Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cortland, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
930 AM Update...

Steady showers continue this morning with minimal changes needed. Updated temperatures and dew points using current observations, otherwise previous forecast still applies.

545 AM Update...

Rain showers across the area are behaving as forecasted with scattered showers across much of the area. No updates were made as the forecast remain on track.

320 AM Update...

Rain showers continue across the region tonight. The heaviest band is currently across Oneida county, slowly moving to the N.
Light showers and drizzle remain in behind the band across much of the CWA, and this is expected to remain through the morning hours.

The main driver of our weather today will be a stacked low pressure system centered over eastern Lake Erie. This low will push lobes of vorticity through the region today, bringing rain showers across the CWA for much of the day. CAMs are showing a large area of steady rain developing early in the afternoon across central PA, moving to the NNE as the day progresses. This coincides with the upper level portion of the low decoupling from the mid and low levels and sliding eastward as the afternoon progresses. Once the upper low is east of our area later this evening, rain shower coverage across the CWA lowers as we see reduced upper air support, but mid and low level lift will be sufficient to keep scattered rain showers going Thursday night.

Another upper level shortwave will dig into the area Friday from the NW. While not as strong as the previous low, it will help enhance the lift from the mid level and surface low. Its current forecasted position brings more steady rain and drizzle north of the Southern Tier Friday, with scattered showers across The Twin Tiers into the Catskills and Poconos. A deepening low off the New England coast will grab energy from the mid and surface low over our region, finally pulling them out of the area by Friday afternoon.

All told, we should see an additional 0.5 to 0.75 inches of rain on top of what already fell yesterday, with the higher amounts expected across areas along and east of I-81 as we should see some upslope enhancement in these areas. Flooding concerns remain low as rainfall rates and amounts are far below flash flood guidance.

Temperatures will remain 15-20 degrees below normal today and tomorrow as clouds, rain and NW flow pushing in cold Canadian air will make it feel more like March than the end of May. Highs are expected to be in the upper 40s to low 50s across the region.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
135 PM Update...
A closed upper low stalled over New England will continue to bring moisture and cool conditions to CNY and NEPA into this weekend with unsettled weather lingering into Sunday. It does appear that Sunday will feature at least more times of drier weather than Saturday as upper heights slowly build, but some afternoon instability and a kicker short wave will spark more shower activity into the evening hours. Temperatures will remain cool in this pattern with 50s expected Saturday and a better shot at 60s on Sunday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
135 PM Update...
Memorial Day looks to be one of the better days of the week with a generally dry day in the offing with at least partial sunshine.
Blended guidance suggests the potential for enough afternoon instability to generate widely scattered showers. Temperatures should reach the upper 60s and lower 70s. The forecast confidence becomes very low on Tuesday with models not in agreement on a wave moving through the Mid-Atlantic. NBM guidance favors the wetter solution spreading across NEPA and CNY while the ECMWF shows all but the NEPA counties as mainly dry. Couple this with another deep trough forming over the Great Lakes region on Wednesday and the remainder of the week looks to get us back into another unsettled pattern with showers and unseasonable temperatures through Thursday...and likely into Friday.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Rain showers continue to keep ceilings at MVFR and Fuel alt across much of the region through the afternoon and early evening. Upslope flow at BGM will allow ceilings to alternate between Fuel Alt to IFR before finally settling into IFR for the rest of the period.

All terminals are expected to fall to IFR ceilings tonight as rain showers let up, winds calm down and temps cool. BGM/ELM/ITH could also see visby drop to IFR as well, especially if winds become calm.

Outlook...

Friday into Saturday...Wet pattern persists with restrictions and waves of rain showers likely.

Sunday into Monday...Isolated showers with a low chance of restrictions.

Tuesday...High pressure builds in with VFR conditions possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.