Saturday, March28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mount Clemens, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 7:54PM Saturday March 28, 2020 5:34 PM EDT (21:34 UTC) Moonrise 8:36AMMoonset 11:10PM Illumination 23% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 942 Am Edt Sat Mar 28 2020
.gale warning in effect from Sunday morning through late Sunday night...
Rest of today..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Rain late in the morning...then light rain in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Rain and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales in the late morning and afternoon. Partly Sunny. Light rain likely in the morning...then a chance of light rain in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales becoming west 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the evening. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:202003282015;;198406 FZUS63 KDTX 281342 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 942 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure located across the Plains will travel northeast today, strengthening down to 29.30 inches as it centers across the Midwest tonight. This system will allow a warm front to travel across the southern Great Lakes region later this afternoon and evening, but will have little impact on surface winds as easterly flow holds. A stronger push of warmer air and eventual passage of a cold front will then veer wind direction from the east to southwest throughout Sunday morning. Sustained wind speed and gusts will quickly ramp up behind the cold front on Sunday while low pressure, 29.40 inches, exits into southern Ontario early Monday morning. LCZ460-282015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Clemens, MI
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location: 42.58, -82.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 282011 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 411 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

DISCUSSION.

Active weather across southern MI this afternoon through Sunday. A strong storm system will lift across the Northern Great Lakes tonight and Sunday bringing another round of thunderstorms which could become strong to severe to far southern MI this evening. This heavy rainfall combined with last nights may may result in some localized flooding warranting a Flood Watch. Lastly, strong southwesterly winds will gust to 35-45 mph necessitating a Wind Advisory.

A mid level low over the Central Plains will continue to deepen through this evening while lifting northeastward into the Midwest and becoming co-located with the associated surface low. A convectively driven wave lifting along the warm front will bring a round of thunderstorms to southern MI this evening with strong to severe weather remaining possible later this evening into the overnight. Good difluent flow aloft with strong upper level and low level jets will produce favorable region of lift and strong shear. Main issue is that the warm front will mainly residing south of the state, maybe through the event, the best surface based instability and forcing will hold south of the region. This would leave us with a couple hundred J/kg of of elevated instability to work with above a stout low level inversion. The shear and elevated instability higher up the front over SE MI could be enough to develop a few stronger thunderstorms with hail remaining a primary threat. South of I94 has the best chance of dealing with the surface warm front thus the best chance of surface based convection and brief weak tornadoes. Persistent cool easterly flow off the lakes will help keep the front from making it too far northward. Timing of the strongest storms is pushed back slightly to around 02-08Z this evening. Showers and thunderstorms may persist into Sunday morning when the cold front until the cold front sweeps through bringing a brief period of drier weather.

Showers and thunderstorms last night resulted in a swath of 1-2 inches of rain across Detroit, Ann Arbor and points southward. This same region has a chance of an addition inch rainfall tonight, more with increased convective activity, with this next round of storms. With reports of ditches and creeks already nearing bankfull, decided to issue a flood watch for that area through Sunday morning. Precipitation will redevelop in the afternoon as residual moisture, cold air advection, and diurnal heating boost produce scattered showers.

Heading into the afternoon Sunday, the stacked system will release eastward with the dry slot sliding up into the area helping shut off the rain. A secondary cold front will then sweep across in the early afternoon with a good pop of wind associated with it. 850mb jet in excess of 50 knots will slide across southern MI with mixing depths increasing with the cold advection setting up. Bufkit soundings show winds throughout the mixed layer solidly in the mid 30 knot range for all models across the area in the afternoon. The core of the strongest winds aloft will occur largely south of I69 and toward the MI/OH border. Local office probabilistic graphs line up well with deterministic models indicating the best chance for low end Advisory gusts south of FNT. Gusts should then taper off in the evening with the loss of the diurnal cycle and the pressure gradient decreasing as the low pulls away. A Wind Advisory has been issued for locations along and south of the I69 corridor (FNT to PHN) from 10AM to 8PM to account for this.

Monday will be cool and breezy as the low is still just to the east over Ontario/Quebec keeping northwest flow and a thermal trough over the state. Highs will be on the mid/upper 40s and will change little through week as a split flow pattern develops aloft. Could see some precip on Wed/Thurs as the upper low retrogrades back towards the Great Lakes. Hints of a backdoor cold front already showing up in long range models.

