Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mount Clemens, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:49AMSunset 4:59PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 3:49 PM EST (20:49 UTC) Moonrise 4:49PMMoonset 7:04AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 932 Am Est Wed Dec 11 2019
Rest of today..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts to 30 knots in the late morning and early afternoon. Partly Sunny with a chance of light snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the evening. Partly Sunny in the morning becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of light rain in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a chance of light rain and snow. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light rain and snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LCZ460 Expires:201912112115;;192400 FZUS63 KDTX 111432 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 932 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Weak low pressure, 30.00 inches, will depart the northern Great Lakes and move into Quebec by this afternoon. Meanwhile, high pressure will build to 30.60 inches over southern Lake Michigan by this evening and maintain a tightened westerly gradient over Lake Huron, leading to marginal gales over the northern portion of the lake today. The high pressure will pass to the south tonight before a low pressure system lifts into northern Lake Michigan on Thursday. LCZ460-112115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Clemens, MI
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location: 42.58, -82.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 111800 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 100 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

AVIATION.

Lingering Lake Michigan moisture plume still affecting terminals from PTK and south along with the passing frontal boundary is allowing light snow showers to persist into the first few hours of the TAF period. Border line VFR/MVFR ceilings will accompany these snow showers with a couple pockets of MVFR VSBY reductions. However, these MVFR VSBY reductions will only be brief if impacting DTW/YIP/DET and between 18 and 19Z. Elevated west winds gusting to 25 to 30 knots will continue through the afternoon with a gradual decrease in gusts into this evening. Subsidence trailing this frontal boundary is already starting to allow some clearing across FNT and northward to mbS with predominately SCT coverage of VFR ceilings. These VFR ceilings should arrive to the southern terminals between 21-00Z after the current moisture plume moves to the east and greater dry air moves into Lower Michigan.

For DTW . Flurries for a few more hours this afternoon with a brief opportunity between 18-19Z to see an MVFR VSBY reduction from a couple snow showers moves towards DTW. A dusting will be possible if these snow showers pass directly over the terminal. Winds have been gusting to 25-30 knots out of the west reaching crosswind threshold at time. These winds continue into the late afternoon before decreasing into the evening.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for ceiling below 5000 feet through the afternoon, low for tonight.

* Medium for westerly wind gusts reaching crosswind threshold today.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 334 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

DISCUSSION .

Lake effect snow showers will continue to drift eastward across lower MI this morning. The slight southwesterly wind component is directing the bulk of these showers in the typical corridor between M59 and I69 but flurries are possible across most of the area. A surge of cold air overnight has kept the radar and satellite images pretty consistent through the night with cloud tags extending pretty far west across Lake MI. This longer fetch has helped the showers persist even as convective depths are limited to only 4-5kft (5kft in the 11.00Z DTX sounding last evening). This limited vertical extent to the showers will limit the potential for more significant snowfall. Though the moisture profile is shallow, a good portion of the moisture and strong low level lapse rates do fall within the DGZ which will help in the efficiency of these showers. A trough axis will sweep across Lake MI this morning and across SE MI by about 18Z this afternoon. Initially this trough will increase precip potential across the area as it picks up the Lake MI moisture plume and pushes it east, but much drier air noted in the models rushes in behind the trough for the afternoon which should bring a fairly quick end to the showers. All in all, most locations may only see flurries or a dusting of snow through the first half of the day, but there is potential with convergence along the trough to get a little better band to set up which may produce up to a quarter inch of snowfall.

The trough this morning will usher in the coldest air of the week which will keep highs only in the upper teens to mid 20s. The drier air will encourage clearing skies under the center of an area of high pressure that will center itself over lower MI tonight. We could see a quick drop in temperatures under favorable radiative conditions sending temps down to around 10F with some of the typically colder locations maybe hitting single digits. Working against even colder temps is incoming mid clouds ahead of a clipper that will skirt across the straits Thursday and Thursday night. These clouds should fill in by early morning which is typically when min temps bottom out.

Models continue to keep the the bulk of the warm frontal forcing well to the north resulting in a dry day for SE MI. There is a low potential of some afternoon showers for the Saginaw Valley and Northern Thumb as the center of the low attempts to clip Mid MI but at this point will keep it limited to a slight chance mention as model soundings are dry in the lowest 8-10kft. A notable increase in temperatures as winds flip to southerly and bring highs back into the 30s. Warming trend will continue through the end of the week with 40s more the norm Friday and Saturday.

Next chance of precip will come Saturday and Sunday as a northern stream trough sweeping through the Great Lakes begins to phase with a strong southern stream system lifting up the east coast. Warm air in place ahead of the trough Saturday will lead to rain but as the trough axis passes east by Sunday morning we should see a change over to snow or a rain/snow mix.

MARINE .

A cold front pushes through the region this morning, bringing a renewed surge of arctic air that will increase instability and deepen the mixed layer over the water today. With a tightened gradient in place, the result will be a strengthening west wind. Best potential for marginal gale-force gusts remains over northern Lake Huron where cold advection and fetch will be maximized, and a Gale Warning remains in effect until this evening. Small Craft Advisories also remain in effect for the Lake Huron nearshore waters from Saginaw Bay to Port Sanilac where wave action will be elevated. Scattered snow squalls and freezing spray will be threats across Lake Huron into tonight, with significant reductions in visibility possible in the heaviest activity. Conditions then improve tonight as high pressure passes just to our south, but this relief will be short-lived as another low pressure system lifts into the Great Lakes on Thursday and brings an increase in southerly flow. The potential exists for gales across southern Lake Huron Thursday evening.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ421-441- 442.

Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LHZ361-362.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LHZ422.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . AA DISCUSSION . DRK MARINE . TF

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 8 mi49 min W 15 G 24 24°F 1028.4 hPa (+3.0)
AGCM4 16 mi55 min 23°F 40°F1027.3 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 35 mi55 min 24°F 1026.4 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 37 mi55 min WNW 12 G 19 23°F 1026.2 hPa-0°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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G19
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G18

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI3 mi1.9 hrsW 17 G 2310.00 miMostly Cloudy25°F9°F52%1027.4 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI14 mi56 minWNW 11 G 2310.00 miPartly Cloudy24°F8°F50%1029.6 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi54 minW 12 G 2110.00 miFair23°F8°F53%1028.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTC

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW12W5SW7W10W8W11W6SW11W10SW6W10SW11SW10SW9SW8SW15
G19
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G25
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1 day agoSW11SW13
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SW12SW10SW12
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2 days agoS11S8S8S6S7S8S8S6S7S6S7S8S8S9S7S8S10S10S11S12S12--S11
G18
--

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.