Friday, September18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mount Clemens, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 7:36PM Friday September 18, 2020 7:36 AM EDT (11:36 UTC) Moonrise 7:29AMMoonset 7:42PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 347 Am Edt Fri Sep 18 2020
Today..North winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:202009182015;;988598 FZUS63 KDTX 180747 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 347 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A high pressure, averaging 30.40 inches, will move across the western Great Lakes today bringing north to northeast winds to the central Great Lakes. This high pressure will slowly drift directly over the Central Great Lakes over the course of the weekend bringing quiet marine conditions. LCZ460-182015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Clemens, MI
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location: 42.58, -82.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 181102 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 702 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020

AVIATION.

Expect VFR conditions this forecast with perhaps a period of lower VFR cigs within afternoon cu/strato-cu as northeast flow pulls some moisture into area within an otherwise dry air mass associated with building high pressure.

For DTW . Only significant concern this period will be strength of northeast winds favoring north runway operations with a few hours of afternoon cigs near 5kft also possible.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* Low for cigs aob 5000 feet this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 343 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020

DISCUSSION .

Expanding thermal trough and efficient radiational cooling from mostly clear skies has resulted in a chilly start to the day, with early morning risers greeted by temperatures in the low to mid-40s, including a few spots in the upper 30s (mainly across the Tri- Cities and the inland portions of the Thumb). This strong thermal trough, which holds temperatures around 0C at h850, will remain draped across SE MI throughout the day as low-level northeast flow prevails. This will allow to only a modest warm up by the afternoon with supportive temperature highs in the upper-50s to lower-60s. An anomalously dry air mass will continue to spread across all of SE MI late this morning, ahead of an advancing high pressure system, which will produce continued dry weather and extended periods of sunshine today. Very modest veering of low-level wind direction to the NE will advect a moisture plume off of Lake Huron and will support increasing cloud trends across the Thumb later this morning, before moving inland during the afternoon. Any lingering late day clouds will erode by the evening as northeast flow weakens and even drier air is advected into SE MI. To put the dry air in perspective, HREF mean PW values hold average values around .25 inches for the northern Metro region Sat 00Z into Sat 12Z, which falls below the minimum moving average of ~.30 per SPC climatology page for DTX and may challenge some individual records.

Another round of clear skies with dew points dropping into the low to mid-30s will support an even cooler start for Saturday morning as temperatures also drop into the low to mid-30s across most of the cwa, the exception being the Metro urban heat island and communities bordering the lakes. This will aid in areas of frost production overnight. Otherwise, a thermal through will again hold on Saturday as a seasonably strong high pressure system at 1030 mb moves across the Great Lakes region, producing mostly sunny skies with temperatures again holding in the upper-50s to lower-60s. Confidence is high regarding a warming temperature trend to start next week as return flow from the departing high pressure system advects warmer air across SE MI. This high pressure will stall across the continental northeast as a tropical system (Teddy) races north across the Atlantic. As a result, a prolonged period of dry weather along with plenty of sunshine will be observed through the midweek period. The next chance for rain showers will enter sometime between late Wednesday into Thursday tied to a potential trough/cold front feature. This feature is only exhibited in roughly half of the EPS and Canadian ensemble members, so PoP values will remain at a chance at this time until additional convergence is noted across new model runs.

MARINE .

Onshore flow will persist through this afternoon with wind gusts up to around 25 knots generating waves of 3 to 5 feet along the nearshores from Outer Saginaw Bay to Port Huron again. Enough instability over the Lake Huron with the cold air advection should support these winds through the afternoon, which will keep Small Craft Advisories in effect. Conditions should start to finally fall below Small Craft criteria throughout this evening with the approach of a high pressure system from the west. This incoming high pressure will move directly over the central Great Lakes and bring more favorable boating conditions over the weekend with light and variable winds and low wave action.

&

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for MIZ049- 055-063.

Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ421- 441>443.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . DG DISCUSSION . DG MARINE . DG

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 8 mi37 min NNW 7 G 16 49°F 1023.7 hPa (+1.7)
45147 - Lake St Clair 13 mi37 min N 14 G 18 67°F2 ft1021.1 hPa (+1.0)
AGCM4 16 mi49 min 46°F 67°F1022.7 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 35 mi49 min 49°F 1021.6 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 37 mi49 min NW 8 G 13 47°F 1021.3 hPa38°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI3 mi41 minNNW 1110.00 miFair45°F41°F88%1023.7 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI14 mi44 minN 910.00 miFair49°F39°F69%1023.4 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi42 minN 610.00 miFair48°F39°F73%1024.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTC

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N10N10N13N10N11N15N13
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NE8NE9NE13N12N10N8N9N8N9N8N8N8N9N11NW11
1 day agoSW7SW8SW8S8SW9SW9SW9S10S9SW10S8S7S5S6W3N15
G19
N11N7N7N6N8N11N8N10
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmS5S9S9S9S12S10S9S10S9S6S7S8S8S6SW4CalmSW6SW6SW7SW7SW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map


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