Thursday, April22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mount Clemens, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 8:23PM Thursday April 22, 2021 11:25 PM EDT (03:25 UTC) Moonrise 1:59PMMoonset 3:40AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 947 Pm Edt Thu Apr 22 2021
Rest of tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight...then becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy in the evening becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain in the morning...then rain likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots early in the evening becoming light and variable...then becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy with rain likely in the evening...then partly cloudy after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny becoming mostly Sunny in the afternoon becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:202104230815;;971300 FZUS63 KDTX 230147 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 947 PM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Large sprawling high pressure with 30.20 inch center over the Tennessee Valley will gradually move off the east coast by Saturday morning. Broad area of low pressure 29.80 inches will move east through the Great Lakes this weekend. LCZ460-230815-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Clemens, MI
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location: 42.58, -82.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 222330 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 730 PM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

AVIATION.

Geopotential height rises will support surface ridging across Southeast Michigan during the next 24 hours. Midlevel warming within the 4.0 and 8.0 kft agl layer will lead to SKC overnight. Diurnal heating will lead to altocumulus development at some 7.0 to 8.0 kft agl Friday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* None

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 331 PM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

DISCUSSION .

Flurries have come to an end, with dissipating clouds as surface ridge axis slides over southeast Michigan this evening. This will allow winds to go calm/very light, and with current dew pts in the upper teens-lower 20s, temperatures falling off toward freezing just after midnight appears likely. The question becomes will winds be able to stay decoupled, as we get into good low level warm advection pattern overnight. 12z NAM/regional GEM suggests southwest winds will develop/kick up around/just before 9z (which appears reasonable with the rather tight pressure gradient), as 925 mb temps of +6 to +8 C move overhead. There is also some a hint of some clouds around or just above 5000 feet which track through with the westerly push. Thus, factoring in all the considerations, will call for mins of 30- 34 degrees on average, but will not be issuing a freezing warning due to the marginal/short lived nature of the freezing temperatures (especially compared to last night with the widespread mins in the 20s).

A good amount of insolation and solid low level southwest flow in place for tomorrow should allow temperatures to reach normal values (lower 60s/around 60) before clouds begin to thicken up late in the day.

Goes R precipitable water (850-700 mb) imagery this afternoon shows moisture surging north through the Plains, with the deeper western Gulf of Moisture moisture entering Texas. Split upper level flow looks to be the rule as we head into the weekend, with the northern stream trough/upper level wave sliding through the northern Great Lakes. The southern low/wave looks to be the main show, but should not make a whole lot more progress north than Tennessee or Kentucky, as convection fires up within the deep moisture over the Gulf Coast States. None-the-less, adequate moisture (PW values 0.75- 1.0) reaching into southern Lower Michigan to support showers on Saturday. Still, being caught into between the two systems, and looking at the 50 member ensembles of the EURO as well as 12z Canadian, far from a slam dunk we will see rain. Whatever rain falls should be fairly light, as we remain stable/positive LI's.

Another healthy shot of cold air will arrive on Sunday behind the northern stream wave, with 850 mb temps advertised to drop into the negative low-mid single numbers. Well mixed boundary layer Sunday, likely supporting northwest wind gusts around 30 MPH. Today we reached around 35 mph, but that was helped out by the flurry activity/inverted V soundings.

Monday morning min temperatures look to bottom near the freezing mark once again as ridge axis extending from Ontario/Quebec high slides through.

A significant warmup is then progged for early next week as upper level ridge builds east of the Mississippi River. The Great Lakes region will reside on the outer edge of the Ridge and within the instability/moisture axis, which will support a chance of showers and thunderstorms, with upper level energy over Four Corners region eventually kicking out a low, which will probably arrive in the mid week period (Wednesday-Thursday), supporting a high chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE .

Expansive area of high pressure over the center of the nation will slide to east coast by Saturday morning. This will keep a predominately southwesterly flow through Friday night. A broad area of weak low pressure will move through the Great Lakes Saturday bringing showers and a more southerly wind. Winds veer back northwesterly Saturday night and increasing as the system moves to the east.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . CB DISCUSSION . SF MARINE . DRC

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 8 mi26 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 43°F 1017.9 hPa
AGCM4 16 mi56 min 37°F 44°F1016.7 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 35 mi56 min 40°F 1015.5 hPa

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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NE4
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NW9
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W3

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI3 mi30 minWSW 710.00 miFair40°F19°F42%1017.5 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI14 mi33 minW 310.00 miFair43°F16°F34%1018 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi31 minWSW 310.00 miFair41°F16°F36%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTC

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--NW7--NW7--W5W6W5W4W7W12W14W13
G18
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W12
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W10W16
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NW8W6W4SW5W7
1 day agoW4W5CalmN9N4NW9NW4NW6NW12NW10NW10
G19
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NW9NW9NW9NW10NW10W4N9N3
2 days agoW9
G19
W8W8W7W8W8W7W8W8W10NW10W8NW11W15SW9SW5W6SW4SW4CalmNW4NW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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