Tuesday, July23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Essex, MA

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Sunrise 5:24AMSunset 8:14PM Tuesday July 23, 2019 9:40 AM EDT (13:40 UTC) Moonrise 11:51PMMoonset 11:44AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 716 Am Edt Tue Jul 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Patchy fog. Widespread showers. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm this afternoon.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Edt Tue Jul 23 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Another round of showers and embedded Thunderstorms is on tap into early afternoon. This in response to another wave of low pressure riding a long a cold front. A few of the Thunderstorms may be strong into early afternoon and a waterspout can not be ruled out. The cold front will have pressed south of our waters tonight. High pres will build in from the west later Wed through Fri resulting in quiet weather. The high will gradually shift east of the waters this weekend. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essex, MA
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location: 42.58, -70.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 231331
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
931 am edt Tue jul 23 2019

Synopsis
Another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms impact the
region this morning into early this afternoon, focused across
rhode island and southeast massachusetts. Lingering showers are
expected tonight into early Wednesday across the southeast new
england coast. Mostly dry, seasonable weather late week into
the weekend, with a return of more substantial heat and humidity
early next week. Potential wash out of the mugginess late next
week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Highlights ...

* flash flood watch into early afternoon across ri SE ma
930 am update...

quite an anomalous pattern for late july with high amplitude
trough across gt lakes to tn valley with tropical moisture
advecting north across sne with 2 inch pwats along the south
coast. Frontal wave along the coast providing strong low level
convergence combined with upper divergence from right entrance
region of 110 kt upper jet resulting in area of heavy showers
and embedded t-storms moving ene from southern ct and li. This
activity will move across ri and SE ma through midday. Localized
rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches per hour is possible with
potential for localized flash flooding of urban areas.

Best instability is south of long island but can't rule out a
few t-storms, along the immediate south coast and islands.

Robust low level jet providing strong low level shear so low
risk for a rotating storm, mainly over the south coastal waters
and islands.

Heavy showers will exit ri and SE ma around midday and the
cape islands early afternoon. However, a few spot showers will
remain possible through the afternoon. Temps in the mid 70s on
the CAPE islands will drop into the upper 60s this afternoon
after the low moves by and winds shift to n. Brief wind gusts to
20-30 mph are possible over the CAPE islands this afternoon.

Elsewhere, temps will remain mostly between 65 and 70 degrees
but possibly reach into the lower 70s in the ct valley by late
afternoon if there are any breaks of sun.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday
Tonight...

the cold front will be well south of our region tonight. There
will be another wave of low pressure, but this will track
further southeast then this morning s. So the bulk of the
showers will be confined to the southeast new england coast,
particularly the CAPE islands. Elsewhere, think dry weather is
on tap for tonight except for a spot shower or two. Low
temperatures will range from the upper 50s to the middle 60s.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
* highlights ...

- coastal rains lingering Wednesday
- overall dry and seasonable late week into the weekend
- build up heat and humidity early next week
- potential late week washout of the mugginess
* overview ...

brief relief, but summer heat will return. The four-corners monsoon
ridge persisting as the N pacific pattern oscillates emphasized by
positive wpo epo pna trends signaling an onshore fast N pacific
jet squeezed between ak low N of a NE pacific high. Diagnosing h85
temperatures, return of warmer than average conditions aloft mixing
down to the surface by the end of july. Conveyor belt motions from
the mild pacific and hot desert SW conus, trends coinciding with cpc
6-10 8-14 day outlooks. For now, lingering h5 trof deamplifying
through the week. Seasonable, comfortable conditions initially, a
gradual return of heat and humidity while monitoring for upstream
weak wave impulses through the mid-latitude near-flat flow into the
end of july. Some isolated to scattered shower chances but the over-
all pattern looking dry with the absence of more potent mid to upper
level synoptics (like that presently). Break down the details below.

* details ...

Wednesday ...

coastal rains lingering. Mid-upper trof and accompanying synoptics
slow to lift up against the N atlantic ridge bermuda high. Gradual
deamplification as warmer air higher heights prevail out ahead of
additional mid-latitude energy through an evolving flattening flow.

Chance to likely pops further SE closer to the weak wave low along
the now offshore cold front beneath h3 jet dynamics aloft. Cooler
airmass aloft while drier air entrenching at the surface, lean with
seasonable temperatures around the low 80s, however 2m temperatures
expected to be somewhat dependent on cloud cover. Warmest conditions
look to occur over W areas of the ct river valley. Light N W winds
despite the offshore cold front, possibility of sea-breezes along
the coast.

