Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Farmington Hills, MI

AVIATION

Passage of a warm front to lock southwest flow in place through the day with some sporadic gusts around 20 knots possible during daylight hours, favored more across KFNT-KMBS. Boost in moisture behind the front will aid in the production of a SCT to BKN (BKN favored) cu deck this afternoon. There remains a low end chance for an isolated pop up thunderstorm represented by a PROB30 group across the metro terminals through KPTK. The overnight period is of much higher uncertainty regarding shower and thunderstorm chances, but there is a signal for an areas of weak convergence that extends into SE MI during the early morning hours which could produce precipitation, but that will be contending with waning instability.

For DTW/D21 Convection...There is a slight chance (~25%) for an isolated thunderstorm favored in the evening hours.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceilings aob 5kft this morning

* Low for thunderstorms between 21z-00z Tuesday.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 457 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

DISCUSSION...

Deeper southwest flow kicks in today and will inject more warm and moist air into Michigan. Temperatures at 850 mb climb to around 17C, which will support a rather warm day with high temperatures into the upper 80s. The extra moisture will also make for a very muggy day as mid to upper 60s dewpoints lift into southeast Michigan. A mid/upper wave with associated surface low pressure will be tracking northeast out of Lake Superior across Ontario throughout today. This will draw a cold front across Lake Michigan this morning and into central lower Michigan this afternoon and evening. Instability ahead of this front will be formidable SBCAPE to around 1000 J/kg, but deep layer shear will be lacking greatly. Many CAMs are not generating much in the way of convection through this afternoon as the front approaches southeast Michigan. Will maintain the inherited ~25 pct PoPs given the available instability and presence of the front. Timing is focused across Saginaw Valley/Thumb and perhaps down to the I-69 corridor this afternoon into the early evening. Confidence is not high for this activity. Any convection that is able to develop would be more pulse type convection given the lack of shear and any strong updrafts that can gain traction would be capable of isolated strong winds.

Cold front is expected to stall out across southern lower Michigan late this evening providing a focus for the next round of convection. The activity late this evening/tonight will have better PV advection driving a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms into southwest lower Michigan that may eventually follow along the front into southeast Michigan. Models maintain some instability while deep layer shear becomes better tonight. PoPs of 25 to 30 pct look good for now. Expectation is for this activity to be sub-severe, but may require some monitoring.

Greatest focus remains on Wednesday into Wednesday night and the potential for severe weather including damaging winds, large hail, heavy rain, and tornadoes. Frontal boundary will again be the focus for convection through Wednesday as a potent shortwave and a deepening surface low tracks along the front through central Lower Michigan some time Wednesday evening. There remains some differences in timing of the low and placement of the frontal boundaries, but several models are converging on the more bullish outcome in regards to severe weather. The stalled frontal boundary will lift northward as a warm front preceding the low during the day. A very moist (dewpoints to 70 degrees/PWATs > 1.75 inches), unstable (MLCAPE 1000- 1500 J/kg/SBCAPE 2000+ per RAP), and favorably sheared environment (40-50 knots of 0-6km bulk shear/20-30 knots of low level shear/curved low level hodographs) will be in place in the warm sector. The 00Z suite of CAMs remain split on Wednesday afternoon activity along the warm front as the nose of the 50-60 knot LLJ impinges on the CWA Any activity that can initiate along the warm front will be worth monitoring for severe potential. The greatest severe threat lies late Wednesday afternoon and evening as the surface low tracks across central Michigan with the anticipated line of strong to severe thunderstorms on the prefrontal trough if instability remains available into the evening. All hazards will be in play with current timing of greatest threat window based on CAM solutions some time between 23Z and 04Z. Damaging wind impacts, QLCS tornadoes, and heavy rainfall will be the greatest threats with Wednesday evening activity.

Thunderstorm potential continues on Thursday as ascent remains present with the arrival of the main longer wave trough. Then a brief break in precipitation chances during the day Friday before ridge riding MCS potential comes into play Friday night in Saturday, though trends have been more to the north with latest guidance.
Strong ridge of high pressure then builds into region resulting in hot and very muggy conditions with high pushing above 90 degrees and above for the weekend.

MARINE...

A low pressure system is tracking from northern Minnesota across the northern Great Lakes this morning, pulling a warm front up through the region. This will lead to southerly winds today generally holding below 20 knots. The offshore flow should also minimize any increased wave potential. A second low will pass over lower MI an d Lake Huron on Wednesday bringing the potential for a round of strong to severe thunderstorms across the region Wednesday afternoon into the overnight. Active pattern could continue through the end of the week with a cold front stalling across northern MI Thursday and another low Friday night or Saturday.

HYDROLOGY...

Gulf moisture feed pushing PW values near daily records offers heavy rain/flooding potential with storms Wednesday and Wednesday evening.
Soundings show warm cloud depths of 12-15kft throughout the day increasing precip efficiency with any preceding showers/storms along the front daytime Wednesday as well as convection with the low itself late day. One additional point of concern that will need to be watched in coming model cycles is some signal amongst model solutions supporting training convection during the day along the frontal boundary before the arrival of the low which could boost overall QPF. Average rainfall totals over the course of Wednesday will be 0.75-1.50 inches with locally higher totals possible.
Stronger storms and/or repeated rounds of thunderstorms will be capable of a quick 1-2 inches in a 1-3 hour window. This brings with it flooding concerns, especially if higher intensity rainfall impacts urban areas.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.