Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pleasant Prairie, WI

SHORT TERM
Issued 416 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Today through Tuesday:

Quiet weather will continue today under high pressure. High clouds are likely to move in from the south today in advance of approaching low pressure. Above normal temps are expected today most places, except for near normal conditions near the lake.

The broad upper low and associated weak surface low will continue to approach from the south tonight into Tuesday. This will bring increasing moisture into southern Wisconsin, along with a chance for showers and a few storms. The best chance for showers and storms will be during the afternoon hours Tuesday, as daytime heating will kick off some convection. Onshore winds will limit activity in the east due the the more stable airmass from the cooler lake. Showers should wind down by early evening as daytime heating is lost. Nudged high temps down a bit Tuesday due to higher confidence in mostly cloudy conditions much of the day.

DDV

LONG TERM
Issued 416 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Tuesday night through Sunday:

Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to bring the closed 500 mb low centered over Kentucky Tuesday evening northeastward and opens up into more of a trough on Wednesday. Continued chances (20 to 35 percent) for showers are forecast, with the better chances Wednesday with daytime heating. Weak but steady southeast winds should bring higher dewpoints into the 50s to perhaps lower 60s by Wednesday afternoon, so it will feel more humid and allow for increasing mean layer CAPE and some thunderstorms to occur.
Weakly sheared environment may allow for some hail and brief gusty winds Wednesday afternoon.

Ensembles continue to suggest that the warm period of temperatures linger through Thursday across the area, as an anomalous 500 mb ridge shifts east of the Great Lakes region.
Highs should exceed 80 degrees Fahrenheit across inland areas for Wednesday, with onshore winds keeping lakeshore areas cooler.
Small spreads in the ensemble guidance indicate a relatively high confidence (greater than 70 percent) in these warm temperatures occurring.

The warmest day appears to be Thursday, with middle 80s expected inland and perhaps upper 80s with enough sunshine. Humid conditions with dewpoints into the lower 60s will linger. Still looks cooler near the lake with southeast winds. There may be some low clouds and fog over and near the lake at times Tuesday night into Thursday, with the higher dewpoints over the cool lake waters.

A closed and deepening 500 mb low should shift east northeastward across the northern Plains into the Western Great Lakes region Thursday into Friday. There looks to be a negatively tiled shortwave trough with this 500 mb low that shifts northeast across the region Thursday afternoon and evening. This should help bring a cold front northeast through the region Thursday or Thursday night. There is some uncertainty in the timing of these features.

This should bring a better chance (40 to 60 percent) for more organized showers and thunderstorms, as supported by increasing numbers of ensemble members with measurable precipitation from the ECE/GEFS. There should be more robust mean layer CAPE and bulk shear values as well, so there look to be strong to severe storm potential along and ahead of the front. Machine learning models continue to indicate severe potential during that period across the region with the frontal passage. SPC has the area in 15 percent severe probabilities for Thursday into Thursday night, so will need to continue to monitor and possibly start messaging this potential.

Gusty southwest winds may occur after the front moves through Thursday night and linger into Friday, as the main 500 mb low shifts across or just north of the area. A secondary cold front may pass through the region Friday or Friday night/Saturday, with continued chances (20 to 30 percent) for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Trends in this period are more uncertain, but ensembles are still showing some members with measurable precipitation. Temperatures look to drop to more seasonable values Friday into next weekend per ensemble trends.

Wood

AVIATION
Issued 416 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Quiet weather will continue today under the influence of high pressure exiting to the east. Light southeast winds will prevail most places, with winds more easterly near the lake. High clouds are expected to move in from the south through the day.
There may be a few showers by later tonight, as low pressure approaches from the south. A few models are also suggesting the potential for some lower clouds later tonight into Tuesday. Not out of the question for some reduced visibilities in the east as well, given increasing low level moisture and onshore winds off the chilly lake.

DDV

MARINE
Issued 416 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

South to southeast winds across the lake today should become more east to northeast across the southern half of the lake, as high pressure around 30.3 inches remains well east of the region.
Winds should then become southeast across the entire lake tonight, shifting to the east Tuesday into Wednesday, as weak low pressure around 29.8 inches approaches southern Lake Michigan from the Ohio Valley. A few thunderstorms are also possible during this period, mainly over southern portions of the lake.

There may be some fog over the lake at times Tuesday night into Thursday, with the higher dewpoints moving over the cool lake waters.

A larger area of low pressure around 29.4 inches will form in the northern Great Plains Wednesday night, crossing over or north of Lake Superior Thursday night or Friday. This will lead to increasing southeast winds across the open waters through Thursday afternoon. Gales are not expected at this time, though trends will be monitored in the coming forecasts. Small Craft Advisory conditions may occur for the nearshore waters Thursday into Thursday evening.

More widespread thunderstorm potential will accompany the passing low and cold front, with the best chances Thursday evening and night. Some storms may become strong to severe during this period.
Gusty southwest winds behind the front Friday into Friday night may occur, becoming west on Saturday. It is too early to tell if gales are possible during this period, but Small Craft Advisory conditions may occur for the nearshore waters.

Wood

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.