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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 905 Am Cdt Sat Sep 23 2023
Rest of today..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots backing east late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..East wind 10 to 15 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots late in the evening, then becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots after midnight easing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Sunday..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots late in the morning, then backing east early in the afternoon easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..East wind 10 to 15 knots veering southeast early in the morning. Slight chance of showers through the night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and overnight.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 231509 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1009 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

UPDATE
(Issued 1004 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023)

The forecast largely remains on track this morning, save for a few lingering showers over our north central CWA. This activity will lift north with time and weaken late this morning as mid-lvl moisture dries out. The afternoon and evening hours should be quiet.

CMiller

SHORT TERM
(Issued 339 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023)

Today and Tonight: Challenge remains actual amount of mid level moisture that will remain over south central Wisconsin today. Most models continue to indicate drying in the lower to mid levels today into tonight.
Satellite imagery somewhat indicates otherwise with mid level cloudiness still streaming northward from Illinois and eastern Iowa, although starting to see more breaks in the cloud cover.
Will anticipate this trend through the remaining morning hours.

Fairly certain POPs will be at a bare minimum today, but still cannot rule out isolated showers if moisture remains, especially over the northwest sections of forecast area. Daytime heating could also help. More confident of no precipitation for the forecast area later this afternoon through tonight. Regardless, it will be warm on this first day of fall. Many will enjoy this fall equinox.

Surface flow largely remains southeasterly today into early Sunday as winds could be gusty at times near Lake Michigan.

KPL

LONG TERM
(Issued 339 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023)

Sunday through Friday: As mentioned in a previous forecast discussion, Sunday looks to be a battle of moisture gradient across southern Wisconsin. This is due to a northern plains trough of low pressure moving slowly east. There will not be much progress of this system Sunday into Sunday night, but energy and low and mid level moisture will make it back into the western sections of the forecast area. There will also be some difluent flow aloft, leading to widely scattered to scattered showers or thunderstorms beginning Sunday afternoon.
This should translate to at least widely scattered showers moving east Sunday night. All during this time, southern Wisconsin will remain warm with high relative humidity.

Monday will become more under the influence of aforementioned trough passage with cooler temperatures and additional cloud cover. In fact, airmass will be unsettled Monday and Tuesday with scattered showers over most of southern Wisconsin. Additionally, local surface winds should increase Monday night into Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday is still a little uncertain at this time as mid/upper level pattern transitions. It does look drier again with medium range models building heights aloft over Wisconsin and the Great Lakes. In other words, it should be warming back up over seasonal normals again, especially on Thursday and Friday.

KPL

AVIATION
(Issued 1004 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023)

A few showers and maybe a rumble of thunder will scrape the northern part of our CWA through the rest of the morning. KSBM may be in line for light showers, but there is a good chance this activity may dissipate before it reaches the TAF site. VFR conditions should persist into the afternoon as dry air works into southern Wisconsin, and skies clear. Southeast winds will breeze to 15 knots this afternoon.

CMiller

MARINE
(Issued 339 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023)

Little higher wind speeds along the lakefront of Lake Michigan today should be monitored for marginal beach hazards. These winds will be from the east to southeast through tonight. Will continue to watch observations, although current thinking is that they will mostly at or just below moderate swim risk. Otherwise, more sunshine later today followed by fair conditions tonight and early Sunday.

KPL

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

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