Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Farmington Hills, MI

AVIATION

Northern Great Lakes low pressure and a weak reinforcing cold front continue the flow of cool and cloudy air into Lower Mi tonight and Sunday. This results in borderline VFR/MVFR ceiling this evening trending farther down into MVFR late tonight and Sunday morning. The inbound cool air also maintains a gusty W-NW wind although settling down closer to 20 kts. No obstructions to visibility are expected as lingering shower potential has light intensity. Broken to overcast ceiling holds Sunday afternoon while building into low end VFR below 5000 ft into Sunday evening.

For DTW/D21 Convection...No thunderstorms tonight through Sunday.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling 5000 feet or less tonight and Sunday.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 319 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025

DISCUSSION...

Cool (850 mb temps in the mid-single number) cyclonic flow with the large upper-level low-pressure system supporting scattered light showers this afternoon, along with gusty westerly winds around 35 mph. The 500 mb low is tracking east and is expected to reach northern New England tomorrow morning. Sufficient low clouds and wind tonight should hold temps up in the uppers 40s. A dry Sunday looks to be on tap as weak 500 mb shortwave ridging develops. Maxes will be dependent on what happens to the low clouds and whether or not they mix out fast enough. Planning on going fairly pessimistic and keeping clouds in through the bulk of the day, and will keep highs around 60 degrees, in line with MAV guidance.

A shortwave will track through the northern Great Lakes Sunday evening/night, with aggressive upper level northwest confluent flow following its passage for Monday. This will assure another dry day as surface ridging extends from strong high pressure over Hudson Bay.
Good chance dry conditions hold for much of Tuesday. However, another large low pressure systems will be developing over the Central Plains as abundant Pacific upper-level energy comes ashore and tracks through the Rockies. Moisture surging out of the Gulf will add to the Pacific moisture advancing northward; however, the axis (pw values of 1.5-2 inches) looks to be folding over by Tuesday after reaching just north of the Ohio River.

12z Euro ensembles indicating a tight south to north rain shield/tenth of an inch or more QPF gradient over southern Lower Michigan for Tuesday evening-Wednesday, with greater than 60 percent chance south of I-69. Still sorting out the timing of the retrograding trough over Eastern Canada and expected merger over the Great Lakes region during the mid-week period.

MARINE...

Central Great Lakes remain under the influence of a respectable mid- May low pressure system sliding east over the St Mary's river.
Ongoing westerly cold advection keeps winds on the breezier side through the night with gusts holding near 25-30kts. Small craft advisories have been extended to Sunday morning for all waters as a result. Low begins to peel away from the region Sunday leading to a gradual wind shift to the northwest as well as a reduction in strengths towards 15-20kts as weak high pressure follows. Broad Plains low pressure reaches the mid-Mississippi late Monday-Tuesday shifting local winds to the northeast. Strongest winds expected over the Saginaw Bay due to the longer fetch and shoreline funneling where gusts could reach or exceed 30kts. Low passes over the Ohio Valley Tuesday night-Wednesday bringing shower chances, mainly over the southern half of the region. Unsettled weather looks to persist through late week as upper level troughing settles over the Great Lakes.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ421-422-441>443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ444.