Monday, August26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Silver Creek, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 8:03PM Monday August 26, 2019 3:00 AM EDT (07:00 UTC) Moonrise 12:54AMMoonset 4:27PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ041 Dunkirk To Buffalo Along Lake Erie- 1031 Pm Edt Sun Aug 25 2019
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Clear late this evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers Wednesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers Friday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ041 Expires:201908260900;;214518 FZUS51 KBUF 260239 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1031 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ041-260900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Silver Creek, NY
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location: 42.54, -79.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 260524
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
124 am edt Mon aug 26 2019

Synopsis
Surface high pressure over new england will provide all of new york
with another dry day on Monday. A warm front will move across the
region on Tuesday and give far western new york a chance for some
rain, then a cold front will give all of western and central new
york chances for rain on Wednesday. Slightly cooler weather will
return behind the cold front on Thursday and Friday.

Near term through today
Ir satellite imagery showing the last of the stratocumulus drifting
into the bay of quinte region of southeast ontario, with clear skies
across our region. High thin cirrus will continue to drift into
western ny overnight. Some river valley fog will develop across the
western southern tier in the typical locations. Lows will drop back
into the 50s in most areas, with some mid to upper 40s in the cooler
southern tier valleys and east of lake ontario.

A huge longwave ridge is firmly established over the great lakes
region while an upper level trough moves into the plains. The ridge
is responsible for a large surface high pressure centered over the
northeast us.

On Monday, the cirrus shield should continue NE across wny and later
cny, with slowly increasing opacity with time. This should result in
mostly cloudy skies over and south of kbuf, but with less overall
cloud cover toward the eastern lake ontario region. But, the pesky
thin layer of moisture that's produced daily bouts of stratocumulus
over the past few days will have a harder time reforming with less
overall insolation and boundary layer mixing. The moisture will
still be there, but the increasing cirrus should provide just enough
shielding to prevent the resurgent low topped convection and
subsequent cloud formation. Meanwhile, slow but steady increasing
temperatures should result in highs increasing by ~5f from
persistence, or in the mid to upper 70s.

Short term tonight through Wednesday night
A warm front will approach from the west Monday night then cross the
area on Tuesday, as high pressure retreats eastward off the new
england coast. The majority of the area will remain dry Monday night
with the exception of late in the night when some showers may reach
far western ny. Strengthening warm advection along the nose of a 40
kt low level jet will move across western ny Tuesday. The best warm
air advection will be from the finger lakes west where there will be
some showers along the front on Tuesday. 12z model guidance is
slightly stronger with the low level jet, enough so that there may
even be gusty downslope winds near lake erie off the chautauqua
ridge late Monday night into Tuesday morning. There will be a wide
range in temperatures Monday night with lows in the lower to mid 50s
across the valleys of the southern tier and east of lake ontario.

However, an increasing sse flow will lead to downsloping near lake
erie where lows will only be in the lower to mid 60s. High
temperatures on Tuesday will be similar to Monday, however there
will be a noticeable uptick in the humidity, especially across
western ny, as dew points rise into the mid 60s.

A cold front will approach western ny Tuesday night and then slowly
move east across the forecast area during the day Wednesday. 12z
model consensus is slightly slower with the timing of this front.

The main threat with this front appears to be a period of heavy rain
just ahead of the boundary with pwat values rising to 1.75-2.00"
within a ribbon of deep moisture pooling just ahead of the cold
front on the leading edge of 30-40kt low level jet. Will keep just
the chance for thunder in the forecast as instability along the
front is marginal. Deep southerly flow combined with increased cloud
cover will keep low temperatures across most areas in the 60s
Tuesday night, with some upper 50s across the higher terrain east of
lake ontario. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 70s for
most areas, with some low 70s across the higher terrain.

The front will push east of the area by Wednesday night, with
showers and embedded thunderstorms ending from west to east
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The front will usher in cooler air
aloft with consensus 850mb temperatures dropping to around +10c by
late Wednesday night, and these will even be a bit cooler across
lake erie. The combination of lingering moisture from an upper level
trough and the cooler air may support limited lake effect showers
northeast of lake erie late Wednesday night.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
Lake effect rain showers may still be supported northeast of lake
erie Thursday morning as 850 mb temperatures continue to remain sub
+10c through 18z, with the upper level low continuing to slowly
shift to the east. Diurnal effects will end the lake effect
potential by Thursday afternoon, although a few cold core
showers can not be ruled out over interior sections during peak
afternoon heating.

Surface high pressure to our south will slide to the mid-
atlantic region bringing in warmer and drier air for Thursday
night into Friday. Thursday night looks dry and this trend may
last through the entirety of Friday, but both the GFS and ecmwf
start to stretch a cold front toward the region by late in the
day Friday.

Cold front will move through the region Friday night or Saturday.

Gfs is much more optimistic with mainly dry weather right through
Sunday, while the ECMWF develops a wave along the front suggesting
a much better potential for rain. Will trend the forecast more
toward the drier GFS and continuity at this point until model
consensus comes into better agreement.

Temperatures will not stray much from normal, with highs in the 70s
and lows in the mid to upper 50s through this period.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
Mainly clear skies will continue overnight through Monday morning
with just some thin high cirrus drifting across western ny. Typical
southern tier river valley fog will develop, with local ifr from
about 07z-13z. This is not expected to impact the kjhw terminal.

Once the valley fog burns off in the southern tier,VFR will prevail
on Monday. Model guidance still shows a layer of moisture centered
on 850mb across western ny, so expect a good deal of cumulus
development during the midday and afternoon from the genesee valley
westward, with bases around 5k feet.

The cumulus will mostly dissipate Monday evening, with high clouds
then thickening and lowering from west to east ahead of the next
system. A warm front will approach western ny after about 09z
Tuesday, bringing with it an increasing chance of showers. CIGS vsby
will likely remainVFR through 12z Tuesday as the low levels remain
unsaturated with the initial arrival of showers.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday... MainlyVFR with some short periods of
MVFR from showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday and Friday... MainlyVFR, some brief MVFR with showers
possible.

Marine
Relatively light and variable winds with corresponding light wave
action are expected into Monday as surface high pressure moves
slowly east across the region. A warm front will move through on
Tuesday, followed by a cold front on Wednesday. Winds will be
slowly veering from S to SW during this time, but overall should
remain below sca.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis...

near term... Hitchcock thomas zaff
short term... Apffel jm
long term... Tma
aviation... Hitchcock
marine... Zaff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 10 mi60 min SSE 6 G 8.9 63°F 1022.6 hPa (+0.0)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 12 mi54 min 60°F 1022.5 hPa
45142 - Port Colborne 15 mi60 min SSE 12 G 14 67°F 73°F1 ft1022.1 hPa (-0.0)
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 28 mi42 min E 2.9 G 5.1 62°F 75°F1023.1 hPa47°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 38 mi54 min 63°F 1023.2 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY6 mi67 minSSE 810.00 miFair63°F53°F70%1022.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDKK

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3NE4E4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE8SE7SE8E6E7SE11SE9SE9E5SE6SE6SE6E7SE8SE9SE8SE8
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE8NE7NE11
G15
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N10N8N9N7NE7NE3CalmNE6E4E3SE4CalmCalm
2 days agoNE3S3S3CalmCalmCalm3NE8NE8N9N11N11
G18
N11N10N8N9N7N6NE6NE8CalmNE6E4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.