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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 906 Am Cst Tue Dec 5 2023
Rest of today..North wind 5 to 15 knots becoming 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon, then becoming north 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Chance of showers late in the morning, then slight chance of showers early in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot building to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Wednesday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots backing southwest with gusts to around 20 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy through around midnight then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and early morning, then subsiding to 1 to 2 feet early in the morning.
wave heights are for ice free areas.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 050926 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 326 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

SHORT TERM
(Issued 300 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023)

Key Messages: - Mostly light snow expected for far southern/southwestern WI today with amounts mostly around a half inch or less.
- A brief period of lake effect rain/snow in southeast WI this afternoon.
- Mostly quiet weather later this afternoon through Wednesday.

Today through Wednesday:

A weak clipper low continues to track southeast just to the south of the area bringing light snow with it on the north side. Based on current observations this is largely forced from the upper level wave associated with it with some lesser forcing from upper level divergence and some low to mid level WAA. In addition, current radar observations suggests that most of the snowfall will fall in far southern Wisconsin and lightly at that. There is some spotty, more convective snow showers further north but those are expected to remain brief and thus largely light accumulation- wise. These snow showers could cause visibilities to fall to less than a mile with moderate snow, however. While the snow across far southern Wisconsin will remain mostly light the cooler temps should allow for some minor accumulations this morning with up to around a half inch expected though some areas in far southern WI may see up to three quarters of an inch. The light accumulations will lead to wet to slightly slushy roads with perhaps bridges and overpasses collecting a bit more snow. Overall expect limited impacts to roads.

Snow will gradually end this morning with snow largely pushing out by around noon today as the low slides out of the region. Some northeast flow off the lake with some low level convergence may (20-30%) bring a brief period of lake effect snow/rain mix to southeast areas near the lake into this afternoon but otherwise the region will largely remain dry.

Into Tuesday night and into Wednesday, southern WI is expected to remain dry due to the strengthening high over the central Mississippi Valley, which will impinge on southern WI and gradually push out by late Wednesday. Otherwise, expect increasing southerly winds as the high exits and the low to the northwest impinges on the high increasing the pressure gradient.

Kuroski

LONG TERM
(Issued 330 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023)

Wednesday night through Monday:

Excellent model consensus on upper level ridging building over the region Thursday and persisting into Friday. This results in high confidence (>90%) in observing well above average temperatures with highs well into the 40s to around 50 Thursday and low to mid 50s on Friday. While there will be a bit of southerly breeze, Thursday and Friday are days to take advantage of any outdoor activities.

The weekend continues to be an interesting period to watch as there are wide ranging outcomes. There is consensus a system will gather strength in the middle of the nation, however specifics are rather uncertain. The primary culprit is how each ensemble system handles the timing, location and whether or not there will be phasing of the northern and southern stream troughs. Between the GEFS, GEPS and the ECMWF ensembles, there is just about a solution for everyone's tastes. A few tracks clipping southeastern MN into northern WI (warmer/wetter), a few traversing the Ohio River Valley (cooler/drier), and a mess of solutions in between.
As a result any signal is washed out in the ensemble means with the resultant upper level trough/surface low positioning one of the more less likely scenarios. For the snow lovers, there are several 'ifs' that need to line up just right, including northern/southern stream phasing, system deepening to our south/southwest and 850mb/surface low track from west central to northeastern Illinois. Possible, but a low confidence (<15%)
outcome at this point.

For now have maintained chances for a rain/snow mix Saturday, transitioning to snow Saturday night into early Sunday. Given the spread in timing, PoPs for the weekend are a bit pessimistic covering the potential for both the quicker (GEFS) and slower (ECMWF) solutions. Bottom line, keep an eye on the forecast for the upcoming weekend as model handling of phasing is very finicky which can result in abrupt changes.

Temperatures will trend back to near average this weekend into early next week.

Gagan

AVIATION
(Issued 300 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023)

MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected through the period across southern Wisconsin. The lower CIGS are largely tied to the precipitation so as snowfall comes to an end late morning/early afternoon CIGS are expected to rise a but remaining MVFR.
Expect CIGS to gradually rise and scattered overnight tonight

Snow accumulations to around a half inch are expected near the Illinois border, with little to nothing north of I-94 outside of some convective snow showers. Snowfall rates should be up to one tenth of an inch per hour for locations near the Illinois border.
Any snow will be of the wet/higher liquid content variety.
Visibilities are expected to be around 2-5 SM as snow moves through. Areas south of I-94 are expected to have more steady snowfall and therefore are expected to see those lower visibilites. As we move into the afternoon we cannot rule out a very brief period of lake effect rain/snow mix as winds go northeast for a short period.

Otherwise, light north winds are expected through the afternoon before becoming northwest Tuesday evening/night. Winds will continue to back into Wednesday becoming southwesterly again.

Kuroski

MARINE
(Issued 300 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023)

Low pressure will track from Illinois into the Ohio Vally region today. Light winds tonight will become north to northwest this afternoon and tonight. Southwest winds will then develop across the region later Wednesday and linger into the rest of the week as a strong low pressure sweeps across the northern Great Lakes region. Gusty southwest winds expected Wednesday evening and night with potential for a few gales with small craft conditions likely.
Another period of gusty southwest winds expected Thursday night into Friday though gales do not look likely and another small craft may be needed though highest winds will be on the east side of the lake.

Kuroski

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

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