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Marine Weather and Tides
Version 3.4 |
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports. |
| Sunrise 7:41AM | Sunset 5:13PM | Sunday January 19, 2020 5:00 AM EST (10:00 UTC) | Moonrise 2:39AM | Moonset 1:03PM | Illumination 33% |  |
LEZ041 Expires:202001190415;;160397 Fzus51 Kbuf 182306 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 606 Pm Est Sat Jan 18 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez040-041-190415- Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 606 Pm Est Sat Jan 18 2020
.gale warning in effect through Sunday morning...
Tonight..Southwest gales to 40 knots becoming west. Rain early, then snow and rain late this evening. Snow after midnight. Waves 7 to 10 feet building to 10 to 14 feet. Waves occasionally around 18 feet.
Sunday..West gales to 35 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Lake effect snow. Waves 9 to 13 feet subsiding to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming north and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Lake effect snow in the evening, then lake effect snow showers likely overnight. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of snow showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
.gale warning in effect through Sunday morning...
Tonight..Southwest gales to 40 knots becoming west. Rain early, then snow and rain late this evening. Snow after midnight. Waves 7 to 10 feet building to 10 to 14 feet. Waves occasionally around 18 feet.
Sunday..West gales to 35 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Lake effect snow. Waves 9 to 13 feet subsiding to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming north and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Lake effect snow in the evening, then lake effect snow showers likely overnight. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of snow showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LEZ041
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Silver Creek, NY
Hourly EDIT Helplocation: 42.54, -79.17 debug
Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
(on/off) Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definitionFXUS61 KBUF 190915 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 415 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020
SYNOPSIS. A storm system to our north will move into New England today. This will result in a period of accumulating lake snows that will total over a foot in the lake snow belts. Cold weather is expected into early next week with scattered lake effect snow showers lingering.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Lake snows will continue to focus across the higher terrain east of the lake as the primary low level flow remains westerly through this morning. Cold air advection will send 850 mb temperatures to near -15C resulting in ample over-lake instability. Plenty of moisture available in a gradually increasing convective boundary layer with inversion heights nearing 10k feet. Fairly well aligned omega within favorable dendritic snow growth zone should support a period of decent snowfall rates. There should be a period of 1 to as much as 2 inches an hour generating daytime snowfall of 4 to 8 inches east of Lake Erie, with similar amounts likely east of Lake Ontario across the Tug Hill region. Outside of the main lake effect areas, any additional accumulations today will be minor and less than an inch.
Gusty winds will continue today, mainly during the morning, with areas closest to the lakeshores experiencing the strongest gusts to near 40 mph, with 30 to 35 mph elsewhere.
The boundary layer flow will veer to northwest later this afternoon and tonight as a secondary trough drops through. This should support fairly widespread snow shower activity. More organized lake effect snow off Lake Ontario will focus southeast of the lake from Rochester to western Oswego County. This area may see 2-4 inches of additional accumulation in the most persistent bands. Off Lake Erie, lake effect snow will continue to focus across the higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge. Additional accumulations of 2-4 inches are possible in the most persistent snows. Outside of the main lake effect areas, the trough may produce an inch or so accumulation. All of this will begin to diminish in intensity and areal coverage after midnight as deeper moisture departs.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Monday weak northwest flow lake effect will continue. there will be little left in terms of deep moisture or synoptic support, and inversion heights will lower steadily. This should only support light, disorganized lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes with minor accumulations. Another weak trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes Monday night through early Tuesday. This may support a continuation of light lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes, but overall marginal moisture and shallow inversion heights should keep this light with minor, spotty accumulations.
Temperatures will reach their coldest Monday and Monday night. Highs will be in the lower 20s in Western NY and teens east of Lake Ontario Monday. Lows Monday night will be in the teens across Western NY, and below zero east of Lake Ontario with less marine influence.
An area of high pressure will track from the mid Mississippi on Tuesday morning to the eastern portion of the Ohio Valley by Wednesday morning. As the area of high pressure tracks east, closer to the region, increased warm air advection starting Tuesday will continue through Wednesday morning. Warm air advection will increase 850H temps from around -12C on Tuesday morning to -7C over WNY and around -10C east of Lake Ontario by Tuesday evening. With temps aloft warming, any remaining lake response will continue to diminish, and just a chance of snow showers will be possible Tuesday evening northeast of Lake Ontario as winds shift to the west- southwest. Snow showers should be mostly done with by the late evening off of Lake Ontario, with some residual cloud cover remaining from a weak lake response.
Temperatures on Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 20s south of Lake Ontario and in the low to mid 20s east of Lake Ontario, with a few mid teen reading possible across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill. Lows Tuesday night won't drop much with increased warm air advection, and will be in the upper teens to low 20s south of Lake Ontario and in the teens across the North Country.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The second half of the workweek will much much quieter than the first half. The deep trough over the Great Lakes and New England will quickly depart Wednesday as strong height rises spread east across the U.S., and surface high pressure builds to the east coast. This will support a return to dry weather Wednesday through Thursday. Temperatures will warm rapidly as the cold pool aloft exits, replaced by 850MB temperatures warming above 0 C. This will support highs back in the lower 40s by Thursday and Friday across lower elevations.
The forecast becomes more uncertain again later Friday and especially Saturday. The overall upper air pattern across North America will remain quite warm in the mid latitudes, however a cutoff low will move east across the eastern third of the nation. This upper level low may have just enough cold air associated with it to bring winter weather back into play by Saturday.