MARINE.

Low pressure will travel northeast from the Plains and will center over the Midwest this evening, allowing a warm front to push across the southern Great Lakes. Thunderstorms will be possible through the overnight hours tonight. Aside from stronger bursts of wind gusts tied to strong thunderstorms, wind direction will remain easterly, the strongest of which will be seen across northern Lake Huron.

Otherwise, wind direction will then veer southeast and southwest throughout Sunday following the passage of a cold front. A strengthening pressure gradient behind the front along with some mixing of strong low-level winds to the surface will produce a quick uptick in sustained wind speeds and gusts late Sunday morning. Strongest gusts are projected to impact Lake Erie up to Lake St Clair with the potential to see gusts anywhere between 35 to 40 knots through the day. Additional concerns for stronger wind gusts are noted for Saginaw Bay as the southwest fetch funnels down the Bay. As a result, a Gale Warning is now in effect for the aforementioned locations. Small Craft Advisories for the nearshore zones along Lake Huron will also be considered within the standard 24 hour window, as the low pressure nears.

HYDROLOGY.

A warm front will lift toward southern MI this evening and will result in another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening into the overnight period tonight. Around a half inch to an inch of rainfall is expected across the area with higher amounts possible where any thunderstorms track. Minor flooding of roads, low- lying and poor drainage areas, as well as small streams, will be possible. A Flood Watch is in effect for locations south of I94 that already received 1-2 inches of rainfall last night and have the best chance of exceeding an inch again tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 100 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

AVIATION .

Se Mi will remain north of a warm front through the duration of the afternoon and evening. Some increase in the easterly flow has offered some subtle improvements in ceilings heights the last few hours. Deepening low pressure lifting into Iowa this afternoon will increase moisture transport north of the surface warm front and into Se Mi. This will sustain IFR and LIFR stratus through the duration of the afternoon and through much of the night. Subsidence in the wake of the departing mid level short wave has diminished the coverage of showers. As the surface low lifts into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight, strengthening southerly flow across the Ohio Valley will drive additional moisture into Se Mi. This will result in an expansion of showers across the area. An influx of instability aloft will also support scattered thunderstorms, primarily late this evening and overnight.

For DTW . Suspect it will be difficult for ceilings to be able to rise much above 500 feet today considering the abundance of low level moisture lifting north of the surface warm front. The sfc warm front will likely struggle to lift into Metro Detroit overnight as the storm system occludes to the west of the region. Decent elevated instability overnight will still pose the risk of thunderstorms, primarily in the 05 to 09Z time frame.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High in ceiling at or below 5000 ft through Sunday.

* Moderate in thunderstorms tonight.

* Low in cigs below 200 ft and/or vsby below 1/2 mile tonight.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MIZ075-076-082-083.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for MIZ060>063-068>070- 075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron . Gale Warning from 8 AM to 10 PM EDT Sunday for LHZ421-422.

Lake St Clair . Gale Warning from 8 AM Sunday to 4 AM EDT Monday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . Gale Warning from 8 AM Sunday to 4 AM EDT Monday for LEZ444.



DISCUSSION . DRK MARINE . SP HYDROLOGY . DRK AVIATION . SC

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 8 mi34 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 46°F 1009.8 hPa (+1.0)
AGCM4 16 mi46 min 1008.3 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 35 mi46 min 1008.2 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 37 mi46 min N 12 G 14 1008 hPa

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI3 mi98 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist50°F50°F100%1008.9 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI14 mi41 minSSE 51.00 miFog/Mist50°F50°F100%1009.7 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi38 minN 01.25 miFog/Mist49°F49°F99%1009.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTC

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SE4CalmNE3NE6E6E6E4CalmNE6NE5E10NE5NE8N7NE10NE6NE8E7NE3E5CalmCalmSE4
1 day agoNE7NE8NE10NE6NE7NE7N8N6N9N9NE9NE10NE8N6NE6N10NE8E6NE8E3E5E6SE3S6
2 days agoSE6SE6S7S9S8S7S7SE6S4S6CalmCalmCalmS4S9S6SW12
G17
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G16
W8NW10W8NW6NE10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.