Thursday into the weekend ...

dry, seasonable conditions, however can't rule out an isolated spot
shower. Despite drier conditions with low to mid level low thetae,
favorable lapse rates along with very weak mid level impulses, with
anabatic flow along the high terrain, can't rule out a spot shower.

The better chance Friday and Saturday, berkshires preferred, however
light winds, can't rule out activity along midday sea-breezes. Low
confidence as there are signals suggesting prevailing subsidence.

Heat and humidity gradually rebounding throughout as we see return s
flow late.

Early next week ...

heat and humidity continuing. Subsidence ridge prevailing between
upstream synoptics up against tropical energy creeping n. May not be
till the end of the week that we'll wash out the mugginess with a
sweeping cold front. More potent synoptics can only be emphasized if
energy is downsheared out of canada ahead of re-emerging synoptics
over the gulf of ak. Low confidence forecast.

Aviation 13z Tuesday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through tonight ... Moderate confidence.

12z update ...

today ...

widespread MVFR-ifr with -ra, embedded ra +ra with possible tsra,
the greater risk over se-coastal terminals. With ra +ra a greater
likelihood of ifr perhaps lifr. Activity exits from midday into
early afternoon. Accompanying burst of N NE winds sustained
around 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts. Spot showers
towards evening.

Tonight...

perhaps some partial clearing w, however another batch of -ra is
anticipated around midnight into the early morning hours of
Wednesday. MVFR-ifr lingering especially along and SE of bdl-lwm.

Brief W flow with -ra turning N late.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ... High confidence.

Tuesday: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Breezy. Widespread shra,
patchy br.

Tuesday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Slight
chance shra.

Wednesday:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Wednesday night through Saturday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through tonight ... High confidence.

Today...

northeast wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots expected behind the wave
of low pressure this morning. This will also result in 3 to 6
foot seas building across many open waters and SCA headlines are
in effect for many of our waters. The other issue will be heavy
showers and embedded thunderstorms through early afternoon. A
few of the storms may be strong across our southern waters and a
waterspout can not be ruled out.

Tonight...

ne wind gusts will diminish as pressure gradient weakens. However,
we will need to keep small craft headlines in effect for our
southern waters as a result of lingering seas.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ... High confidence.

Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Widespread
rain showers, scattered thunderstorms, patchy fog. Areas of
visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers, patchy fog.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.

Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Thursday night through Saturday: winds less than 25 kt.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... Flash flood watch until 2 pm edt this afternoon for maz017>024.

Ri... Flash flood watch until 2 pm edt this afternoon for riz001>008.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for anz231-
232-250-251.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for anz233-
234.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Wednesday for anz235-237.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Wednesday for anz254.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Wednesday for anz255-256.

Synopsis... Frank sipprell
near term... Kjc
short term... Frank
long term... Sipprell
aviation... Frank sipprell
marine... Frank sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 11 mi96 min NNE 16 G 19 64°F 66°F4 ft1009.4 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 17 mi50 min NNE 21 G 23 64°F 67°F4 ft1008.1 hPa (+1.3)64°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 22 mi58 min 65°F 1009.4 hPa
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 28 mi40 min NNE 20 G 22 60°F 1009.9 hPa (+1.5)59°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 33 mi55 min ENE 5.1 60°F 1011 hPa59°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 34 mi32 min 67°F4 ft
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 41 mi50 min NNE 12 G 14 65°F 5 ft1009.1 hPa (+1.1)64°F
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 45 mi96 min NNE 18 G 21 60°F 67°F3 ft1010.8 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA9 mi47 minNNE 13 G 216.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist63°F60°F90%1008.7 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA20 mi46 minNNE 1110.00 miLight Rain66°F63°F90%1009.5 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA22 mi46 minNE 119.00 miLight Rain62°F60°F93%1010.4 hPa

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7NE9NE8NE8NE7E6E5NE76NE7N5NE7N8NE9NE10NE10N10N9N6NE6NE9N8NE5NE13
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2 days agoW7NW6W8W73SW5SW5SW6SE6SW8W5W6CalmSW5SW4W8W7W8W7W7W6W7W6W11
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Tide / Current Tables for Manchester Harbor, Massachusetts
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Manchester Harbor
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Tue -- 04:13 AM EDT     8.59 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:23 AM EDT     0.84 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:43 PM EDT     8.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:47 PM EDT     1.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.34.86.47.88.68.37.15.43.620.91.12.23.85.478.28.47.66.24.631.71.4

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Marblehead Channel
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Tue -- 01:27 AM EDT     0.37 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:05 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:26 AM EDT     -0.32 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:42 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:50 PM EDT     0.40 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:32 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:56 PM EDT     -0.32 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.40.40.30.20-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.20.10.30.40.40.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.