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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 338 Pm Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. Rain. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds to 30 knots becoming west and diminishing to 15 to 20 knots. Snow and rain showers during the day, then snow showers likely Monday night. Waves 7 to 10 feet building to 10 to 13 feet, then subsiding to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. A chance of rain showers Tuesday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
the water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 090731 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 231 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

SYNOPSIS
Much warmer temperatures are expected across the region into Sunday. Dry weather is expected into this evening before rain returns to the region late tonight. Sunday and Sunday night will see a strong storm bring heavy rain and strong winds. Rain transitions to snow Sunday night, ending Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Only minor changes raising the temperatures slightly with the midnight update.

1000 PM Update...

No major changes to this update; near-term forecast remains on track.

630 PM Update...

No major changes to the near-term forecast. Adjusted the progression of precipitation chances for evening, by slowing it down a couple of hours. Near-term forecast remains on track.

230 PM Update...

A broad ridge of high pressure is currently sitting across the eastern US, with the ridge axis splitting the CWA in two. WSW flow from this ridge is advecting in much warmer air than we have seen in the past several days. Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the mid 40s to low 50s. Current clear skies will become cloudy this evening and overnight as the ridge axis slides eastward and a broad cloud deck moves overhead. WAA continues through the overnight hours, especially across the Finger Lakes region. Lows in the upper 20s to low 30s are expected across NEPA and the Catskills with mid 30s to low 40s across the Southern Tier into Oneida county.

SW flow really kicks WAA into high gear Saturday as we sit on the leading edge of an upper level trough moving into the Great Lakes region from the Great Plains. Cloudy skies will persist, but temperatures will rise into the upper 40s to mid 50s, with valleys west of I-81 having a good chance at seeing some upper 50 readings. During the afternoon hours, winds across the Finger Lakes into the higher elevations south of the Mohawk Valley will increase to 15-18kts with gusts to 25kts through the overnight hours. Continued WAA is expected overnight with the strong SSW winds. Temperatures will fall into the mod 30s to low 40s across NEPA and the Catskills, with mid 40s across the rest of CNY.

Rain showers should begin to move into the western portion of the CWA late Saturday evening, slowly moving eastward as the night progresses. The Finger Lakes into Oneida County should see between 0.10-0.30 inches through 12z Sunday. Areas east of I-81 will get up to a tenth of an inch of rain.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A very sharp and deep trough will be moving into the Great Lakes and Mississippi Valley Sunday morning, with an associated cold front moving into western NY/PA by daybreak. Steady, light rainfall will develop ahead of the front and should be ongoing across most of Central NY and NEPA by mid-morning. Strong SSW flow in the low levels will lead to deep moisture transport, with moderate to locally heavy rainfall developing by early Sunday afternoon as a shortwave trough moves up ahead of the main trough. The chances for heavier rainfall will mainly be east of I-81, and favoring south facing slopes of higher terrain areas in the Catskills and Poconos.

Sunday night, the cold front will push east of the Hudson Valley, as a deeper surface low tries to develop off the NJ coast. Precip behind the front looks to get a boost as a band of 850-700mb frontogenesis develops along a tight low level thermal gradient, enhancing QPF over the headwaters of the Susquehanna and Delaware Rivers, just as deeper colder air filters into the area. Rain will change over to snow late Sunday night into Monday morning. The timing of the changeover will be critical in determining snowfall accumulations. If we can get the colder air in before the heavier precipitation moves out, snowfall accumulations will be higher. At this time, it appears most areas will see 1 to 3 inches very late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, with 3-6 inches possible over higher terrain areas east of I-81, and especially closer to the Catskills.

Before the changeover...Liquid QPF amounts of 2 to 3 inches will be sufficient for localized flooding, again favoring areas near and east of I-81, and especially the Catskills and Poconos. Runoff into area streams and rivers could push a few into minor flood stage by Monday morning.

As usual, lake effect snow bands will take shape in the wake of the system Monday afternoon, with the potential for accumulating snow along and north of the Thruway corridor heading into Monday evening.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
230 am update...

Monday night a brief shot of lake effect snow off Lake Ontario on northwest winds. There should be a few inches of snow for Onondaga, Madison and Oneida. On Tuesday ridging shifts the winds to the west giving the entire area a dry day.

Tuesday night to Thursday a series of weak short waves brush the area. Some snow showers will be possible with light amounts again in the north. Moisture is limited but cold air advection Wednesday will help with some lake enhancement. This period lows will be in the 20s with highs in the 30s.

Starting Friday ridging starts aloft and at the surface. Drier and warmer air moves in. Highs in the 40s. This weather should continue into Saturday.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
1220 am update...

VFR will continue through 06z Sunday.

Winds will be southeast to south at 10 kts or less.

Outlook...

late tonight...becoming MVFR/IFR. Rain starting around 12z.

Sunday...MVFR-IFR with rain.

Sunday night...IFR or lower. Rain changing to snow. Strong gusty winds.

Monday...Restrictions likely with lingering snow showers and strong gusty NW winds.

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR-MVFR depending on lake effect showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for NYZ045-046-056-057-062.

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