Sunday, June13, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Trumansburg, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:26AMSunset 8:45PM Sunday June 13, 2021 10:21 AM EDT (14:21 UTC) Moonrise 6:58AMMoonset 10:40PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202106130915;;174931 Fzus51 Kbuf 130223 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 1023 Pm Edt Sat Jun 12 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-130915- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1023 Pm Edt Sat Jun 12 2021
Rest of tonight..Light and variable winds. Mainly clear late this evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..South winds less than 10 knots becoming north. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..West winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 52 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Trumansburg, NY
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location: 42.55, -76.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 131059 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 659 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

SYNOPSIS. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through tonight. A few storms may produce damaging winds and heavy rain, with localized flooding possible. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue Monday, as another disturbance drops through the region. Though a small chance of showers lingers Tuesday, drier and cooler weather is anticipated for midweek.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. 355 AM Update . Main concern is for multiple batches of scattered thunderstorms, a few of which could contain damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall.

Trends are for convection to get started a bit later than earlier expected; mid afternoon through evening. Until then, just a couple spotty showers will be found from Twin Tiers southward; an otherwise dry period through midday. Some guidance also shifts more of the newly developing storm coverage quickly south and east into Central PA this afternoon, which makes sense given the current wave diving southeast across Lake Erie. However, at least scattered thunderstorms are still expected from the Twin Tiers southward late afternoon-evening, and especially towards Bradford-Wyoming- Lackawanna-Luzerne counties where Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) is most likely exceed 1000 J/kg. Coverage is more iffy to the north though at least scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Also, towards Poconos- Catskills, instability will be more elevated instead of surface based due to near-surface stability of marine layer influence. Shortwaves will still translate enough instability over the marine layer for thunderstorms to translate over to the Poconos- Catskills this evening.

Shear later today will be modest, and mainly in the 3-6km layer. However, top heavy CAPE, along with inverted-V look to model soundings in the lowest 1km, suggest that the main threat will be for downdrafts mixing to the surface out of storm cores. Hail could also occur given the portion of CAPE that will be higher up in the storms. The Storm Prediction Center keeps most of our area in a marginal risk for isolated severe thunderstorms, with a slight risk/scattered severe focused mainly on Ohio Valley to Central PA but extending to about Bradford County as well.

There is considerable uncertainty for if additional clusters of convection will occur deep into tonight, as midlevel lapse rates steepen and a possible shortwave runs through increasing zonal flow aloft. Though locally heavy rainfall could occur this afternoon, the risk will isolated flooding will be primarily tonight for the locations where individual storm tracks can overlap from the multiple batches. Shear will also increase overnight, so isolated severe cannot be ruled out.

Finally, on Monday, a rather robust wave will pivot into the region causing 500mb height falls. Thus the forcing and shear will increase, though precipitable water values will also be considerably lowering. Locally heavy rainfall appears less of a risk Monday since cells will be more widely scattered and progressively moving. However, strong gusts could still occur and thus a chunk of our area remains in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Monday; especially Northeast PA.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. A round of showers and thunderstorms will be exiting the region by or during the evening Monday. Some clearing is possible overnight as the airmass stabilizes and the main trough exits our region. However, on Tuesday steep low level lapse rates should develop additional mid-level clouds with enough lingering moisture for a few spotty showers as well. 50's for lows Monday with highs only rebounding into the 70's Tuesday due to the clouds. QPF looks on the light side this period given most of the showers look brief and spotty. A rumble or two of thunder can not be ruled out as well given the lapse rates and a few hundred J/KG CAPE Tuesday afternoon.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. High pressure builds in Tuesday night and slowly moves east by Friday. As a result, cool crisp air should continued to be advected into the area through Thursday with 40's and 50's for lows with 60's and 70's for highs. This will be coupled with plenty of sunshine! By Friday, return southwest flow brings in slightly warmer weather and some moisture too. An approaching cold front then looks to bring the lift needed for our next chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday night potentially lasting through Saturday. While temperatures are on a warming trend precipitation on Saturday may cut into daytime highs a bit. Went more toward the ECMWF timing given the progressive bias with cold fronts on the GFS.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Marine layer moisture advanced northward across KAVP-KBGM-KELM, lowering ceilings to MVFR and even LIFR for a time at KBGM. To the north, KITH-KSYR-KRME have been VFR and will remain there today unless directly hit by a shower/storm. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop mid afternoon through at least early evening; probability is somewhat higher for KELM-KBGM-KAVP versus KITH-KSYR-KRME though there is still considerable uncertainty for location and timing of convective clusters. Most terminals will end up developing ceiling restrictions from trapped moisture overnight, and rogue shower/storm clusters could still occur. Surface winds will generally be variable in direction at 5 knots or less, though erratic stronger gusts could occur near any thunderstorms.

Outlook . Monday morning . Lingering restrictions expected; still a chance of showers/isolated thunderstorms.

Midday Monday through Tuesday . Chance of additional showers and thunderstorms/brief restrictions, otherwise mainly VFR.

Tuesday night through Thursday . Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . MDP NEAR TERM . MDP SHORT TERM . MWG LONG TERM . MWG AVIATION . MDP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 63 mi51 min WNW 6 G 7 65°F 1011.5 hPa56°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 73 mi81 min E 5.1 G 6 67°F 1012.2 hPa (-0.3)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 74 mi51 min 66°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ithaca, Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, NY8 mi25 minE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F62°F67%1011.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KITH

Wind History from ITH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7W6NW6W7
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NW5NW6NW6W9W7NW5N4NE6E4E6E43E3NE3E3NE4SE3SE34E3
1 day agoS8S7
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S12SE9S13S8SE8SE4S8SE6SE5S5CalmSE4S3CalmCalmCalmS3W6NW5
2 days agoW53NW10W9W10N9N6N8N5NW3CalmCalmCalmE3E3CalmCalmE3SE6SE5SE5SE8SE7S9

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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