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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 305 Pm Cdt Tue Oct 3 2023
Through early evening..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy through around midnight then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday..South wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots late in the afternoon. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight, then becoming west 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday..West wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots late in the morning, then backing southwest early in the afternoon becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 031519 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1019 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

UPDATE
(Issued 1020 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023)

The forecast remains on track. With mostly clear skies evident across the region, daytime heating should take full effect and put our daytime highs in the mid 80s today. A weak lake breeze (similar to yesterday) is expected to add a slight southeasterly component to the southerly wind field late this afternoon, but may only reach a few miles inland from Lake Michigan.

Sheppard

SHORT TERM
(Issued 406 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023)

Today through Thursday:

Key Messages:

- Unseasonably warm temperatures continue today; record highs possible at Madison.
- Modest cold front to bring next chances for showers and a few thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday night.
- Stronger cold front moves into the area later Thursday afternoon and may bring more showers.

The unseasonably warm temperatures will continue today across the area, as the 500 mb ridge axis slowly shifts to the east of the region. Modest south to southeast winds are expected once again, though there should be some diurnal cumulus clouds that develop this afternoon. Highs in the middle 80s F are anticipated again across most of the area, given the persistent pattern.

These are supported by most CMC members and high (70 to 80 percent or higher) probabilities for greater than 80 degree F highs from the NBM over most of the area. The NBM values themselves are too cool, and bumped them up into the middle 80s F.
Madion's record high is 85, which may be reached. Milwaukee's record high is 86, and reaching that will depend on when the lake breeze reaches that location.

Models and ensembles continue to show the pattern shift for Wednesday into Thursday across the region, with the 500 mb trough slowly working into the Western Great Lakes region from the Northern and Central Plains. This will allow a modest initial cold front to move east into the area Wednesday, then slows down as it shifts through the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

The front has modest upward vertical motion with it, and has some upper divergence support from the left exit region of a jet streak. There is enough moisture with the front to bring some chances (40 to 50 percent) for showers and a few thunderstorms (20 percent), given some modest mean layer CAPE. CAMs suggest that some weakening showers may move into the area Wednesday morning, before perhaps seeing some redevelopment later in the day. Most of this activity may linger over far eastern parts of the area later Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Ensembles suggest light QPF (under 0.05 inches) from most members of the EPS/GEFS/CMC.

A secondary and stronger cold front may push east into the area later Thursday afternoon, which should bring at least small chances (20 percent) for showers. This will mark the leading edge of colder air moving into the region.

Wood

LONG TERM
(Issued 406 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023)

Thursday night through Monday:

A trailing cold front from low pressure tracking across Ontario will move across srn WI early Thu eve. Fcst soundings do show moisture in the 850-700 mb layer that could lead to showers (20%)
if enough lift is present.

A digging and amplifying upper trough from Canada into the Great Lakes is well-depicted by the GEFS and EC ensemble for Fri. This will enhance the wnwly winds and cold advection, and the passage of the 534-540 DM thickness trough will lead to instability showers (50%). Afterward the large trough will induce cyclogenesis and eventual occlusion from New England into Quebec. A small number of model members retrograde the occlusion back into the Great Lakes, but will count on the low remaining in Quebec for this fcst.

Expect 850 mb temps will fall to near 0C for Fri-Sat with high temps in the 50s and lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. A weak n-s sfc ridge will then settle over the MS River Valley for Sun- Mon with rebounding temps.

Gehring

AVIATION
(Issued 1020 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023)

VFR will prevail today with breezy south winds, and perhaps some diurnal cumulus around 4 kft. Some airports in counties bordering Lake Michigan may experience a weak lake breeze this afternoon / evening, turning winds slightly southeasterly. This has been included in TAFs already, and will be updated if needed. Clouds associated with a cold front approach from the west tonight, mainly between 10 kft and 20 kft. Scattered showers approach from the west Wednesday morning, with precip chances up to 30%. TAFs valid beyond 18z Wednesday are more likely to include rainfall (50% chances) as the showers are expected to reorganize and due to daytime heating. Thunder will be possible (30%).

Sheppard

MARINE
(Issued 406 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023)

High pressure around 30.2 inches will slowly move east of the Lower Great Lakes region today. This will continue to bring modest south to southeast winds across Lake Michigan.

A cold front will enter the region from the west Wednesday and into Lake Michigan Wednesday night into Thursday. Increasing south winds are anticipated ahead of the front Wednesday, with increasing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. South to southwest wind gusts may approach Small Craft Advisory levels Wednesday.

Gusty west to northwest winds are then expected Thursday night into the weekend, with building waves, as cooler air moves in.
There is some potential for gusts exceeding 30 knots Friday afternoon into Saturday, and will continue to monitor for gale force gusts during this period. Small Craft Advisory level winds look likely for Friday into the weekend for the nearshore waters.

In addition, chances (around 30 percent) for showers and thunderstorms are forecast for Friday afternoon into Saturday over the open waters of Lake Michigan. There looks to be a potential for some waterspouts as well during this period.

Wood

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

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