NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

ANZ331 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny To The Mouth Of The Connecticut River- 1212 Pm Edt Tue Oct 3 2023
Today..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 1 ft.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers.

ANZ300 1212 Pm Edt Tue Oct 3 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. High pressure over the region through Thursday will slowly weaken beginning Thursday night, and give way to an approaching frontal system on Friday. The associated cold front will pass through late Saturday into Saturday night.

FXUS61 KALY 031715 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 115 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will remain anchored over the region through Thursday with unseasonably warm and dry weather. A strong cold front will cross the region Friday night through Saturday with widespread rainfall and a much cooler air mass.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Another beautiful day is on tap today with much above normal temperatures rising well into the 70s to near 80 in the hill towns and higher terrain with low 80s in the Hudson and Mohawk Valley. Latest GOES16 water vapor satellite imagery shows an expansive ridge of high pressure covering much of the Eastern CONUS keeping the area dry and cloud free. The clockwise circulation around the sfc high pressure positioned in western PA and eastern Ohio will advect the anomalously warm air mass from Midwest up and over the ridge into the Northeast. This will usher in 850hPa isotherms close to +17C to +21C or 2.5 to 3.5 standard deviations above normal for early October. Despite such warm air aloft, boundary layer mixing on forecast soundings appear to be rather shallow given a lower subsidence inversion.
If we had deeper mixing (say up to 850-800hPa), we would be even warmer. Even still, high temperatures today will rise 15 to 20 degrees above normal and rival daily record high temperatures. See our climate section for daily records.

Dew points will be a bit higher than yesterday, rising into the upper 50s to towards 60 so it will feel warmer than yesterday.

Skies remain clear tonight promoting radiational cooling.
Temperatures will once again fall quickly during the early evening hours, then gradually fall overnight once they approach respective dewpoints. With increased low-level moisture and light to calm winds, patchy valley fog will likely develop again, some of which could be locally dense. Lows temperatures will drop into the 50s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Upper-level ridge will reach its peak intensity on Wednesday before slowly pushing to the east on Thursday. High pressure will also slowly shift eastward into Thursday as flow becomes more south- southeasterly. Dry weather will continue on both days. Wednesday may feature nearly full sun with a partly/mostly sunny day expected on Thursday. Low-level moisture will begin to increase Thursday night resulting in a trend toward a mostly cloudy sky by daybreak Friday.

Highs Wednesday will once again reach the lower to mid-80s across the valleys and the upper 70s to around 80 in the higher elevations. Record highs may be challenged on this day once again. During Wednesday night, a light southeast wind may be in place which will likely keep any fog formation to more localized, sheltered areas. Lows will dip into the mid-50s to lower 60s. Highs on Thursday will be a few degrees lower than on Wednesday due in part to the weakening of the ridge and an onshore flow in place. Still, many areas will rise into the 70s with a few valley locations around 80. A southeasterly breeze will be in place Thursday night along with the increase in clouds which should prevent fog from forming. Lows once again will only dip into the mid-50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A pattern change will occur during the long term period as a potent upper level trough heads towards the area for the weekend.

It will continue to be mild on Friday ahead of the approaching system with temps in the 70s, although there should be a fair amount of clouds across the region, as a deep southerly flow brings in plenty of moisture. There could be a few showers popping up by late in the day, but the better chance for precip looks to be Friday night into Saturday, as the better forcing gets closer to the area from the west. There are still some differences in the models regarding the exact timing, and this is due to when the upper level trough may cut off, if it takes on a negative tilt and if a surface wave develops along the boundary. As of now, the main consensus with the passing of the boundary looks to be late Friday night into Saturday morning, although this is certainly subject to change. With the high PWATs in place and strong forcing, there could be some heavy downpours right along the front, especially if a wave develops along the boundary. At this point, 00Z GEFS seems to suggest the best chance of over an 1.00" of rain in a 24 hr period would be for northern or eastern areas. Still, considering all the uncertainties still in place, will expect models to have some difficult placing where the heaviest QPF will occur, so it's rather low confidence if the heaviest precip will be in our area or off to the north or east. In addition, the strong dynamics could allow for some rumbles of thunder, although limited instability will be available due to the overnight or early morning timing of the front.

As the front crosses, cooler and less humid air will be moving in from the west. Despite being behind the front, it will continue to be damp, cloudy, with some additional showers (especially for lake- effect areas) for Sat night into Sunday, as the cyclonic flow occurs around the upper level low, which looks to close off and become a cutoff. Temps will only be in the 50s by Sunday (with even cooler temps over the high terrain). Cloudy and cool weather, with some additional showers in upslope and lake-effect areas, look to continue into early next week.

AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 18Z Wednesday...Widespread VFR conditions this afternoon will prevail through this evening as light westerly winds at ALB/POU/PSF and southerly winds at GFL diminish to calm conditions after 00Z Wed.

Clear skies are expected throughout the period, however the ideal radiational cooling environment will result in areas of fog and mist overnight. Have included IFR vsbys/cigs after 04-06Z Wed at GFL/POU/PSF where confidence is higher, but have maintained more conservative MVFR vsbys at ALB. Any fog will dissipate in the few hours following sunrise, by 13-14Z Wed, with light south to southeast winds developing at all terminals through the morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.

CLIMATE
Daily record high temperatures

October 3rd ALB 83 (1967)
GFL 82 (1898)
POU 83 (1995)

October 4th ALB 86 (1891)
GFL 80 (1951)
POU 86 (1941)

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Albany
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:56 AM EDT     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:34 AM EDT     4.32 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:04 PM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:55 PM EDT     5.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Albany, New York, Tide feet

Troy
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:07 AM EDT     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:42 AM EDT     4.32 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:14 PM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:03 PM EDT     5.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Albany, NY,