Monday, October21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Essex, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 5:53PM Monday October 21, 2019 3:47 AM EDT (07:47 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:22PM Illumination 48% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 116 Am Edt Mon Oct 21 2019
Rest of tonight..E winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A slight chance of rain.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas around 4 ft. Patchy fog in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 5 ft. A chance of light rain and drizzle.
Tue night..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 6 ft. Showers likely.
Wed..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming W with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 6 ft. Showers likely in the morning.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Am Edt Mon Oct 21 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. The remnants of nestor track south of the bench mark by Monday morning. High pressure builds southward into new england Monday. A cold front will pass through Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing southerly winds which will switch to the west along with a chance of rain. High pressure and dry weather follow for the rest of the week. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essex, MA
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location: 42.58, -70.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 210739
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
339 am edt Mon oct 21 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure well south of new england and its rain shield will
impact CAPE cod and the islands early this morning. As the low
continues to move seaward rain will exit and clouds will give way to
increasing sunshine later this morning into the afternoon. However
some cloudiness may linger over CAPE cod and the islands. Dry
weather tonight lingers into Tuesday morning but then spotty light
showers develop Tue afternoon, becoming widespread Tue night ahead
of an approaching cold front. Behind the front dry and seasonably
mild conditions follow Wednesday afternoon into Friday although a
cold front may bring a few showers Friday afternoon and night. High
pressure builds in for next weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
340 am update...

back edge of rain shield associated with offshore low now moving
across coastal ri into buzzards bay and eastward to CAPE cod and the
islands at 330 am. Back edge of cloud shield over central ma ct and
moving steadily eastward. Where skies have cleared over eastern ny
into berkshire county ma, light winds and dew pts in the 40s has
resulted in patchy dense fog. Thus as the cloud shield advances east
and skies clear expected areas of fog to develop before sunrise
across central ct ma which includes the hartford area and the city
of springfield. This may have some impact on the morning commute
depending how quickly skies clear. Also there could be enough blyr
mixing via light north winds to preclude fog from becoming too
widespread or dense. Something we will watch closely over the next
few hours.

As ocean storm departs short wave ridging develops across the area
with rain ending and clouds eroding moving offshore. Thus increasing
sunshine later this morning into the afternoon from west to east.

Low level northeast flow may result in clouds lingering longer over
southeast especially CAPE cod and the islands. Airmass relatively
mild with 925 mb temps around +9c by this afternoon. Model soundings
show mixing beyond 925 mb so expecting highs 60-65 this afternoon,
perhaps only upper 50s CAPE cod and islands if clouds linger along
with cool northeast winds.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
340 am update...

tonight ...

dry weather with short wave ridge over the area along with surface
ridge from quebec into southern new england. This will provide
mostly clear conditions, light winds and with dew pts in the upper
30s to mid 40s expect radiational fog to develop.

Tuesday ...

any possible breaks of sunshine early will quickly give way to
overcast conditions as return flow and associated SE low level jet
increase. Spotty light rain drizzle may develop in the afternoon
with this increasing moist low level flow. Not a washout but could
get damp in the afternoon and especially late in the day. Cloud
cover and increasing onshore winds will limit highs to the mid and
upper 50s.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Highlights...

* low clouds Tue with light rain or patchy drizzle at times
* period of showers Tue night into early Wed then improving
conditions
* dry and mild weather Thu fri
* continued mainly dry and cooler for next weekend
Tuesday into Wednesday...

easterly flow Tue with considerable low level moisture
developing will result in low clouds overspreading much of the
region. Models generating light QPF moving in from the east.

This is likely a signal for some light rain or patchy drizzle
developing within moist easterly flow beneath dry air through
the mid levels. Then approaching shortwave and attending cold
front moves into the region Tue night. Deep moisture plume and
low level convergence will result in a period of showers moving
west to east across sne. The low level jet is somewhat fractured
and not particularly strong so not expecting an organized area
of heavy rainfall. But some locally heavier rain is possible tue
night as a wave develops on the front which enhances low level
convergence. However, better chance likely across maine on wed
north of the developing surface wave where decent E SE low level
jet develops. Much of the shower activity should be east of new
eng by Wed morning, but can't rule out a few lingering showers
into Wed morning, mainly across eastern ma. Otherwise, expect
increasing sunshine Wed as good mid level drying moves in with
mild temps well into the 60s.

