Sunday, January19, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Silver Creek, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:41AMSunset 5:13PM Sunday January 19, 2020 5:00 AM EST (10:00 UTC) Moonrise 2:39AMMoonset 1:03PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ041 Expires:202001190415;;160397 Fzus51 Kbuf 182306 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 606 Pm Est Sat Jan 18 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez040-041-190415- Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 606 Pm Est Sat Jan 18 2020
.gale warning in effect through Sunday morning...
Tonight..Southwest gales to 40 knots becoming west. Rain early, then snow and rain late this evening. Snow after midnight. Waves 7 to 10 feet building to 10 to 14 feet. Waves occasionally around 18 feet.
Sunday..West gales to 35 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Lake effect snow. Waves 9 to 13 feet subsiding to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming north and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Lake effect snow in the evening, then lake effect snow showers likely overnight. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of snow showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LEZ041


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Silver Creek, NY
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location: 42.54, -79.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 190915 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 415 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

SYNOPSIS. A storm system to our north will move into New England today. This will result in a period of accumulating lake snows that will total over a foot in the lake snow belts. Cold weather is expected into early next week with scattered lake effect snow showers lingering.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Lake snows will continue to focus across the higher terrain east of the lake as the primary low level flow remains westerly through this morning. Cold air advection will send 850 mb temperatures to near -15C resulting in ample over-lake instability. Plenty of moisture available in a gradually increasing convective boundary layer with inversion heights nearing 10k feet. Fairly well aligned omega within favorable dendritic snow growth zone should support a period of decent snowfall rates. There should be a period of 1 to as much as 2 inches an hour generating daytime snowfall of 4 to 8 inches east of Lake Erie, with similar amounts likely east of Lake Ontario across the Tug Hill region. Outside of the main lake effect areas, any additional accumulations today will be minor and less than an inch.

Gusty winds will continue today, mainly during the morning, with areas closest to the lakeshores experiencing the strongest gusts to near 40 mph, with 30 to 35 mph elsewhere.

The boundary layer flow will veer to northwest later this afternoon and tonight as a secondary trough drops through. This should support fairly widespread snow shower activity. More organized lake effect snow off Lake Ontario will focus southeast of the lake from Rochester to western Oswego County. This area may see 2-4 inches of additional accumulation in the most persistent bands. Off Lake Erie, lake effect snow will continue to focus across the higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge. Additional accumulations of 2-4 inches are possible in the most persistent snows. Outside of the main lake effect areas, the trough may produce an inch or so accumulation. All of this will begin to diminish in intensity and areal coverage after midnight as deeper moisture departs.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Monday weak northwest flow lake effect will continue. there will be little left in terms of deep moisture or synoptic support, and inversion heights will lower steadily. This should only support light, disorganized lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes with minor accumulations. Another weak trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes Monday night through early Tuesday. This may support a continuation of light lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes, but overall marginal moisture and shallow inversion heights should keep this light with minor, spotty accumulations.

Temperatures will reach their coldest Monday and Monday night. Highs will be in the lower 20s in Western NY and teens east of Lake Ontario Monday. Lows Monday night will be in the teens across Western NY, and below zero east of Lake Ontario with less marine influence.

An area of high pressure will track from the mid Mississippi on Tuesday morning to the eastern portion of the Ohio Valley by Wednesday morning. As the area of high pressure tracks east, closer to the region, increased warm air advection starting Tuesday will continue through Wednesday morning. Warm air advection will increase 850H temps from around -12C on Tuesday morning to -7C over WNY and around -10C east of Lake Ontario by Tuesday evening. With temps aloft warming, any remaining lake response will continue to diminish, and just a chance of snow showers will be possible Tuesday evening northeast of Lake Ontario as winds shift to the west- southwest. Snow showers should be mostly done with by the late evening off of Lake Ontario, with some residual cloud cover remaining from a weak lake response.