Some previous model runs of the GFS and ECMWF were more aggressive in bringing warm air into the eastern Great Lakes Saturday, resulting in a rain event. The 12Z GFS/GEM, and especially the 12Z ECMWF are trending colder again for Saturday and Sunday, potentially setting the stage for accumulating wet snow across our region as the upper level low moves slowly from the Ohio Valley to the eastern Great Lakes Saturday through Sunday, eventually yielding to secondary coastal cyclogenesis later Sunday off the New England coast. This system is slow moving and should have a good deal of moisture associated with it, so it bears watching. For now introduced rain and snow into the forecast for next Saturday given temperature uncertainty.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Low end VFR or MVFR cigs with scattered snow showers will be found at the major TAF sites through tonight, while IFR to VLIFR vsbys in lake effect snow will be found at KJHW and possibly KART. Gusty winds will result in some blowing snow where snow showers are more persistent.
Outlook .
Monday . MVFR with IFR vsbys in lake snow across the Southern Tier and in a corridor between KROC and KSYR. Monday night and Tuesday . Mainly VFR, but MVFR in leftover lake snow showers southeast of both lakes. Wednesday and Thursday . Generally VFR.
MARINE. A moderately strong area of low pressure will pass just north of Lakes Erie and Ontario overnight. Sustained winds will peak around 35 knots early this morning then back off during the day Sunday and become northwest.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Strong winds this morning will bring another round of lakeshore flooding to Lake Ontario. The combination of high lake levels, strong onshore westerly winds, and high waves will produce some lakeshore flooding in bays and inlets at the east end of the lake impacting lakeshore areas of Jefferson and Oswego counties.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Lakeshore Flood Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ006-007. Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ006>008. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for NYZ012-019- 020-085. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ020. Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LOZ030. Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for LOZ042>045- 062>065.
SYNOPSIS . RSH/Thomas/TMA NEAR TERM . RSH/Thomas/TMA SHORT TERM . Hitchcock LONG TERM . Hitchcock AVIATION . JLA/RSH/TMA MARINE . RSH/Thomas/TMA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . Hitchcock/TMA
Weather Reporting Stations
EDIT (on/off) Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | Pressure | DewPt |
| DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY | 10 mi | 60 min | WSW 41 G 48 | 32°F | 1003.2 hPa (+2.0) | |||
| PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY | 12 mi | 42 min | 32°F | 1004.9 hPa | ||||
| BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY | 28 mi | 42 min | WSW 26 G 31 | 33°F | 37°F | 1004.9 hPa | 21°F | |
| NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY | 38 mi | 48 min | 34°F | 1004.3 hPa | ||||
| NREP1 | 38 mi | 90 min | W 16 G 30 | 30°F |
Wind History for Buffalo, NY
(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off) Help| 5 AM | 6 AM | 7 AM | 8 AM | 9 AM | 10 AM | 11 AM | 12 PM | 1 PM | 2 PM | 3 PM | 4 PM | 5 PM | 6 PM | 7 PM | 8 PM | 9 PM | 10 PM | 11 PM | 12 AM | 1 AM | 2 AM | 3 AM | 4 AM | |
| Last 24hr | E G11 | E | E G10 | E G8 | E G8 | SE G7 | SE G11 | SE G14 | SE G10 | SE | SE G14 | SE G15 | S G26 | S | S G25 | SW G38 | SW G41 | SW G39 | SW G35 | SW | SW | W G27 | W G21 | SW G28 |
| 1 day ago | NW G17 | N G18 | N G16 | N G17 | N G17 | NW G15 | N | N G11 | NE | NW | S | SW G4 | S | N G7 | E | E G9 | E | E G9 | E G10 | E G10 | E | E G11 | E G13 | E G12 |
| 2 days ago | W G24 | W | W | W G23 | NW | W G18 | W G26 | W G25 | W | W G28 | W G24 | NW G22 | NW G23 | NW G24 | NW G26 | NW G22 | NW G21 | NW G26 | NW | NW G19 | N G26 | N G22 | N G17 | N G16 |
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Visibility | Sky/Weather | Temp | DewPt | Humidity | Pressure |
| Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY | 6 mi | 67 min | WSW 17 G 27 | 1.25 mi | Light Snow Fog/Mist | 32°F | 28°F | 85% | 1006.8 hPa |
Link to 5 minute data for KDKK
Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
| 6 AM | 7 AM | 8 AM | 9 AM | 10 AM | 11 AM | 12 PM | 1 PM | 2 PM | 3 PM | 4 PM | 5 PM | 6 PM | 7 PM | 8 PM | 9 PM | 10 PM | 11 PM | 12 AM | 1 AM | 2 AM | 3 AM | 4 AM | 5 AM | |
| Last 24hr | S G15 | SE | S | SE G24 | SE G21 | S G31 | S G35 | S G32 | S G26 | S G35 | S G29 | S G28 | SW G40 | SW G38 | SW G34 | SW G31 | SW G28 | SW G24 | W G27 | SW G35 | W G27 | W G28 | ||
| 1 day ago | N | N | N | N | NE | NE | NE | NE | E | N | NE | N | E | E | E | E | E | E | E | E | E | NE | E | SE |
| 2 days ago | W G22 | W G22 | W G24 | W G29 | W G23 | W G26 | W G25 | W G23 | W G26 | W G28 | W G24 | NW G29 | NW G21 | N | NW G29 | NW G23 | NW G27 | NW G29 | NW G19 | NW | NW | N | N | N |
Tide / Current Tables for
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) (on/off) HelpTide / Current Tables for
EDIT (on/off) HelpWeather Map
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GEOS Local Image of EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop
Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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