Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mount Clemens, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 8:22PM Friday August 23, 2019 10:18 AM EDT (14:18 UTC) Moonrise 11:38PMMoonset 1:32PM Illumination 45% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 948 Pm Edt Thu Aug 22 2019
Rest of tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. A chance of waterspouts early in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. A chance of waterspouts. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. A chance of waterspouts early in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Clear becoming mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LCZ460 Expires:201908230815;;060770 FZUS63 KDTX 230148 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 948 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A broad Canadian high will become centered over Upper Michigan on Friday while strengthening to 30.30 inches. The expansive high pressure system will move across eastern Ontario on Saturday before becoming centered over the Canadian Maritimes by the end of the weekend. LCZ460-230815-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Clemens, MI
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location: 42.58, -82.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 230958
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
558 am edt Fri aug 23 2019

Aviation
High pressure building into the region will result inVFR conditions
through the TAF period. Could be some sub 5kft CIGS possible this
afternoon as diurnal CU field develops with the aid of northeasterly
flow off the lakes pushing low level moisture across the area.

Overall the sounding looks very dry above 7kft thus deep mixing
should erode the cloud field easily this evening. Winds will remain
north northeast with speeds to about 10 knots in best mixing this
afternoon.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* medium for cigs AOB 5kft for a period of time Friday afternoon.

Prev discussion
Issued at 402 am edt Fri aug 23 2019
discussion...

continued influence of larger scale high pressure starts the day
across lower michigan but not without some interaction from the
great lakes that becomes more evident during the morning. Surface
and model analysis fields suggest a hybrid backdoor front aggregate
trough across superior and northern huron that marks a slight
reinforcement of cool air. Clouds along and north of the surface
trough extend well north into ontario and are more of the mid level
variety supported by the trough axis around 500 mb. This trough axis
pivots southeastward during the morning and pulls the superior huron
surface trough southward into southern lake huron and thumb region.

The upstream clouds then represent adequate moisture for scattered
showers due to instability over the warm lake water and from daytime
heating over the land by late morning through afternoon. Hi res
model solutions help identify the affected land area limited to the
thumb region before showers dissipate toward evening. This leaves
another nice day across the rest of SE michigan with some pockets of
mid clouds during the morning giving way to cumulus this afternoon
along with a component of clouds moving southward from the thumb.

Guidance temperature projections remain on the low side of normal
values that are in the upper 70s to around 80 for highs and in the
upper 50s to around 60 for lows today through this weekend.

Any remnant of the surface trough fills and releases inland in a
hybrid lake breeze fashion with the loss of daytime heating during
the evening. A reinforcement of slightly modified but still cooler
air then washes over the region during the night on light but steady
ne wind that is supplied by high pressure strengthening over
northern ontario. Both the surface high and ridge aloft drift across
the great lakes and combine for ideal late summer weather during the
weekend. Temperatures remain slightly below normal Saturday and then
moderate slightly by Sunday.

Prospects for rain increase Monday through the early week as the
upper level blocking pattern slowly matures. The current upper level
low and trough over the rockies make it into the plains by Monday
and latch on to the front stalled near the gulf coast. That leaves
little doubt about the moisture supply as the lead wave moves into
the great lakes and across SE michigan Monday afternoon and night.

Unsettled weather continues through Tuesday as a strong pacific cold
front surges across the region. Global model solutions project
development of a large and strong low pressure system over central
canada and the northern plains which likely has high predictability
overall but still with timing questions on the frontal passage
across SE michigan. Thunderstorm potential will be dependent on
refinement of this timing Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Marine...

canadian high pressure will become centered over the northern great
lakes today before departing to eastern canada over the weekend.

This system will influence the region through the end of the
weekend. A weakening gradient will attempt to keep winds down but
light to modest northerly winds will persist through this evening as
cold air advection produces unstable conditions. Winds and waves
should stay just below small craft criteria. This developing
instability will also support a chance for waterspouts today.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Drk
discussion... Bt
marine... ... .Drk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 8 mi19 min NNE 8 G 12 66°F 1022 hPa (+1.3)
45147 - Lake St Clair 13 mi19 min Calm 65°F 74°F1 ft1020.8 hPa (+1.6)
AGCM4 16 mi49 min 64°F 73°F1021.1 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 35 mi49 min 68°F 1020.7 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 37 mi49 min N 4.1 G 8.9 66°F 1020.7 hPa53°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI3 mi2.4 hrsNNW 610.00 miA Few Clouds58°F54°F86%1020.7 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI14 mi2.4 hrsN 310.00 miFair60°F52°F75%1020.8 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi1.7 hrsN 510.00 miFair64°F52°F67%1022 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTC

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N7NW8N7N8N8N12
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N14NE11NE9--NE7N5CalmCalmN5N4NW4NW6N6NW6N6N8N8
1 day agoCalmS3S8SE8NW5W7W9W13W10W10--W4N10N6N7N5N7N8N6N6N6N7N8N7
2 days agoSE7SE10SE11SE12SE10SE12SE10SE9S10SE10SW27
G43
N9CalmSW5W7--S3SW4CalmNW3W5NW7NW5N6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.