Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Castleton-on-Hudson, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1. Elevated risk for fire spread through this afternoon, with the greatest risk for areas mainly south and east of Albany.

2. Dry through Sunday morning before showers develop Sunday afternoon/evening for areas mainly along and north of I-90, continuing into Sunday night.

3. Well above normal temperatures arrive for the early to middle portions of next week, along with periodic chances for showers and some thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Gusty west to northwest winds will continue through this afternoon, with gusts of 25-35 mph in the Mohawk Valley, Capital District, Berkshires, mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. In addition, RH values will be in the 30-40 percent range for the same areas. Despite some light rainfall last night, fine fuels remain conducive for fire spread given the gusty winds and low RH. A Special Weather Statement is in effect for areas near the Capital Region and points south and east until 6 PM today for elevated risk of fire spread. Farther north and west, RH values will be higher, and also more rainfall occurred mitigating concerns there.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Dry conditions will prevail tonight through Sun morning into Sun P.M., as high pressure builds east across the area through tonight then shifts east off the coast Sun afternoon. Heights aloft will begin to rise, with low level flow turning southerly as well. Isentropic lift associated with a warm front approaching from the Great Lakes will bring some showers spreading from west to east. Latest guidance indicates best chances will be for areas along and north of I-90. Greatest PoPs(70-90%) Sun evening are across the Adirondacks, 50-70% along the I-90 corridor, and < 40% farther south. With increasing clouds and showers developing later on, it will be a cool day with highs expected to range from the upper 40s in the mountains to mainly lower/mid 50s in valleys. Showers will persist into Sun night for the same areas, although coverage will gradually decrease by early Mon morning as the warm front advances northward.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Main focus for the upcoming work week will be increasing potential for well above normal temperatures, although an oscillating front looks to result in some fluctuations and periodic chances for showers, especially for areas along and north of I-90. On Mon, a warm front will lift north of the region allowing for temperatures potentially warming into the upper 60s to lower 70s in most valley areas. Main question will be how much sunshine can occur, although even just a few breaks will result in substantial warming given warmth aloft (850 mb temperatures +8C to +11C). With fairly zonal flow flow aloft, a weak cold front will already be moving across the area Mon afternoon/evening. So a period of showers is likely, with the best chance from around Albany north. With an amplifying upper level pattern, the front is expected to lift back north as a warm front on Tue. This will likely send temperatures well above normal with 75-80F forecast from the Capital District south.
Will have to watch for potential convective showers/T-storms Tue P.M. associated with a pre-frontal trough with fairly flat flow aloft. Similar conditions expected on Wed as our area will still be in the warm sector. With increasing humidity levels(dewpoints 50s to lower 60s) along with the warmth, instability should be sufficient for isolated to scattered T-storms. NBM probs for SBCAPE > 500 J/Kg are 30-65% on Tue across much of the area and 30-60% on Wed from the Capital District south. However, probs for SBCAPE > 1000 are low at < 20% so the threat for severe storms looks fairly low at this time. Some storms could be on the stronger side with decent mid level flow aloft. Latest NBM probs for max temperatures > 80F are 30-55% on Tue in southern parts of the mid Hudson Valley into NW CT, 40-90% on Wed from around the Capital District south, and 30-80% on Thu in mainly the same areas. The record high Wed may be broken at Poughkeepsie. See Climate section for list of current records from Tue-Thu.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 18z Sunday...Skies continue to clear this afternoon as high pressure slides further east from the Great Lakes. As such, VFR conditions currently prevail across all TAF sites and will for the duration of the 18z TAF period. VFR ceilings this afternoon will gradually break this evening before skies clear for a period of time overnight. Clouds will begin to increase again around or just before daybreak through the end of this cycle as an upper- level disturbance approaches, but ceilings that develop will remain well within VFR thresholds. Breezy west to northwest winds this afternoon will also begin to wane this evening before becoming light and variable overnight. Sustained speeds of 10-20 kt this afternoon with paired gusts of 20-30 kt will give way to sustained speeds well below 10 kt tonight without gusts.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.