Temperatures on Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 20s south of Lake Ontario and in the low to mid 20s east of Lake Ontario, with a few mid teen reading possible across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill. Lows Tuesday night won't drop much with increased warm air advection, and will be in the upper teens to low 20s south of Lake Ontario and in the teens across the North Country.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The second half of the workweek will much much quieter than the first half. The deep trough over the Great Lakes and New England will quickly depart Wednesday as strong height rises spread east across the U.S., and surface high pressure builds to the east coast. This will support a return to dry weather Wednesday through Thursday. Temperatures will warm rapidly as the cold pool aloft exits, replaced by 850MB temperatures warming above 0 C. This will support highs back in the lower 40s by Thursday and Friday across lower elevations.

The forecast becomes more uncertain again later Friday and especially Saturday. The overall upper air pattern across North America will remain quite warm in the mid latitudes, however a cutoff low will move east across the eastern third of the nation. This upper level low may have just enough cold air associated with it to bring winter weather back into play by Saturday.

Some previous model runs of the GFS and ECMWF were more aggressive in bringing warm air into the eastern Great Lakes Saturday, resulting in a rain event. The 12Z GFS/GEM, and especially the 12Z ECMWF are trending colder again for Saturday and Sunday, potentially setting the stage for accumulating wet snow across our region as the upper level low moves slowly from the Ohio Valley to the eastern Great Lakes Saturday through Sunday, eventually yielding to secondary coastal cyclogenesis later Sunday off the New England coast. This system is slow moving and should have a good deal of moisture associated with it, so it bears watching. For now introduced rain and snow into the forecast for next Saturday given temperature uncertainty.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Low end VFR or MVFR cigs with scattered snow showers will be found at the major TAF sites through tonight, while IFR to VLIFR vsbys in lake effect snow will be found at KJHW and possibly KART. Gusty winds will result in some blowing snow where snow showers are more persistent.

Outlook .

Monday . MVFR with IFR vsbys in lake snow across the Southern Tier and in a corridor between KROC and KSYR. Monday night and Tuesday . Mainly VFR, but MVFR in leftover lake snow showers southeast of both lakes. Wednesday and Thursday . Generally VFR.

MARINE. A moderately strong area of low pressure will pass just north of Lakes Erie and Ontario overnight. Sustained winds will peak around 35 knots early this morning then back off during the day Sunday and become northwest.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Strong winds this morning will bring another round of lakeshore flooding to Lake Ontario. The combination of high lake levels, strong onshore westerly winds, and high waves will produce some lakeshore flooding in bays and inlets at the east end of the lake impacting lakeshore areas of Jefferson and Oswego counties.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Lakeshore Flood Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ006-007. Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ006>008. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for NYZ012-019- 020-085. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ020. Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LOZ030. Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for LOZ042>045- 062>065.



SYNOPSIS . RSH/Thomas/TMA NEAR TERM . RSH/Thomas/TMA SHORT TERM . Hitchcock LONG TERM . Hitchcock AVIATION . JLA/RSH/TMA MARINE . RSH/Thomas/TMA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . Hitchcock/TMA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 10 mi60 min WSW 41 G 48 32°F 1003.2 hPa (+2.0)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 12 mi42 min 32°F 1004.9 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 28 mi42 min WSW 26 G 31 33°F 37°F1004.9 hPa21°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 38 mi48 min 34°F 1004.3 hPa
NREP1 38 mi90 min W 16 G 30 30°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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E8
G11
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G11
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G14
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NW14
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N7
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W18
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N19
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N14
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N14
G17
N12
G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY6 mi67 minWSW 17 G 271.25 miLight Snow Fog/Mist32°F28°F85%1006.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDKK

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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--SW27
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1 day agoN11N11N10N8NE8NE8NE7NE7E4N4NE4N4E3E6E5E3E6E5E4E11E6NE5E10SE3
2 days agoW14
G22
W15
G22
W17
G24
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G29
W14
G23
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N11NW17
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NW14NW12N12N9N10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.