the waters early Sunday and another cold front crosses the water Monday. Warm front lifts north on Wednesday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marblehead, MA
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location: 42.5, -70.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 120541 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 141 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

SYNOPSIS.

It will be hot again today, but a bit less humid. Scattered showers and thunderstorms return on Monday afternoon and Tuesday. High pressure then brings fair weather for Wednesday and possibly Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms return on Friday and Saturday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/.

140 AM Update .

Very muggy early this morning with temperatures still in the lower to middle 70s. Although it was dry, low clouds covered much of the region with patchy fog along the south coast. We actually should see low clouds and fog scatter out in many locations in the next several hours. This a result of veering low level winds allowing a little bit of drier air to mix down.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/.

230 PM Update:

Sunday:

Shortwave trough will be moving into northern New England on Sunday. A related fairly weak surface low will move through the St. Lawrence Valley, with troughing extending down into northwestern MA and the Berkshires. High pressure should maintain itself over southeastern New England.

Sunday should be another very warm day and while dewpoints are lower it will still feel quite muggy again. Once the sun comes out to erode any residual stratus from overnight, looking at mostly sunny conditions and it should also become fairly breezy for a typical mid- July day. Gusts to 25 mph not out of the question with strong heating allowing for mixing to occur. A few higher res models simulate isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms near the weak trough axis over northwest into north-central MA. Better large-scale support for storms looks north of our area, instability looks to be less than prior days due to slightly lower dewpoints, weak lift/convergence and dry air in the mid-levels should keep most storms fairly isolated if any develop at all. Wouldn't necessarily cancel any plans but certainly keep an eye to the sky if in towns north and west of a Worcester to Springfield line. Highs will again top out in the lower 90s in the interior, though slightly lower dewpoints due to mixing and some downsloping should keep heat indices from reaching Advisory levels.

Sunday Night:

Any thunderstorms which may have developed across western into north- central MA should dissipate after sunset. A brief period of shortwave ridging and dry weather then resumes for most of the overnight. However late in the overnight into the pre-dawn hours, 500 mb heights again start to fall as the next shortwave trough moves through east-central PA into southern NY. While low-levels are stable, seasonably-strong 850-500 mb WSW flow advects in some modest elevated instability into early Monday morning across northern CT, northwest RI into western and central MA (Showalter indices -1 to -2 units, associated with 6-6.5 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates). Though timing remains a question - it could be more focused into Monday morning as opposed to very late Sunday night - the potential exists for early-morning thunderstorms in the Springfield-Hartford to Worcester corridor. While it is the exception and not the rule, an upper-end outcome could feature thunderstorms with small sub-severe hail given MUCAPEs increasing to around 500-900 J/kg. Otherwise, still a muggy evening ahead with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/.

Big Picture .

High pressure in control coast-to-coast across the Southern USA. One trough moves across New England Monday and Tuesday, followed by a weak ridge Wednesday. Another shortwave trough based in Canada moves across the Nrn Tier of the USA, crossing New England Thursday or Friday.

Height contours at 500-mb, reflecting the deep layer, are forecast near normal Monday-Tuesday, trending above normal the remainder of the week. Surface high pressure passing north of the region midweek may generate a low-level easterly flow that would buffer the warming trend, but the high pressure moves east and the surface flow returns to a west-southwest direction late in the week.

Mass fields are similar through Thursday morning, then show differences in handling the late week trough. Confidence is moderate- high through Thursday, then lower confidence Friday-Saturday.

Daily details .

Monday-Tuesday .

A leading shortwave trough sweeps across Srn New England Monday, supporting a surface cold front that crosses the region late in the day or evening. An associated 100-kt jet in the southwest upper flow moves across New England with Srn New England under the right entrance region of the jet, supporting lift. The airmass will be unstable with LI of -3 to -5 and CAPE of 1000-1500 J/Kg. And 0-3 Km Helicity will be around 100. Expect showers and scattered t-storms with the front. PW values are forecast around 1.9 inches, so local downpours are also expected.

The main trough axis sweeps overhead late Monday night and Tuesday, cooling temps at 500 mb by 2-3C from Monday. CAPE of 500 J and LI of minus 1 to minus 2 extend south into Eastern MA during Tuesday. This may be enough to generate scattered showers/thunder Tuesday, with most favorable conditions in Eastern MA. PW values diminish to 1.3 inches, so less favorable for downpours.

