Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Twin Lakes, WI

SHORT TERM
Issued 257 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Tonight through Monday night:

Scattered showers continue to linger for areas mainly west of Madison, helped along by a nearly stationary 500 mb vorticity maximum/shortwave trough, weak 850 mb warm air advection and deep moisture. This activity should slowly rotate but remain nearly stationary into early this evening in this area. There could be a few storms that develop with peak heating and weak instability, before the activity gradually weakens this evening.

Otherwise, middle to high clouds should linger into the evening for western and northern parts of the area, with breaks to the southeast of there. There may be some scattering out of the clouds tonight into Monday morning, though confidence is low in this happening.

There are some indications from the CAMs that another 500 mb shortwave trough approaching the area later tonight into Monday morning may help bring more showers and a few storms to western portions of the area. It is a similar situation to the current activity, though there may be a little more instability to work with. Kept 20 to 30 percent chances for showers, with 20 percent chances for storms, in the forecast for areas west of Madison during this period.

Kept 20 percent chances for showers and storms for mainly south central Wisconsin Monday afternoon, as more mean layer CAPE develops within weakly sheared environment, though lacking any sort of upward vertical motion besides some weak warm air advection. Highs into the middle 80s are expected inland, with a southeast lake breeze keeping 70s closer to Lake Michigan. It will feel more humid, with dew points into the middle 60s.

CAMs are hinting at the possibility of an MCS or decaying MCS shifting southeast toward and into the northwestern parts of the area Monday evening into the overnight hours. Models seem to be speeding up the approach of the cold front during this time, which initiates convection from north central Wisconsin into the Twin Cities area and southwest of there.

CAMs are showing a gradual weakening of the convection, as the area is more capped but still fairly unstable to elevated parcels. Deep layer bulk shear is only around 20 knots, but the cold pool dynamics with the MCS may be enough to keep it going into the northwest parts of the area Monday night.

Still uncertain with what exactly may occur, as there is not much else besides the front for upward vertical motion to help along the convection. Added 20 to 50 percent PoPs, highest in the northwest parts of the area, for Monday night. Too early to tell if any strong/severe storms would affect the area, given the potential for weakening by the time it gets here.

Wood

LONG TERM
Issued 257 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Tuesday through Sunday:

The cold front is now shown to move southeast into the area Tuesday afternoon and perhaps stall near or just south of the Illinois border area Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Models are bringing a surface low with a little cyclogenesis northeast along the frontal boundary Wednesday into and through the forecast area, or perhaps just to the southeast.

There is some differential CVA that moves through Tuesday afternoon and evening, with a better shortwave trough Wednesday afternoon and night. The low level jet does increase and points into northern Illinois Wednesday, helping with moisture transport into the region.

There is a good amount of instability that develops Tuesday ahead of the front, with deep layer bulk shear around 20 to 25 knots. The shear gets better on Wednesday, though instability may be more in question, if showers, storms and cloud cover linger into Wednesday and limit daytime heating. For now, will keep 60 to 90 percent PoPs for Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday, with thunderstorms at times during this period. Stronger storms may occur Tuesday afternoon and evening with the front, with Wednesday more in question with less instability but better dynamics. What occurs Tuesday into Tuesday night will affect Wednesday potential.

There is heavy rainfall potential as well during this period, with rounds of showers and storms along the stalled frontal boundary possible. We can take some rainfall, but could see some river rises and impacts to low lying areas if enough rainfall occurs.

More showers and storms may occur later in the week, as a warm front moves northeast through the region. Timing is uncertain at this point. South to southwest winds should then bring very warm and humid conditions into the region for next weekend into Monday, with ensembles showing highs well into the 80s or perhaps higher with dew points rising to around 70 degrees or more. Will need to monitor this period for possible heat impacts.

Wood

AVIATION
Issued 257 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Scattered showers continue to linger for areas mainly west of Madison and Janesville terminals. This activity should slowly rotate but remain nearly stationary into early this evening in this area. There could be a few storms that develop with peak heating and weak instability, before the activity gradually weakens this evening.

Otherwise, middle to high clouds should linger into the evening for western and northern parts of the area, with breaks to the southeast of there. There may be some scattering out of the clouds tonight into Monday morning, though confidence is low in this happening. Light east to southeast winds are expected into early this evening inland, with northeast to east winds for terminals near Lake Michigan.

There are some indications that more showers and a few storms may occur later tonight into Monday morning in western portions of the area, similar to the current activity. For now, will leave mention out of TAFs, but will monitor trends. Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds may develop by Monday afternoon. Light southeast winds tonight will become south on Monday. A southeast lake breeze is expected Monday for terminals near Lake Michigan.

Wood

MARINE
Issued 257 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

High pressure around 30.2 inches over eastern Ontario will keep generally north to northeast winds into this evening. Winds should then become south to southeast on Monday, as the high moves through the New England region. South winds should gradually increase Tuesday into early Wednesday, as low pressure around 29.7 inches approaches the region from the Central Plains. Chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast at times Monday through the rest of the week as well, with the better chances Tuesday into Wednesday night.

Wood

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.