Thursday through Sunday...

high pres moves off the mid atlc coast Thu with return flow
developing. Sunshine and seasonable temps for thu. Models differ on
the pattern for the end of the week into the weekend. ECMWF showing
a split flow pattern with dominant northern stream into the weekend
with southern stream low pres approaching late in the weekend. Gfs
has more of phased system with rain impacting sne on sat. Leaning
toward ECMWF solution which has support of other global guidance
including UKMET ggem. This supports a frontal passage late Fri fri
night which may be accompanied by some showers then high pres
building in for the weekend with dry and cooler conditions. Will
have to watch possible southern stream system approaching late in
the weekend. If timing speeds up then some rain may begin to impact
the region sometime Sunday, but going with a dry forecast for now.

Aviation 08z Monday through Friday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ...

06z update...

thru 12z... High confidence on trends, lower on exact
timing details
vfr for most of the region with light rain over ri
and southeast ma continuing to move east and should exit cape
cod and the islands by 09z-12z. MVFR conditions will impact the
south coast of ma ri including CAPE cod and the islands. Other
area of concern is western ma ct when skies clear patchy dense
ground fog is possible including bdl baf. Light winds.

After 12z... High confidence.

MVFR CIGS may linger over CAPE cod and islands into the
afternoon. Otherwise any patchy ifr MVFR dense fog western ma ct
lifts toVFR quickly.VFR elsewhere as well. Light NE winds, bit
higher CAPE cod and islands.

Tonight... Moderate confidence, some uncertainty regarding areal
coverage of MVFR late.

Vfr to start and dry. However MVFR CIGS may come onshore late
and overspread much of the region.

Tuesday... High confidence on trends, lower on exact
timing details
vfr MVFR then trending ifr MVFR in areas of low clouds and
drizzle in the afternoon and especially toward evening.

Kbos terminal...

high confidence in TAF trends.

Kbdl terminal...

high confidence in TAF trends.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ... Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night: mainly ifr, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Ra
likely, chance shra, patchy br.

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance shra.

Wednesday night:VFR. Breezy.

Thursday through Thursday night:VFR.

Friday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ...

340 am update...

today ...

weak low pressure south of 40n 70w will provide NE winds 15-20 kt
over the waters south of the islands this morning, possibly gusting
up to 25 kt. Given the long fetch seas will increase 4 to 7 ft. Less
wind and waves northward. Light rain before over the southern waters
exits offshore by or shortly after daybreak. Northeast winds
decrease this afternoon.

Tonight ...

east swells as wind diminishes with high pres from quebec building
into new england. Dry weather and good vsby.

Tuesday ...

high pres moves into the maritimes with ese winds strengthening
across new england. Vsby lowers in developing areas of drizzle rain.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ... Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain likely, rain
showers likely, patchy fog. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday night through Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas
up to 5 ft.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Slight chance of rain showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Tuesday for anz254>256.

Synopsis... Nocera
near term... Nocera
short term... Nocera
long term... Kjc
aviation... Kjc nocera
marine... Kjc nocera


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 11 mi103 min E 7.8 G 7.8 56°F 56°F1 ft1017 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 17 mi57 min E 9.7 G 9.7 56°F 57°F1 ft1015.9 hPa (-1.3)51°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 22 mi53 min 55°F 55°F1016.3 hPa
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 28 mi47 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 55°F 1017.4 hPa (+0.4)51°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 33 mi62 min W 1 49°F 1018 hPa49°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 34 mi39 min 55°F1 ft
CMLN3 34 mi163 min 55°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 41 mi57 min ENE 7.8 G 9.7 55°F 1 ft1017 hPa (-1.1)50°F
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 45 mi103 min ESE 5.8 G 5.8 53°F 55°F1 ft1018.1 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA9 mi54 minN 510.00 miOvercast52°F48°F89%1016.7 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA20 mi53 minNNE 310.00 miOvercast57°F46°F67%1017.3 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA22 mi53 minN 010.00 miOvercast50°F48°F93%1018.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBVY

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN3N3N3N4N3N3CalmCalmCalmS4S4SE7E5E3CalmE3CalmE3N6CalmSE5N3N5
1 day agoW5W5NW5W5W76NW11NW7554NW76W5CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4N3CalmN3NW3Calm
2 days agoW8W10W9W73W9W12
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Tide / Current Tables for Manchester Harbor, Massachusetts
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Manchester Harbor
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Mon -- 05:16 AM EDT     8.12 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:41 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Mon -- 11:14 AM EDT     1.43 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:22 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:28 PM EDT     9.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:55 PM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.22.74.467.48.17.86.75.23.62.31.51.83.256.68.1997.96.24.32.51

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Marblehead Channel
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Mon -- 12:18 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:21 AM EDT     0.40 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:00 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:41 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Mon -- 08:53 AM EDT     -0.29 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 12:37 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:22 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:44 PM EDT     0.42 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 06:22 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:31 PM EDT     -0.35 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.10.20.40.40.30.20-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.10.10.40.40.40.30.1-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.