Wednesday-Thursday .

High pressure builds south from Quebec, and combined with a shortwave upper ridge this should bring rain-free weather and lower dew points. The surface high remains centered to our north, which suggests an east flow over the region and cooler temperatures along the eastern coast.

Friday-Saturday .

The next shortwave approaches from the Great Lakes, but timing remains in question due to the variety of model timings. Expect increasing instability with LI falling to near -5 by Saturday and CAPE increasing to near 2000 J/Kg. PW values climb to 2 inches. The question remains whether the convection reaches Srn New England Friday, or waits until Saturday. When it arrives, expect scattered showers and thunder, with local downpours.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

06Z Update .

Today . High confidence. VFR today after lingering lower clouds/fog patches scour out by 12Z. SW wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots develop by afternoon.

Tonight . High confidence. VFR with light SW winds.

Monday . Moderate confidence. While VFR are expected much of the time, scattered showers & thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon. A few of the thunderstorms may become strong and produce localized torrential rainfall. This will result in locally much lower cigs/vsbys.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/ .

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. Patchy BR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Patchy BR.

Wednesday: VFR.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Patchy BR.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE. Tonight through Sunday Night: High confidence.

Small craft advisories remain in effect for all waters due to southerly winds 25-30 kt and/or seas over 5'. Winds should subside early this evening across Boston Harbor and Narragansett Bay. However SCA conditions then continue through Sunday afternoon, with SW gusts in the 20-25 kt range and longer period 5-6' seas. Areas of low clouds and fog again set in for most waters tonight.

The High Surf Advisory ended at 6 PM today. Given the continued long-period southerly swell and the continued threat for rip currents, a new High Surf Advisory has been issued for Sunday from 8 AM to 8 PM for much of the RI and MA South Coast.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/ .

Monday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . High Surf Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020-023-024. RI . High Surf Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for RIZ006>008. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.

SYNOPSIS . WTB/Loconto NEAR TERM . Frank SHORT TERM . Loconto LONG TERM . WTB AVIATION . Frank/WTB MARINE . WTB/Loconto


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 15 mi57 min SSE 7.8 G 7.8 69°F 68°F2 ft1003.1 hPa (-0.9)69°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 15 mi103 min S 12 G 14 68°F 4 ft1001.8 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 15 mi53 min 77°F 71°F1002.6 hPa
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 34 mi47 min SSE 21 G 22 69°F 1002.7 hPa (-1.3)69°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 39 mi62 min SE 1.9 74°F 1003 hPa73°F
44073 40 mi103 min SSE 16 G 18 71°F 67°F
CMLN3 40 mi163 min SSE 8.9 69°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 42 mi42 min 65°F4 ft
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 43 mi57 min S 9.7 G 12 68°F 3 ft1004.7 hPa (-1.5)68°F

Wind History for Providence, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA7 mi54 minS 710.00 miOvercast76°F72°F88%1002.6 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA13 mi53 minSSW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F70°F84%1003.7 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA21 mi53 minS 810.00 miA Few Clouds78°F71°F79%1003.2 hPa
Laurence G Hanscom Field Airport, MA23 mi56 minS 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F71°F82%1004 hPa
East Milton, MA24 mi56 minS 14 G 21 mi73°F70°F90%1004.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBVY

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW3S3S5S4CalmS3S4455S9SE11SE10E10E11SE10E7E8E8E7E8SE9SE12
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2 days agoSW7SW4SW5CalmCalmW5W63N6CalmSE7SE8SE8SE11SE8SE12SE8SE5S7S5S3S4SW5SW4

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead, Massachusetts
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Marblehead
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:07 AM EDT     8.63 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:16 AM EDT     0.96 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:39 PM EDT     8.59 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:31 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:44 PM EDT     1.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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23.34.86.588.68.27.15.43.61.911.32.43.85.57.28.48.57.86.44.83.11.8

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Marblehead Channel
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:13 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:33 AM EDT     0.34 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:06 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:36 AM EDT     -0.34 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:58 PM EDT     0.36 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:37 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:31 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:05 PM EDT     -0.35 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.10.20.30.30.30.20-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.20.10.30.30.40.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.